4644 White Ash Dr · Murphy, MO 63049

$165,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,404 sqft · Other public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1988 9,365 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful manufactured home with divided floor plan. Very open with living room and family room that features gas fireplace. Main Floor Master Bedroom Suite with full bath. Vaulted ceilings. Stainless Steel Appliances. Main Floor Laundry. Large deck off back of home with large storage shed. Home has been well cared for.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Large storage sheds
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• DIVIDED FLOOR PLAN
• GAS FIREPLACE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY
• LARGE DECK
• LARGE STORAGE SHEDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single family residence (manufactured house); One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation (permanent); Year built per public records
• Exterior features: Deck; Panel doors; Level lot; Concrete road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range/oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms, all on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, both on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling components
• Interior features: Pantry; Cathedral ceilings; Bay windows; Insulated windows; Has fireplace (family room)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (main level); Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $597 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 3.2% in Murphy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#461 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Northwest R-I (suburban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #128 of 324 in MO (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Brennan Woods Elem. (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #190 of 1,115 statewide, top 19%, 481 students, 31% FRL); Northwest High (math 26% / reading 56%, grade F, #236 of 521 statewide, top 45%, 1,841 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.50%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $11,234
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $58,605
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63049

• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,081 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,361/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $597

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,326

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $690	-5% $643	+0% $597	+5% $550	+10% $503
Rent	-10% $432	-5% $514	+0% $597	+5% $679	+10% $761
Rate	-1.0pp $680	-0.5pp $639	base $597	+0.5pp $554	+1.0pp $510

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
301 Clay Creek Trl Fenton, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1071	$2,081	$1.94	2d	17	0.90mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricestatusdays on market $165,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-05-22
   listed $175,000 Active
3. 2026-05-22
   historical $175,000
4. 2021-03-01
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (328 chars)

   Beautiful manufactured home with divided floor plan. Very open with living room and family room that features gas fireplace. Main Floor Master Bedroom Suite with full bath. Vaulted ceilings. Stainless Steel Appliances. Main Floor Laundry. Large deck off back of home with large storage shed. Home has been well cared for.

5. 2021-03-01
   status Pending 328-char remark

   Show marketing remark (328 chars)

   Beautiful manufactured home with divided floor plan. Very open with living room and family room that features gas fireplace. Main Floor Master Bedroom Suite with full bath. Vaulted ceilings. Stainless Steel Appliances. Main Floor Laundry. Large deck off back of home with large storage shed. Home has been well cared for.

6. 2021-02-26
   soldstatus Closed 328-char remark

   Show marketing remark (328 chars)

   Beautiful manufactured home with divided floor plan. Very open with living room and family room that features gas fireplace. Main Floor Master Bedroom Suite with full bath. Vaulted ceilings. Stainless Steel Appliances. Main Floor Laundry. Large deck off back of home with large storage shed. Home has been well cared for.

7. 2020-08-18
   listed $120,000 Active 328-char remark

   Show marketing remark (328 chars)

   Beautiful manufactured home with divided floor plan. Very open with living room and family room that features gas fireplace. Main Floor Master Bedroom Suite with full bath. Vaulted ceilings. Stainless Steel Appliances. Main Floor Laundry. Large deck off back of home with large storage shed. Home has been well cared for.

8. 2020-08-18
   historical Active Under Contract 328-char remark

   Show marketing remark (328 chars)

   Beautiful manufactured home with divided floor plan. Very open with living room and family room that features gas fireplace. Main Floor Master Bedroom Suite with full bath. Vaulted ceilings. Stainless Steel Appliances. Main Floor Laundry. Large deck off back of home with large storage shed. Home has been well cared for.

9. 2013-08-28
   soldstatus
10. 2013-08-26
    soldstatus 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Beautiful home with divided floor plan. Kitchen has been updated. Separate living room and family room. Master bedroom has full master bath. Ceiling fans. Large 2-tier deck in back of home with a large storage shed. Washer & Dryer Stay.

11. 2013-04-02
    listed $89,900 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Beautiful home with divided floor plan. Kitchen has been updated. Separate living room and family room. Master bedroom has full master bath. Ceiling fans. Large 2-tier deck in back of home with a large storage shed. Washer & Dryer Stay.

12. 2001-09-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,361 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,600 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$240/yr (+$20/mo · 17.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,972
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,361
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,998
• − Management: −$1,998
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $4,748
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,140
• After-tax cash flow: $6,019/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest R-I
• NCES district ID: 2922890
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,998
• Composite: 35.05/100
• National rank: #5034
• State rank: #128 of 324 in MO

Livability — Murphy

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #461
• US rank: #18506

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Murphy, MO
• Population (ZIP): 17,480

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,088 people
• By 2030: 238,365 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 240,156 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 234,651 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 214,569 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 179,697 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.7) · D 31.0% · R 67.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -36.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.7 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+12.7 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -222.26%
• Current HPI: 185.2698
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+94.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $175,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-22 Coming Soon $175,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-03-01 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-26 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-18 Listed $120,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-18 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-08-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-08-26 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-02 Listed $89,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-09-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,361 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.