425 30th Ave W Unit C204 · South Bradenton, FL 34205

$85,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Condo public records · 407 Days on market

Built 1981 $597/mo HOA · 39% of rent ↓ 30% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new carpeting installed 5/4/26! Bring all offers! This is a Very Affordable condo in a great location with wonderful water views! Big kitchen with breakfast bar and small family room off the kitchen. Screened porch overlooks beautiful lake with fountains, gazebo, and lots of wildlife! 2 big bedrooms and 2 baths. New Hot Water Heater a year ago and new AC in 2021. Big walk-in closet in master bedroom and kitchen pantry. Special Storage Area. Assigned parking right in front of this unit. Gated community 24/7 located near shopping and restaurants and a quick drive to beautiful beaches! This is a corner unit tucked in the corner where the building jogs back. Kitchen and baths could use so

Key facts

• Gated community
• Lake views
• Big kitchen

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• BIG KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• SCREENED PORCH
• GATED COMMUNITY
• ASSIGNED PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Management: Full time
• Financial info: Total annual fees approximately $7,164; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee: $597 (includes cable TV, common area taxes, pool, reserves, insurance, internet, maintenance structure and grounds, management, pest control, private road, recreational facilities, sewer, trash, water); Association amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, tennis courts, pickleball courts, shuffleboard, recreation facilities, storage, trails, laundry, maintenance; Association approval required; Buyer approval required; Deed restrictions and special community restrictions; Senior community; Pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Guest parking
• Security: Gated community (gate code required); Full-time management; Vehicle restrictions enforced
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Underground utilities
• Home design: Residential condominium; One level; Faces north; Completed condition; Located in Building C, Unit on 2nd floor; Stories total: 3
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Membrane and shingle roof; Block foundation; Building area listed (1122 total; living area reported separately)
• Exterior features: Rear screened porch; Outdoor kitchen; Lighting; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Storage; Tennis courts; In-ground heated gunite pool with tile and lighting; Lakefront with lake view and lake access (approx. 20 ft frontage); Cleared lot on a cul-de-sac; Asphalt/paved private maintained road; Oak trees and landscaped/wooded vegetation; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Concrete flooring; Linoleum flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room and dining room combo; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Smoke detector(s); Elevator in building
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $93 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.1% in South Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in FL, #3,092 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 407 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (37%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 39% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 407 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.70%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-11,968
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-18,661
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34205

• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 319
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,526 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $411/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$597
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,408

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
425 30th Ave W Unit C308 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	924	$1,590	$1.72	23d	1	0.03mi
515 30th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,375	$1.37	16d	2	0.03mi
505 30th Ave W Unit E406 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,450	$1.45	23d	1	0.07mi
305 30th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	987	$1,400	$1.42	23d	2	0.08mi
305 30th Ave W Unit A207 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,400	$1.33	14d	1	0.08mi
390 301 Blvd W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,495	$1.33	23d	1	0.15mi
603 27th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1365	$1,250	$0.92	23d	1	0.25mi
907 34th Ave W Unit B Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,795	$1.79	23d	1	0.33mi
907 34th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	985	$1,599	$1.62	19d	1	0.33mi
919 34th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	950	$1,599	$1.68	11d	1	0.35mi
302 26th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1043	$1,575	$1.51	2d	23	0.36mi
350 34th Avenue Dr E Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	893	$1,335	$1.49	1d	6	0.49mi
2244 9th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	768	$1,323	$1.72	23d	4	0.50mi
2422 11th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,445	$1.61	23d	1	0.51mi
805 22nd Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	790	$1,200	$1.52	23d	1	0.51mi
1308 36th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	715	$1,199	$1.68	23d	1	0.55mi
702 21st Ave W Unit C Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	3d	1	0.57mi
2409 13th St W Apt 2 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	770	$1,175	$1.53	23d	1	0.58mi
313 24th Ave E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,400	$1.90	23d	1	0.59mi
2117 11th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	850	$1,295	$1.52	23d	1	0.60mi
2019 5th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	750	$1,575	$2.10	3d	22	0.60mi
616 33rd Ave E Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	750	$1,600	$2.13	23d	1	0.63mi
2127 13th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,149	$1.64	23d	1	0.65mi
3506 14th St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	874	$1,725	$1.97	23d	5	0.67mi
2017 12th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	720	$1,300	$1.81	23d	1	0.68mi
718 26th Ave E Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,600	$2.13	23d	1	0.68mi
712 26th Ave E Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,600	$2.13	23d	1	0.69mi
505 22nd Ter E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1039	$1,989	$1.91	2d	1	0.72mi
2402 9th St E Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1137	$2,000	$1.76	23d	1	0.80mi
1319 18th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1185	$1,795	$1.51	23d	1	0.85mi
1701 13th St W Apt A Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,395	$1.64	2d	1	0.88mi
1418 18th Avenue Dr W Unit 1418 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	23d	1	0.89mi
1505 18th Avenue Dr W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	886	$1,875	$2.12	16d	1	0.93mi
2001 25th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1370	$3,000	$2.19	19d	1	0.93mi
2205 20th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	810	$1,850	$2.28	11d	1	0.97mi
1501 13th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	1050	$1,199	$1.14	23d	1	0.98mi
723 44th Ave E Unit 5 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1350	$1,650	$1.22	16d	1	1.00mi
1515 15th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	23d	1	1.02mi
203 46th Avenue Ter W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	880	$1,099	$1.25	3d	1	1.02mi
3808 11th St E Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,600	$1.88	23d	1	1.03mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $597 · $7,164/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurityparking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 407 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 406 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 405 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $85,000 Active 404 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 404 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 402 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 401 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 399 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 398 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 397 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 396 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 392 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 391 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 390 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 389 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    status Active
17. 2026-05-01
    status Active
18. 2026-05-01
    status Pending
19. 2026-04-28
    status Active
20. 2026-04-26
    status Pending
21. 2026-03-24
    price $95,000
22. 2026-02-04
    price $99,000
23. 2025-07-14
    price $110,000
24. 2025-06-17
    status Active
25. 2025-06-15
    status Pending
26. 2025-05-01
    listed $135,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $411 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $706 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: +$295/yr (+$25/mo · 71.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$411
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,465
• − Management: −$1,465
• − HOA: −$7,164
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $148
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$36
• After-tax cash flow: $1,082/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — South Bradenton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3092

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Bradenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,946
• Household income: $52,525
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1736.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -310.18%
• Current HPI: 369.8239
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.43%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-29.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $95,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $99,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-17 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-01 Listed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $411 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.