146 SW Tree Top Rd · Rainbow Lakes Estates, FL 34431

$222,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,087 sqft · SingleFamily · 157 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 0.25 ac lot Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Limited-time incentive: Seller offering a $5,000 contribution toward the buyer’s closing costs with an accepted full-price offer. Discover the charm of this new construction “Maplewood” model by Bakan Homes. Thoughtfully designed to blend affordability with everyday comfort, this home presents a wonderful opportunity for buyers seeking stylish, attainable homeownership. Inside, you’ll find 8’ ceilings in the bedrooms and vaulted ceilings in the main living areas, creating an open and inviting feel throughout.

Key facts

• New construction
• Maplewood model
• 0.25 acre lot

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• MAPLEWOOD MODEL
• 8 CEILINGS IN BEDROOMS
• DURABLE FORMICA COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

🏗️ New construction. The $222,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $223,658.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $223k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-246 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (26.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Romeo Elementary School (math 51% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,234 of 2,144 statewide, top 58%, 707 students, 76% FRL); Dunnellon Middle School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D, #310 of 571 statewide, top 56%, 678 students, 68% FRL); Dunnellon High School (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,350 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 779 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $164,532 (26.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.71%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,658
• List price: $222,900
• Delta: -0.34%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
427 SW Alvarez Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+5%)	2mo	$209,900	$184	82
367 SW Alvarez Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,003 (-8%)	9mo	$207,000	$206	70
6 SW Tree Top Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,058 (-3%)	7mo	$194,900	$184	69
649 SW Winding Hills Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,238 (+14%)	6mo	$221,000	$179	66
963 SW Temple Heights Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,003 (-8%)	6mo	$202,800	$202	64
76 NW Alvarez Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,003 (-8%)	7mo	$207,000	$206	64
55 SW Tree Top Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,003 (-8%)	6mo	$205,000	$204	63
284 SW Commodore Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,003 (-8%)	4mo	$200,000	$199	61
85 SW Tree Top Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,003 (-8%)	12mo	$200,000	$199	59
127 SW Alvarez Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+10%)	13mo	$214,900	$179	55
1554 SW Temple Heights Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,238 (+14%)	9mo	$220,000	$178	43
1774 SW Big Bear Rdg	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,237 (+14%)	7mo	$230,000	$186	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-51,876
• Equity at exit: $33,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-65,234
• Equity at exit: $19,338

Cash invested: $62,624 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 4 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.0 mo (33%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $289,450 ($272/sqft)
• Median days on market: 90 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -24.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34431

• Home prices YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 779
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,645 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,173
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$280 /mo · $3,355/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,957

Max offer price $188,083

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-91	-5% $-169	+0% $-246	+5% $-323	+10% $-400
Rent	-10% $-376	-5% $-311	+0% $-246	+5% $-181	+10% $-116
Rate	-1.0pp $-133	-0.5pp $-189	base $-246	+0.5pp $-304	+1.0pp $-363

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,915
• Closing costs: $6,710
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3000 Clarcona Rd Apopka, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,250	$1.52	109d	1	0.63mi
24449 NW Falcon Ave Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1017	$1,595	$1.57	4d	1	1.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.25 acre (1/4 to less than 1/2 acre)Living area reported ~1,087 (builder)Total building area reported ~1,448 (builder)UnfurnishedZoning: R1Builder license: CRC

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayAttached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Well waterSeptic tankElectricity connectedWater connected
• Home design: Single family residenceResidential propertyOne storyFacing eastUnder construction (projected completion June 13, 2026)
• Construction: Stucco and frame constructionShingle roofSlab foundationNew constructionBuilder: Bakan Homes LLC (Maplewood model)Permit number 2025091554
• Exterior features: Sliding doorsPaved road accessLot dimensions approximately 77 x 143

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherMicrowaveRangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilingsVaulted ceilingsThermostatWalk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupLaundry room

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $222,900 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-09-24
   days on market $222,900 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $222,900 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $222,900 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $222,900 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $222,900 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $222,900 Active 149 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $222,900 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $222,900 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $222,900 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $222,900 Active 145 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $222,900 Active 144 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $222,900 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $222,900 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $222,900 Active 136 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $222,900 Active 133 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $222,900 Active 132 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $222,900 Active 131 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $222,900 Active 130 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $222,900 Active 129 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $222,900 Active 127 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $222,900 Active 126 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $222,900 Active 125 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $222,900 Active 124 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $222,900 Active 122 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $222,900 Active 121 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $222,900 Active 120 DOM
28. 2026-08-17
    days on market $222,900 Active 119 DOM
29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $222,900 Active 118 DOM
30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $222,900 Active 117 DOM
31. 2026-08-14
    days on market $222,900 Active 116 DOM
32. 2026-08-13
    days on market $222,900 Active 115 DOM
33. 2026-08-12
    days on market $222,900 Active 114 DOM
34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $222,900 Active 113 DOM
35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $222,900 Active 112 DOM
36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $222,900 Active 111 DOM
37. 2026-08-08
    days on market $222,900 Active 110 DOM
38. 2026-08-07
    days on market $222,900 Active 109 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $222,900 Active 108 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $222,900 Active 107 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $222,900 Active 106 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $222,900 Active 105 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $222,900 Active 102 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $222,900 Active 101 DOM
45. 2026-07-29
    days on market $222,900 Active 100 DOM
46. 2026-07-27
    days on market $222,900 Active 98 DOM
47. 2026-07-25
    days on market $222,900 Active 96 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $222,900 Active 94 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $222,900 Active 93 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $222,900 Active 92 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,528
• − Property taxes: −$3,355
• − Insurance: −$1,118
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,580
• − Management: −$1,580
• − Depreciation: −$6,506
• Taxable loss: −$6,923
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,662
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,289/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction home is move-in ready with modern finishes and features, offering a great opportunity for buyers seeking stylish, affordable homeownership.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading fixtures can increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhanced landscaping improves curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Resale Painting — Fresh paint can make the home more inviting and appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Flooring — High-quality flooring can add value and improve the home's overall appearance. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 41/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Romeo Elementary School D- FL #1,234/2,144 Nat'l #15,585/41,679 Middle Dunnellon Middle School D FL #310/571 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High Dunnellon High School F FL #429/667 Nat'l #10,806/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Rainbow Lakes Estates

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rainbow Lakes Estates, FL
• County: Marion County · 365,905 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,785
• Household income: $56,534
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.42%
• Current HPI: 343.1464
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.25 acre (1/4 to less than 1/2 acre)Living area reported ~1,087 (builder)Total building area reported ~1,448 (builder)UnfurnishedZoning: R1Builder license: CRC

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayAttached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Well waterSeptic tankElectricity connectedWater connected
• Home design: Single family residenceResidential propertyOne storyFacing eastUnder construction (projected completion June 13, 2026)
• Construction: Stucco and frame constructionShingle roofSlab foundationNew constructionBuilder: Bakan Homes LLC (Maplewood model)Permit number 2025091554
• Exterior features: Sliding doorsPaved road accessLot dimensions approximately 77 x 143

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherMicrowaveRangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilingsVaulted ceilingsThermostatWalk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupLaundry room

Price history

+2.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $222,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Listed $217,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid