2950 E Thompson Ave · New Kingman-Butler, AZ 86409

$119,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Land public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1988 6,098 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOVE IN READY!! Fully fenced, 2 bedrooms 2 baths with a third room that would work as a third bedroom. (does not have closet). Features updated lighting, updated oven hood, new garbage disposal, new shed with electrical within the last couple years, new mini split for added comfort (2025), updated laminate flooring. This is a very comfortable home for a young family or retirees. Tie downs were installed 2025.

Key facts

• Updated oven hood
• New garbage disposal
• Fully fenced

Tags

• FULLY FENCED
• UPDATED LIGHTING
• UPDATED OVEN HOOD
• NEW GARBAGE DISPOSAL
• NEW SHED WITH ELECTRICAL
• NEW MINI SPLIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $205 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $115k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.3% in New Kingman-Butler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kingman Unified School District (79598) (town): math 19% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #179 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 643 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $119k implies a 297% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,430 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.38%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-9,618
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-4,729
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86409

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 643
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,041

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2915 E Thompson Ave Kingman, AZ	2.0	2.0	792	$1,150	$1.45	43d	1	0.07mi
2840 E Leroy Ave Kingman, AZ	1.0	1.0	728	$1,000	$1.37	43d	1	0.15mi
2995 E Ames Ave Kingman, AZ	3.0	2.0	1221	$1,250	$1.02	44d	1	0.29mi
2381 E Butler Ave Kingman, AZ	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	43d	1	0.71mi
2658 E Punta Vista Kingman, AZ	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,700	$1.41	43d	1	0.75mi
3356 E El Tovar Ave Kingman, AZ	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,975	$1.46	43d	1	0.80mi
3665 E Koval Dr Kingman, AZ	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,665	$1.19	13d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-18
   price $119,000
3. 2026-03-13
   price $125,000
4. 2026-02-24
   listed $130,000 Active
5. 2025-07-25
   status Active
6. 2025-07-25
   price $115,000
7. 2025-07-16
   status Pending
8. 2025-07-09
   price $118,000
9. 2025-07-03
   price $125,000
10. 2025-06-23
    price $130,000
11. 2025-05-30
    price $135,000
12. 2025-05-29
    status Active
13. 2025-05-12
    status Pending
14. 2025-04-29
    price $145,000
15. 2025-04-14
    listed $150,000 Active
16. 2015-09-08
    soldstatus $30,000
17. 2010-10-25
    soldstatus $59,900
18. 2007-05-29
    soldstatus $89,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,604
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $600
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$144
• After-tax cash flow: $2,315/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingman Unified School District (79598)
• NCES district ID: 0400295
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,760
• Composite: 17.87/100
• National rank: #9002
• State rank: #179 of 249 in AZ

Livability — New Kingman-Butler

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Kingman-Butler, AZ
• County: Mohave County · 181,906 people
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 30,365
• Household income: $50,852
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 688.0

Population outlook (Mohave County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 209,184 people
• By 2030: 209,674 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 205,897 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 196,810 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 169,454 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 136,630 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Mohave

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.8) · D 21.8% · R 77.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -55.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.8 2020: R+51.3 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.90%
• Current HPI: 280.1884
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.33%
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+32.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — WARDEX
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $119,000 WARDEX
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $125,000 WARDEX
• 2026-02-24 Listed $130,000 WARDEX
• 2025-07-25 Relisted — WARDEX
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $115,000 WARDEX
• 2025-07-16 Pending — WARDEX
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $118,000 WARDEX
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $125,000 WARDEX
• 2025-06-23 Price Changed $130,000 WARDEX
• 2025-05-30 Price Changed $135,000 WARDEX
• 2025-05-29 Relisted — WARDEX
• 2025-05-12 Pending — WARDEX
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $145,000 WARDEX
• 2025-04-14 Listed $150,000 WARDEX
• 2015-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2010-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records
• 2007-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $89,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $223 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.