1937 Nys Route 73 · Keene Valley, NY 12943

$449,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 493 Days on market

Built 1987 4.62 ac lot $223/sqft · 18% below area Est $573k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Cash flow +3.1/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to the Adirondacks and embrace the tranquility of this charming 4-bedroom Cape Cod style home, boasting stunning mountain views from nearly every angle. Just a short stroll from the heart of Keene Valley, you'll enjoy easy access to charming shops, local restaurants, and the renowned hiking trails that lead to breathtaking vistas. For those seeking adventure, world-class skiing and Olympic attractions in Lake Placid are just a scenic drive away. This delightful home offers both comfort and privacy, nestled amidst mature gardens and lush greenery. Relax and unwind on the newly refurbished wraparound deck, perfect for soaking in the mountain vistas, or bask in the warmth of the sun-drenched sunroom during the winter months. Inside, you'll discover a spacious and inviting interior featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a bonus room on the second floor, offering endless possibilities for customization. The second floor is even plumbed for a third bathroom, allowing for easy expansion. A detached garage provides ample storage, while the level yard and raised garden beds invite you to embrace your green thumb. Whether you seek a year-round retreat or a vacation haven, this property offers the perfect blend of modern comfort and rustic charm. Furnishings are negotiable, making your transition to mountain living effortless and enjoyable. Don't miss this opportunity to own your piece of Adirondack paradise!

Key facts

• Mature gardens
• Wraparound deck
• Hiking trails

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• HIKING TRAILS
• MATURE GARDENS
• WRAPAROUND DECK
• SUN-DRENCHED SUNROOM
• DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (56.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (63.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (63.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Keene Central School District (rural): math 70% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #153 of 755 in NY (top 20%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 493 days — a 12% lower offer ($395k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $110k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $164,280 (63.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 493 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 63% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.37% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.78%
• DSCR: 0.39
• GRM: 22.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $572,774
• List price: $449,000
• Delta: -21.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Adirondack Street St	0.61mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,863 (-8%)	7mo	$485,000	$260	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $53,756
• Equity at exit: $299,592

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $226,043
• Equity at exit: $558,923

Cash invested: $125,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12943

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 22.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,643 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,403/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-1,444

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,471

Max offer price $193,893

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,190	-5% $-1,317	+0% $-1,444	+5% $-1,571	+10% $-1,698
Rent	-10% $-1,574	-5% $-1,509	+0% $-1,444	+5% $-1,379	+10% $-1,314
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,218	-0.5pp $-1,330	base $-1,444	+0.5pp $-1,560	+1.0pp $-1,679

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,250
• Closing costs: $13,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $449,000 Active 493 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $449,000 Active 492 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $449,000 Active 491 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $449,000 Active 490 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $449,000 Active 488 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $499,000 Active 487 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $499,000 Active 484 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $499,000 Active 483 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $499,000 Active 482 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $499,000 Active 480 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $499,000 Active 478 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $499,000 Active 477 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $499,000 Active 476 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $499,000 Active 475 DOM
15. 2025-07-25
    price $499,000 1429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1429 chars)

    Escape to the Adirondacks and embrace the tranquility of this charming 4-bedroom Cape Cod style home, boasting stunning mountain views from nearly every angle. Just a short stroll from the heart of Keene Valley, you'll enjoy easy access to charming shops, local restaurants, and the renowned hiking trails that lead to breathtaking vistas. For those seeking adventure, world-class skiing and Olympic attractions in Lake Placid are just a scenic drive away. This delightful home offers both comfort and privacy, nestled amidst mature gardens and lush greenery. Relax and unwind on the newly refurbished wraparound deck, perfect for soaking in the mountain vistas, or bask in the warmth of the sun-drenched sunroom during the winter months. Inside, you'll discover a spacious and inviting interior featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a bonus room on the second floor, offering endless possibilities for customization. The second floor is even plumbed for a third bathroom, allowing for easy expansion. A detached garage provides ample storage, while the level yard and raised garden beds invite you to embrace your green thumb. Whether you seek a year-round retreat or a vacation haven, this property offers the perfect blend of modern comfort and rustic charm. Furnishings are negotiable, making your transition to mountain living effortless and enjoyable. Don't miss this opportunity to own your piece of Adirondack paradise!

