275 County Road 3417 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$180,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1988 0.34 ac lot $321/sqft · 238% above area Est $190k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained home on just over 0.3 acres in Cleveland, TX. Fully gated residence for privacy, featuring 4 spacious bedrooms, a large second-floor loft, and plenty of room for outdoor living. No HOA. Just 45 minutes from Downtown Houston or 1 hour to Lake Livingston, the perfect blend of country serenity and city convenience. Schedule your tour today.

Key facts

• Country serenity
• Gated residence
• City convenience

Tags

• GATED RESIDENCE
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• COUNTRY SERENITY
• CITY CONVENIENCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $17 ($209/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,268 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.00%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,990
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -5.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-26,496
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-15,094
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,543 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,391/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,521

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-11
   price $180,000 362-char remark

   Show marketing remark (362 chars)

   Beautifully maintained home on just over 0.3 acres in Cleveland, TX. Fully gated residence for privacy, featuring 4 spacious bedrooms, a large second-floor loft, and plenty of room for outdoor living. No HOA. Just 45 minutes from Downtown Houston or 1 hour to Lake Livingston, the perfect blend of country serenity and city convenience. Schedule your tour today.

2. 2026-04-08
   price $200,000 362-char remark

   Show marketing remark (362 chars)

   Beautifully maintained home on just over 0.3 acres in Cleveland, TX. Fully gated residence for privacy, featuring 4 spacious bedrooms, a large second-floor loft, and plenty of room for outdoor living. No HOA. Just 45 minutes from Downtown Houston or 1 hour to Lake Livingston, the perfect blend of country serenity and city convenience. Schedule your tour today.

3. 2026-04-08
   listed $165,000 Active 362-char remark

   Show marketing remark (362 chars)

   Beautifully maintained home on just over 0.3 acres in Cleveland, TX. Fully gated residence for privacy, featuring 4 spacious bedrooms, a large second-floor loft, and plenty of room for outdoor living. No HOA. Just 45 minutes from Downtown Houston or 1 hour to Lake Livingston, the perfect blend of country serenity and city convenience. Schedule your tour today.

4. 2020-09-14
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,391 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,294 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,903/yr (+$159/mo · 136.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,512
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$1,391
• − Insurance: −$1,697
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,481
• − Management: −$1,481
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$2,858
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$686
• After-tax cash flow: $894/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+9.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2020-09-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,391 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.