1351 Pepper Dr #16 · Bostonia, CA 92021

$259,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured · 119 Days on market

Built 2005 Est $250k · at est. ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Senior Living at its best. Welcome to this 55+ Gated and resident owned community. Minutes from Pool and club house. The community is incredibly maintained. This 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom almost 1700 square feet with master bedroom retreat/Office has been totally redone. All new Paint-new, Luxury vinyl flooring, new lighting throughout, Ceiling fans, window covering. Brand-New stainless-steel appliances. Nice size shed. This home is move in ready.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Move in ready
• Community pool

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• RESIDENT OWNED COMMUNITY
• MASTER BEDROOM RETREAT
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• MOVE IN READY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a park setting (Royal View Garden); Directions: Freeway 8 east to Second Ave north, right on Pepper Drive
• HOA & community: Senior community; Land lease community with a land lease of $625

Exterior

• Parking: Located in the Royal View Garden park
• Home design: Single-story mobile/manufactured home (approx. 28' x 60'); Entry at level 1
• Construction: Year built per builder records
• Exterior features: Community pool; Gutters; Dog park; Street lighting; Storm drains; Lot in 0–1 unit per acre density (per assessor data)

Interior

• Bedrooms: All bedrooms located on the main/entry level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; All bedrooms on the main level; Has a view
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in a dedicated room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $641 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $259k).
• Recommended offer: $236k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 6.0% in Bostonia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#383 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing B+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 238 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,802/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 4178% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,690 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.61%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $250,320
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1315 Pepper Dr #67	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-14%)	3mo	$145,000	$101	66
1120 Pepper Dr #121	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,534 (-9%)	14mo	$240,000	$156	48
1120 Pepper Dr #17	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-14%)	4mo	$125,000	$87	46
12044 Royal Rd #5	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-11%)	19mo	$224,000	$149	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-9,417
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $12,304
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92021

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,802 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,269/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $641

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,990

Max offer price $259,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $788	-5% $715	+0% $641	+5% $568	+10% $495
Rent	-10% $420	-5% $531	+0% $641	+5% $752	+10% $863
Rate	-1.0pp $772	-0.5pp $707	base $641	+0.5pp $574	+1.0pp $506

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8031 Winter Gardens Blvd El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1124	$2,995	$2.66	0d	1	0.28mi
816 Oro St El Cajon, CA	3.0	1.0	1235	$3,400	$2.75	2d	1	1.04mi
2000 E Main St El Cajon, CA	3.0	1.5–2.5	1165	$3,300	$2.83	0d	1	1.04mi
1219 Denver Ln Unit 1465013P El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.5	1194	$8,558	$7.17	21d	1	1.09mi
1171 Marline Ave Unit 1171-A El Cajon, CA	3.0	1.5	1141	$3,100	$2.72	0d	1	1.11mi
360 E Bradley Ave El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1116	$2,974	$2.66	0d	4	1.38mi
422 Shady Ln El Cajon, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	900	$2,305	$2.56	0d	19	1.39mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,000 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,000 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,000 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,000 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,000 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,000 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,000 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,000 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $259,000 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $259,000 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,000 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,000 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,000 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,000 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    status Active
16. 2026-04-13
    price $259,000
17. 2026-03-20
    price $265,000
18. 2026-02-28
    price $269,000
19. 2026-02-18
    listed $269,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,269 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,968 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: +$699/yr (+$58/mo · 55.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,621
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$1,269
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,690
• − Management: −$2,690
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable income: $3,635
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$872
• After-tax cash flow: $6,825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grossmont Union High
• NCES district ID: 0616230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,801
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3810
• State rank: #173 of 517 in CA

Livability — Bostonia

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #383
• US rank: #13065

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bostonia, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,501
• Household income: $74,013
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 4178.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Arab 6% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 7% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -654.88%
• Current HPI: 335.0617
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $259,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $265,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $269,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $269,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,269 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.