4431 Virginia Anx · St. Louis, MO 63111

$75,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 726 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1897 1,681 sqft lot $103/sqft · 5% above area Est $143k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charmer in the heart of Dutchtown is cleaned out and ready to be made whole again. Call listing agent with questions about making a cash offer.

Key facts

• 1,681 sq ft lot
• Built 1897
• Listed 56 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service listed as other
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Brick construction; Unfinished basement
• Exterior features: Back yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: No heating system listed; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Central air

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $150 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($780 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Monroe Elem. (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,099 of 1,115 statewide, top 100%, 158 students, 98% FRL); Roosevelt High (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #517 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 460 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $75k implies a 226% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1897 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1897 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.55%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $142,615
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -47.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4649 Louisiana Ave	0.23mi	2/1.0 (+1)	743 (+2%)	5mo	$115,000	$155	76
3653 Taft Ave	0.37mi	1/2.0	741 (+2%)	6mo	$109,900	$148	71
3857 Neosho St	0.65mi	2/1.0 (+1)	720 (-1%)	6mo	$89,900	$125	58
5039 Grace Ave	0.59mi	2/1.0 (+1)	792 (+9%)	0mo	$145,500	$184	52
4418 S 38th St	0.51mi	2/1.0 (+1)	759 (+4%)	14mo	$115,000	$152	52
5105 Vermont Ave	0.50mi	1/1.0	801 (+10%)	13mo	$89,900	$112	48
3220 Liberty St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (+1)	805 (+11%)	13mo	$120,000	$149	48
3757 Neosho St	0.52mi	2/1.0 (+1)	792 (+9%)	13mo	$169,900	$215	44
2748 Chariton	0.54mi	1/1.0	808 (+11%)	15mo	$49,900	$62	44
4454 S Spring Ave	0.58mi	2/1.0 (+1)	816 (+12%)	4mo	$129,900	$159	44
5047 Grace Ave	0.60mi	2/1.0 (+1)	792 (+9%)	13mo	$149,900	$189	41
5031 Dewey Ave	0.67mi	2/1.0 (+1)	792 (+9%)	14mo	$120,000	$152	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-2,427
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $10,959
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63111

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $780 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $503/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$164
• Net cashflow: $150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $590

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4305 Virginia Ave Unit 204 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	646	$785	$1.22	14d	1	0.20mi
4617 Virginia Ave Apt F St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	600	$725	$1.21	43d	1	0.20mi
4617 Virginia Ave St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	700	$825	$1.18	23d	1	0.20mi
4255 Virginia Ave Unit 206 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	506	$750	$1.48	43d	1	0.22mi
3543 Bingham Ave Unit 3539 Bingham 206 St. Louis, MO	—	1.0	462	$750	$1.62	43d	1	0.25mi
4329 S Grand Blvd Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	600	$750	$1.25	43d	1	0.26mi
4451 Grace Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	700	$750	$1.07	17d	1	0.32mi
4508 Pennsylvania Ave Unit 2N St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	750	$740	$0.99	23d	1	0.33mi
4508 Pennsylvania Ave Unit 2N St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	750	$740	$0.99	43d	1	0.33mi
3664 Neosho St Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$750	$1.07	43d	1	0.40mi
4528 Nebraska Ave Unit 104 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	23d	1	0.41mi
3440 Delor St Unit 3444 Delor 2W St. Louis, MO	—	1.0	450	$575	$1.28	23d	1	0.42mi
3702 Meramec St Unit 1e St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	725	$950	$1.31	7d	1	0.43mi
3608 Delor St Apt C St. Louis, MO	—	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	43d	1	0.49mi
5043 Alaska Ave Unit D St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	750	$795	$1.06	43d	1	0.49mi
5043 Alaska Ave Unit B St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	750	$820	$1.09	22d	1	0.49mi
4752 Pennsylvania Ave Unit 4754 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$725	$1.04	7d	1	0.51mi
4101 Dewey Ave Unit 2F St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	650	$775	$1.19	23d	1	0.51mi
4301 S 38th St Unit 1s St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	686	$900	$1.31	23d	1	0.52mi
4718-4720 Nebraska Ave Unit 1 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	650	$695	$1.07	23d	1	0.52mi
2837 Meramec St Apt 1E St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	23d	1	0.54mi
4202 California Ave St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	600	$625	$1.04	14d	1	0.59mi
4048 Giles Ave Apt 1S St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	650	$795	$1.22	14d	1	0.61mi
3954 S Grand Blvd Unit 3523 Osage 2E St. Louis, MO	—	1.0	600	$595	$0.99	43d	1	0.62mi
3954 S Grand Blvd Apt 3N St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	650	$625	$0.96	43d	1	0.62mi
4838 S Broadway Unit C St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$900	$1.20	20d	1	0.63mi
4838 S Broadway Unit B St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$900	$1.20	4d	1	0.63mi
440 Eichelberger St Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$850	$1.13	3d	1	0.66mi
5305 S Compton Ave St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$825	$1.10	43d	1	0.66mi
4102 California Ave Unit 2s St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	745	$725	$0.97	43d	1	0.67mi
329 Eichelberger St Unit A St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$890	$1.62	23d	1	0.68mi
329 Eichelberger St Unit D St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$899	$1.63	43d	1	0.68mi
3406 Keokuk St Unit 3406 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	43d	1	0.69mi
510 Fassen St Unit 512 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$795	$1.14	14d	1	0.75mi
510 Fassen St Unit 510 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	14d	1	0.75mi
3402 Dunnica Ave Unit 3400 1f St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	695	$775	$1.12	23d	1	0.75mi
3839 Pennsylvania Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	725	$1,000	$1.38	20d	1	0.81mi
3862 S Spring Ave Apt 3E St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$695	$0.99	10d	1	0.82mi
5618 S Grand Blvd Unit 10 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	600	$799	$1.33	43d	1	0.83mi
3860 Bamberger Ave Unit 3N St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	700	$799	$1.14	17d	1	0.84mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $75,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-04-23
    listed $75,000 Active 311-char remark
15. 2024-07-11
    historical
16. 2024-06-04
    price $72,000
17. 2024-05-20
    listed $80,000 Active
18. 2024-05-17
    historical
19. 2022-11-14
    soldstatus $23,000
20. 2022-11-07
    soldstatus Closed

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    This charmer in the heart of Dutchtown is cleaned out and ready to be made whole again. Call listing agent with questions about making a cash offer.

21. 2022-10-17
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    This charmer in the heart of Dutchtown is cleaned out and ready to be made whole again. Call listing agent with questions about making a cash offer.

22. 2022-10-04
    listed $24,999 Active

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    This charmer in the heart of Dutchtown is cleaned out and ready to be made whole again. Call listing agent with questions about making a cash offer.

23. 2022-08-17
    price $35,999
24. 2022-08-13
    price $39,999
25. 2022-07-12
    soldstatus $13,000
26. 1989-08-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $503 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $728 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$224/yr (+$19/mo · 44.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,360
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$503
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$749
• − Management: −$749
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $601
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$144
• After-tax cash flow: $1,652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,851
• Household income: $47,039
• Rent vs Own: 61.6% rent · 38.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1364.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 41% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, India
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.80%
• Current HPI: 169.4644
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.27%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+476.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $75,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-11 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-04 Price Changed $72,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-20 Listed $80,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-17 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-07 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-17 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-04 Listed $24,999 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-17 Price Changed $35,999 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-13 Price Changed $39,999 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records
• 1989-08-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $503 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.