The Dove Plan · Brookshire, TX 77423

$247,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,733 sqft · SingleFamily · 165 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Dove is a versatile 1,733-square-foot home designed for flexibility. A covered front entry and two-car garage provide everyday convenience, while the owners suite is thoughtfully placed on the main level at the back of the home for added privacy. The owners suite includes a comfortable bath and generous closet space, creating a functional retreat on the main floor. Upstairs, two additional bedrooms and a full bathroom offer separation and flexibility for a variety of needs.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 165 days

🏗️ New construction. The $247,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $268,365.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $248k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-160 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.3% in Brookshire — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1559 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,521 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.55%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $268,365
• List price: $247,990
• Delta: -7.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
469 Stone Placa Trl	0.12mi	3/3.0	1,784 (+3%)	1mo	$285,990	$160	86
308 Palero Path	0.04mi	3/3.0	1,784 (+3%)	12mo	$289,990	$163	81
429 Stone Placa Trl	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,689 (-2%)	6mo	$288,225	$171	80
317 Stone Placa Trl	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,770 (+2%)	13mo	$296,990	$168	79
312 Palero Path	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,866 (+8%)	10mo	$299,990	$161	77
537 Stone Placa Trl	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,566 (-10%)	4mo	$254,990	$163	74
448 Stone Placa	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,616 (-7%)	7mo	$260,000	$161	72
321 Stone Placa Trl	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,566 (-10%)	9mo	$259,990	$166	70
319 Palero Path	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,616 (-7%)	13mo	$279,990	$173	69
332 Palero Path	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,505 (-13%)	10mo	$269,990	$179	68
468 Stone Placa Trl	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,566 (-10%)	11mo	$274,625	$175	68
444 Stone Placa	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,505 (-13%)	8mo	$272,000	$181	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-59,924
• Equity at exit: $40,014

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-89,458
• Equity at exit: $23,203

Cash invested: $75,142 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 46 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 27.6 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $291,990 ($162/sqft)
• Median days on market: 67 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -4.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1559
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,145 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,407
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$335 /mo · $4,025/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,348

Max offer price $245,229

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $26	-5% $-67	+0% $-160	+5% $-253	+10% $-345
Rent	-10% $-329	-5% $-245	+0% $-160	+5% $-75	+10% $10
Rate	-1.0pp $-25	-0.5pp $-92	base $-160	+0.5pp $-229	+1.0pp $-300

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,091
• Closing costs: $8,051
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price available (details withheld per instructions)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Electricity and standard utilities (heating and cooling present)
• Home design: New construction plan named The DovePlan inventory type
• Construction: New construction (2026 listing)
• Exterior features: 1,733 living area

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard kitchen (appliances not listed)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open plan living area

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-10-13
   days on market $247,990 Active 165 DOM
2. 2026-10-12
   days on market $247,990 Active 164 DOM
3. 2026-10-11
   days on market $247,990 Active 163 DOM
4. 2026-10-10
   days on market $247,990 Active 162 DOM
5. 2026-10-09
   days on market $247,990 Active 161 DOM
6. 2026-10-08
   days on market $247,990 Active 160 DOM
7. 2026-10-07
   days on market $247,990 Active 159 DOM
8. 2026-10-06
   days on market $247,990 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-10-05
   days on market $247,990 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-10-04
    days on market $247,990 Active 156 DOM
11. 2026-10-04
    days on market $247,990 Active 155 DOM
12. 2026-10-02
    days on market $247,990 Active 154 DOM
13. 2026-10-01
    days on market $247,990 Active 153 DOM
14. 2026-09-30
    days on market $247,990 Active 152 DOM
15. 2026-09-29
    days on market $247,990 Active 151 DOM
16. 2026-09-28
    days on market $247,990 Active 150 DOM
17. 2026-09-27
    days on market $247,990 Active 149 DOM
18. 2026-09-26
    days on market $247,990 Active 148 DOM
19. 2026-09-25
    days on market $247,990 Active 147 DOM
20. 2026-09-24
    days on market $247,990 Active 146 DOM
21. 2026-09-23
    days on market $247,990 Active 145 DOM
22. 2026-09-22
    days on market $247,990 Active 144 DOM
23. 2026-09-21
    days on market $247,990 Active 143 DOM
24. 2026-09-20
    days on market $247,990 Active 142 DOM
25. 2026-09-19
    days on market $247,990 Active 141 DOM
26. 2026-09-18
    days on market $247,990 Active 140 DOM
27. 2026-09-17
    days on market $247,990 Active 139 DOM
28. 2026-09-16
    days on market $247,990 Active 138 DOM
29. 2026-09-15
    days on market $247,990 Active 137 DOM
30. 2026-09-14
    days on market $247,990 Active 136 DOM
31. 2026-09-13
    days on market $247,990 Active 135 DOM
32. 2026-09-12
    days on market $247,990 Active 134 DOM
33. 2026-09-11
    days on market $247,990 Active 133 DOM
34. 2026-09-05
    days on market $247,990 Active 127 DOM
35. 2026-09-04
    days on market $247,990 Active 126 DOM
36. 2026-09-02
    pricedays on market $247,990 Active 124 DOM
37. 2026-08-31
    days on market $244,990 Active 122 DOM
38. 2026-08-29
    days on market $244,990 Active 120 DOM
39. 2026-08-28
    days on market $244,990 Active 119 DOM
40. 2026-08-27
    days on market $244,990 Active 118 DOM
41. 2026-08-26
    days on market $244,990 Active 117 DOM
42. 2026-08-25
    days on market $244,990 Active 116 DOM
43. 2026-08-24
    days on market $244,990 Active 115 DOM
44. 2026-08-23
    days on market $244,990 Active 114 DOM
45. 2026-08-22
    days on market $244,990 Active 113 DOM
46. 2026-08-21
    days on market $244,990 Active 112 DOM
47. 2026-08-20
    days on market $244,990 Active 111 DOM
48. 2026-08-19
    days on market $244,990 Active 110 DOM
49. 2026-08-18
    days on market $244,990 Active 109 DOM
50. 2026-08-17
    days on market $244,990 Active 108 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,743
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,033
• − Property taxes: −$4,025
• − Insurance: −$1,342
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,059
• − Management: −$2,059
• − Depreciation: −$7,807
• Taxable loss: −$6,583
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,580
• After-tax cash flow: $-339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready and has a good resale and rental value. Consider painting the exterior and interior walls, landscaping improvements, adding smart home features, upgrading the kitchen appliances, and adding a smart thermostat to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase property value and attract buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and attract buyers/tenants who value eco-friendly features. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Royal El F TX #3,247/4,322 Nat'l #31,549/41,679 Middle Royal J H F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Royal H S F TX #1,377/1,632 Nat'l #13,899/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Brookshire

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #960
• US rank: #17059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 60,772 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price available (details withheld per instructions)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Electricity and standard utilities (heating and cooling present)
• Home design: New construction plan named The DovePlan inventory type
• Construction: New construction (2026 listing)
• Exterior features: 1,733 living area

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard kitchen (appliances not listed)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open plan living area