1285 Echo Hills Rd · Elliston, VA 24087

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,407 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1992 5.77 ac lot Est $336k · 6% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Incredible view from deck, LR & Master BR. Very private & quiet large lot 5.7 ac. & some wooded. It has a rear covered deck. New heatpump. H/W in Living areas, laminate in BR's, pull down stairs for storage in attic. Cedar siding. 2 bay windows. All new interior paint & deck freshly stained. Water softener. Will leave riding mower. Horses permitted. Owner has all maint. records on home.

Key facts

• 5.7 acres
• Cathedral ceilings
• Full wall of windows

Tags

• 5.7 ACRES
• FULL WALL OF WINDOWS
• VIEWS OF TREES
• MOUNTAIN PEAKS
• DECK
• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-472 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (26.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (40.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (40.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#342 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Montgomery County Public School District (urban): math 57% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #47 of 131 in VA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Eastern Montgomery Elementary (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 385 students, 76% FRL); Shawsville Middle (math 41% / reading 56%, grade C-, #244 of 342 statewide, top 72%, 208 students, 74% FRL); Eastern Montgomery High (math 72% / reading 77%, grade B+, #107 of 319 statewide, top 37%, 282 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 32% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 323 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $225k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $188,083 (40.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.42%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $336,273
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1285 Echo Hills Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,407 (0%)	0mo	$336,000	$239	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $141,377
• Equity at exit: $283,777

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.99×
• Total profit: $439,770
• Equity at exit: $611,976

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24087

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,881 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,799/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $-472

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,479

Max offer price $231,584

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-294	-5% $-383	+0% $-472	+5% $-561	+10% $-651
Rent	-10% $-621	-5% $-546	+0% $-472	+5% $-398	+10% $-324
Rate	-1.0pp $-314	-0.5pp $-392	base $-472	+0.5pp $-554	+1.0pp $-637

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   listed $315,000 Active
3. 2009-04-24
   soldstatus $225,000 410-char remark

   Show marketing remark (410 chars)

   Incredible view from deck, LR & Master BR. Very private & quiet large lot 5.7 ac. & some wooded. It has a rear covered deck. New heatpump. H/W in Living areas, laminate in BR's, pull down stairs for storage in attic. Cedar siding. 2 bay windows. All new interior paint & deck freshly stained. Water softener. Will leave riding mower. Horses permitted. Owner has all maint. records on home.

4. 2009-04-20
   soldstatus $225,000
5. 2008-10-07
   listed $228,900 410-char remark

   Show marketing remark (410 chars)

   Incredible view from deck, LR & Master BR. Very private & quiet large lot 5.7 ac. & some wooded. It has a rear covered deck. New heatpump. H/W in Living areas, laminate in BR's, pull down stairs for storage in attic. Cedar siding. 2 bay windows. All new interior paint & deck freshly stained. Water softener. Will leave riding mower. Horses permitted. Owner has all maint. records on home.

6. 2007-02-16
   soldstatus $217,500
7. 2001-02-15
   soldstatus $158,500
8. 2001-02-15
   soldstatus $158,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,799 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,583 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: +$784/yr (+$65/mo · 43.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,570
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$1,799
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,806
• − Management: −$1,806
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$11,524
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,766
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102520
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $46,618
• Composite: 53.6/100
• National rank: #1440
• State rank: #47 of 131 in VA

Livability — Elliston

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #13622

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,948

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,748 people
• By 2030: 110,301 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 115,652 · +9.4%
• By 2050: 119,651 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 126,005 · +19.2%
• By 2100: 129,771 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 47.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 4.9pp · 2024: 3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.5 2020: D+5.8 2016: D+1.3 2012: R+0.2 2008: D+4.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.65%
• Current HPI: 258.6535
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+98.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — MLSRV
• 2026-04-13 Listed $315,000 MLSRV
• 2009-04-24 Sold (MLS) $225,000 MLSRV
• 2009-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2008-10-07 Listed $228,900 MLSRV
• 2007-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $217,500 Public Records
• 2001-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $158,500 Public Records
• 2001-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $158,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,799 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.