5823 Saddle Creek Ln · Pasco, WA 99301

$2,050

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,346 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2004 8,712 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUD property sold "AS IS" Insured (IN). Case # 562-195110. AS IS value=$142,000. Active list date: 12/8/06. The FHA loan amount can't exceed the appraised value on all properties that qualify for FHA financing. Use Radon Gas & Mold Notice & LBP addendums, if required. Selling agent & buyer to verify all info regarding schools & past utilities per buyer's satisifaction. Bid deadline: 12/17/06 @ midnight.

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2004

🔨 Auction listing. The $2,050 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $374,987 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $2k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-907 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $2k).
• Recommended offer: $2k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#104 in WA, #1,999 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D-.
• Pasco School District (suburban): math 31% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #242 of 291 in WA (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 705 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 981 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (517 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($2k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 274.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,019 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.36%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 14.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $374,987
• List price: $2,050
• Delta: -99.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5803 Saddle Creek Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,389 (+3%)	6mo	$405,500	$292	87
7823 Rush Creek Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,436 (+7%)	3mo	$405,000	$282	83
8407 Packard Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,382 (+3%)	7mo	$369,900	$268	70
5712 Middle Fork St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,372 (+2%)	2mo	$415,000	$302	68
8615 Stutz Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,408 (+5%)	7mo	$390,000	$277	57
8212 Quadra Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,382 (+3%)	6mo	$300,000	$217	57
8608 Heathrow Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	1mo	$377,500	$262	55
8709 Silver Mound Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,437 (+7%)	4mo	$436,600	$304	52
8707 Overland Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,160 (-14%)	5mo	$369,900	$319	44
8713 Silver Mound Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,496 (+11%)	5mo	$434,900	$291	43
5320 Westminster Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-13%)	7mo	$359,700	$306	40
5308 Westminster Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,180 (-12%)	8mo	$354,900	$301	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-120,616
• Equity at exit: $55,912

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.79×
• Total profit: $-187,874
• Equity at exit: $32,422

Cash invested: $104,996 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99301

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 705
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,133 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,966
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$469 /mo · $5,625/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-907

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,280

Max offer price $243,809

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,747
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7820 Three Rivers Dr Pasco, WA	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,300	$1.60	21d	1	0.07mi
8011 Hudson Dr Pasco, WA	4.0	2.0	1480	$2,200	$1.49	43d	1	0.16mi
6102 Road 68 Pasco, WA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,548	$1.54	13d	4	0.20mi
6212 Road 68 Pasco, WA	2.0	2.0	953	$1,546	$1.62	13d	20	0.26mi
5801 Road 92 Pasco, WA	3.0	2.5	1449	$2,250	$1.55	13d	4	0.89mi
9417 Vincenzo Dr Pasco, WA	3.0	3.0	1675	$2,195	$1.31	43d	1	1.08mi
9315 Chapel Hill Blvd Pasco, WA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,507	$1.48	13d	10	1.21mi
4119 Bond Ln Pasco, WA	3.0	2.0	1382	$2,300	$1.66	21d	1	1.28mi
9904 Mia Ln Pasco, WA	3.0	2.5	1509	$1,950	$1.29	21d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-10
   historical $2,050
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $2,050
3. 2026-05-07
   listed $2,050 Active 1616-char remark
4. 2012-06-29
   soldstatus $180,000
5. 2007-02-14
   soldstatus $107,600
6. 2007-01-29
   soldstatus $107,600 440-char remark

   Show marketing remark (440 chars)

   HUD property sold "AS IS" Insured (IN). Case # 562-195110. AS IS value=$142,000. Active list date: 12/8/06. The FHA loan amount can't exceed the appraised value on all properties that qualify for FHA financing. Use Radon Gas & Mold Notice & LBP addendums, if required. Selling agent & buyer to verify all info regarding schools & past utilities per buyer's satisifaction. Bid deadline: 12/17/06 @ midnight.

7. 2006-12-08
   listed $127,800 440-char remark

   Show marketing remark (440 chars)

   HUD property sold "AS IS" Insured (IN). Case # 562-195110. AS IS value=$142,000. Active list date: 12/8/06. The FHA loan amount can't exceed the appraised value on all properties that qualify for FHA financing. Use Radon Gas & Mold Notice & LBP addendums, if required. Selling agent & buyer to verify all info regarding schools & past utilities per buyer's satisifaction. Bid deadline: 12/17/06 @ midnight.

8. 2004-05-13
   soldstatus $122,500

   Show marketing remark (109 chars)

   Vaulted Ceilings, rounded drywall corners, Front yard landscaping, real wood trim, vinyl siding all included.

9. 2004-01-01
   listed $122,500

   Show marketing remark (109 chars)

   Vaulted Ceilings, rounded drywall corners, Front yard landscaping, real wood trim, vinyl siding all included.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,594
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,005
• − Property taxes: −$5,625
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,047
• − Management: −$2,047
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$17,915
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,300
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,579/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco School District
• NCES district ID: 5306570
• Math proficiency: 31% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,454
• Composite: 33.78/100
• National rank: #10401
• State rank: #242 of 291 in WA

Livability — Pasco

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #1999

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pasco, WA
• County: Franklin County · 87,044 people
• City population: 87,044
• Metro: Kennewick-Richland, WA
• Population (ZIP): 87,044
• Household income: $87,951
• Rent vs Own: 28.6% rent · 71.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1556.0

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 108,530 people
• By 2030: 118,705 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 140,053 · +29.0%
• By 2050: 162,360 · +49.6%
• By 2075: 217,667 · +100.6%
• By 2100: 264,533 · +143.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 37% Two or more races 22% Black 2% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 47% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.7) · D 37.4% · R 60.1% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.0pp toward D · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -22.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.7 2020: R+14.5 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+25.2 2008: R+23.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -331.74%
• Current HPI: 284.481
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.99%
• Metro: Kennewick-Richland, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-98.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Rental Removed $2,050 APPFOLIO
• 2026-05-08 Listed for Rent $2,050 APPFOLIO
• 2012-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2007-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $107,600 Public Records
• 2007-01-29 Sold (MLS) $107,600 PACMLS
• 2006-12-08 Listed $127,800 PACMLS
• 2004-05-13 Sold (MLS) $122,500 PACMLS
• 2004-01-01 Listed $122,500 PACMLS

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,312 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.