16. 2025-06-17
    price $515,000 1429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1429 chars)

    Escape to the Adirondacks and embrace the tranquility of this charming 4-bedroom Cape Cod style home, boasting stunning mountain views from nearly every angle. Just a short stroll from the heart of Keene Valley, you'll enjoy easy access to charming shops, local restaurants, and the renowned hiking trails that lead to breathtaking vistas. For those seeking adventure, world-class skiing and Olympic attractions in Lake Placid are just a scenic drive away. This delightful home offers both comfort and privacy, nestled amidst mature gardens and lush greenery. Relax and unwind on the newly refurbished wraparound deck, perfect for soaking in the mountain vistas, or bask in the warmth of the sun-drenched sunroom during the winter months. Inside, you'll discover a spacious and inviting interior featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a bonus room on the second floor, offering endless possibilities for customization. The second floor is even plumbed for a third bathroom, allowing for easy expansion. A detached garage provides ample storage, while the level yard and raised garden beds invite you to embrace your green thumb. Whether you seek a year-round retreat or a vacation haven, this property offers the perfect blend of modern comfort and rustic charm. Furnishings are negotiable, making your transition to mountain living effortless and enjoyable. Don't miss this opportunity to own your piece of Adirondack paradise!

17. 2025-02-10
    listed $559,000 Active 1429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1429 chars)

    Escape to the Adirondacks and embrace the tranquility of this charming 4-bedroom Cape Cod style home, boasting stunning mountain views from nearly every angle. Just a short stroll from the heart of Keene Valley, you'll enjoy easy access to charming shops, local restaurants, and the renowned hiking trails that lead to breathtaking vistas. For those seeking adventure, world-class skiing and Olympic attractions in Lake Placid are just a scenic drive away. This delightful home offers both comfort and privacy, nestled amidst mature gardens and lush greenery. Relax and unwind on the newly refurbished wraparound deck, perfect for soaking in the mountain vistas, or bask in the warmth of the sun-drenched sunroom during the winter months. Inside, you'll discover a spacious and inviting interior featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a bonus room on the second floor, offering endless possibilities for customization. The second floor is even plumbed for a third bathroom, allowing for easy expansion. A detached garage provides ample storage, while the level yard and raised garden beds invite you to embrace your green thumb. Whether you seek a year-round retreat or a vacation haven, this property offers the perfect blend of modern comfort and rustic charm. Furnishings are negotiable, making your transition to mountain living effortless and enjoyable. Don't miss this opportunity to own your piece of Adirondack paradise!

18. 2022-01-12
    soldstatus $445,000 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    Charming and comfortable Cape style home with mountain views in front and back, 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths (2nd floor has plumbing in place for 3rd bathroom), detached garage, 2nd floor bonus room, and a wonderful wraparound deck to enjoy the mature, abundant floral and fauna. Then move inside during the winter months and relax in the spacious sunroom. House is set back from the road to ensure privacy, property is entirely level and a raised garden is included. Furnishings are negotiable. Wonderful property for a prospective purchaser looking for a primary residence or vacation home.

19. 2021-10-29
    listed $445,000 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    Charming and comfortable Cape style home with mountain views in front and back, 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths (2nd floor has plumbing in place for 3rd bathroom), detached garage, 2nd floor bonus room, and a wonderful wraparound deck to enjoy the mature, abundant floral and fauna. Then move inside during the winter months and relax in the spacious sunroom. House is set back from the road to ensure privacy, property is entirely level and a raised garden is included. Furnishings are negotiable. Wonderful property for a prospective purchaser looking for a primary residence or vacation home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,403 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,995 · $416/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,593/yr (+$216/mo · 107.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,714
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,151
• − Property taxes: −$2,403
• − Insurance: −$2,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,577
• − Management: −$1,577
• − Depreciation: −$13,062
• Taxable loss: −$26,301
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,312
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,017/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Keene Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616140
• Math proficiency: 70% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $49,765
• Composite: 62.51/100
• National rank: #1404
• State rank: #153 of 755 in NY

Livability — Keene Valley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 293

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,758 people
• By 2030: 35,697 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 32,697 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 29,248 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 22,641 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 16,602 · -54.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Lithuanian 13% Slovak 5%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+5.0 2016: R+3.4 2012: D+15.0 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.61%
• Current HPI: 388.7437
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+12.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $499,000 ACVMLS
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $515,000 ACVMLS
• 2025-02-10 Listed $559,000 ACVMLS
• 2022-01-12 Sold (MLS) $445,000 ACVMLS
• 2021-10-29 Listed $445,000 ACVMLS

Property tax history

-7.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,403 · -71.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.