4507 Ashby Rd · St. Ann, MO 63074

$160,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,112 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1951 5,850 sqft lot Est $177k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Coming Soon!!! Great investment opportunity. This tenant-occupied property features 3 bedrooms, 1 full bathroom, 1 half bathroom and a 2-car garage. Additional details, photos and information will be available soon. Please do not disturb the tenants or walk the property without an appointment. Stay tuned for more information and upcoming availability!

Key facts

• 5,850 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1951

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with space for 2 cars
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (Ameren); Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Front yard; Back yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; Seven total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($641/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ritenour (suburban): math 13% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #304 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 61 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $109k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $139,090 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.43%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $176,808
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4421 Ashby Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,161 (+4%)	1mo	$184,900	$159	84
4332 Saint Leo Ln	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,068 (-4%)	2mo	$170,000	$159	81
4207 Saint Linus Ln	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,160 (+4%)	4mo	$195,000	$168	69
3937 Wright Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,082 (-3%)	6mo	$195,000	$180	59
4361 Saint Dominic Ln	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,250 (+12%)	8mo	$150,000	$120	58
4053 Jane Ave	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,224 (+10%)	2mo	$114,900	$94	57
11245 Saint Clement Ln	0.34mi	2/1.5 (-1)	994 (-11%)	8mo	$120,000	$121	53
4426 Treadway Ln	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-9%)	1mo	$114,900	$114	51
4300 Saint Dominic Ln	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,266 (+14%)	8mo	$164,999	$130	49
10639 Saint Stephen Ln	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-9%)	6mo	$190,000	$188	48
3931 Fairway Ct	0.59mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,264 (+14%)	3mo	$249,900	$198	40
3954 Geraldine Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,247 (+12%)	9mo	$180,000	$144	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-20,928
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-7,133
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63074

• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,391 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,676/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,323

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4616 Country Ln St Ann, MO	2.0	1.0–2.0	758	$1,505	$1.99	2d	9	0.31mi
10145 Cabana Club Dr St Ann, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	776	$1,060	$1.37	43d	8	0.33mi
11276 Liana Ln Saint Ann, MO	2.0	1.0	780	$1,189	$1.52	4d	1	0.39mi
10742 Tropic Dr Unit VACANT St Ann, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	43d	1	0.45mi
10788 Tropic Dr Saint Ann, MO	2.0	1.0	828	$1,260	$1.52	43d	1	0.54mi
4120 Geraldine Ave St Ann, MO	2.0	1.5	922	$1,200	$1.30	17d	1	0.56mi
3961 Jane Ave Unit 3963 St Ann, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$1,195	$1.59	14d	1	0.70mi
10069 Livingston Ave St Ann, MO	2.0	1.0	875	$1,100	$1.26	23d	1	0.76mi
9807 Guthrie Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1068	$1,700	$1.59	23d	1	1.01mi
4204 Beauty Ln Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.5	1299	$1,690	$1.30	43d	1	1.15mi
3529 Saint Joachim Ln Unit NA St Ann, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	20d	1	1.16mi
3529 Saint Joachim Ln Saint Ann, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	23d	1	1.16mi
9675 Muriel Ave Unit 9627 Overland, MO	2.0	1.5	830	$1,200	$1.45	43d	1	1.27mi
9675 Muriel Ave Unit 9733 Overland, MO	2.0	1.5	830	$1,200	$1.45	2d	1	1.27mi
9457 Harold Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1472	$1,530	$1.04	21d	1	1.37mi
10214 Saint Anthony Ln Saint Ann, MO	2.0	1.0	734	$1,200	$1.63	43d	1	1.40mi
9448 Harold Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	864	$1,495	$1.73	43d	1	1.40mi
10116 Saint Katherine Ln Saint Ann, MO	3.0	1.0	984	$1,865	$1.90	17d	1	1.46mi
11042 Florence Ave Saint Ann, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,300	$1.50	12d	1	1.47mi
4400 Gordon Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	3d	1	1.47mi
3434 Sims Ave Saint Ann, MO	3.0	1.5	988	$1,545	$1.56	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $160,000 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   remarks 354-char remark
8. 2026-06-08
   listed $160,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,676 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,676 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,691
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,676
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,335
• − Management: −$1,335
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$2,073
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$498
• After-tax cash flow: $1,138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ritenour
• NCES district ID: 2926640
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,410
• Composite: 17.04/100
• National rank: #9125
• State rank: #304 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Ann

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Ann, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 16,237
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 15,793
• Household income: $51,610
• Rent vs Own: 46.6% rent · 53.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 782.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 17% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -242.89%
• Current HPI: 210.6588
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.14%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+357.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Coming Soon $160,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $109,000 Public Records
• 2019-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $101,000 Public Records
• 2018-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $440,000 Public Records
• 1982-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1982-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,676 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.