22325 US Highway 18 #79 · Apple Valley, CA 92307

$75,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · Manufactured public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1972 Est $145k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great! well maintained mobile home all-ages family park, 2 Bed 2bath, spacious living, dining room large kitchen, family room, laundry room, little shed, plenty room for gardening and 3 cars carport, and handicap elevator. Park included use of the community pool and club house. Sale AS IS Condition

Key facts

• Community pool
• Large kitchen
• Club house

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUB HOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot features include sprinklers (none) and low density (0-1 unit/acre)
• Financial info: Land lease applicable
• HOA & community: Community pool and clubhouse; Suburban community

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage; 2-car carport; Total parking for 5 vehicles; Located in Apple Valley Mobile Home Lodge
• Utilities: Public/district water; Public sewer (connected)
• Home design: Mobile home (12' x 60'); Double body type; Model: SPA; Mobile home remains on site; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Vinyl exterior; Year built (per public records)
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Community pool; Outbuilding; Chain-link fencing; Steel skirting

Interior

• Kitchen: Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Single-level home; Side entry; Family room
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.7% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 538 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $75k implies a 500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 1→4/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.56%
• DSCR: 3.92
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $144,900
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22325 US Highway 18 #82	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,173 (-15%)	13mo	$123,000	$105	60
21922 Ottawa Rd #12	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-3%)	17mo	$70,000	$52	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.15×
• Total profit: $66,050
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 72.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.27×
• Total profit: $173,753
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92307

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 538
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,012 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $206/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $1,147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $559

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,190	-5% $1,169	+0% $1,147	+5% $1,126	+10% $1,105
Rent	-10% $988	-5% $1,068	+0% $1,147	+5% $1,227	+10% $1,306
Rate	-1.0pp $1,185	-0.5pp $1,166	base $1,147	+0.5pp $1,128	+1.0pp $1,108

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22039 Biloxi Ave Unit 2-3 Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,200	$1.76	45d	1	0.46mi
22873 Ottawa Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1542	$2,000	$1.30	45d	1	0.81mi
19142 California 18 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	45d	1	0.85mi
13192 Navajo Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	944	$1,850	$1.96	45d	1	0.94mi
13192 Navajo Rd #3 Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	944	$1,795	$1.90	25d	1	0.95mi
13584 Yakima Rd Unit 1 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	930	$1,568	$1.69	25d	1	0.98mi
13073 Navajo Rd Unit A Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,695	$1.70	25d	1	0.99mi
13207 Franceska Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	1.0	1440	$2,050	$1.42	0d	1	1.08mi
14313 Osage Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,950	$1.70	45d	1	1.09mi
13464 Mohawk Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	937	$1,799	$1.92	19d	1	1.24mi
14198 Kiowa Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,095	$1.32	21d	1	1.29mi
13116 Mohawk Rd Apt 2 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,800	$2.06	6d	1	1.39mi
14742 Quivero Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1470	$3,500	$2.38	45d	1	1.42mi
21172 Cabernet Ln Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1542	$1,950	$1.26	0d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $75,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $75,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    listed $75,000 Active
17. 2022-02-05
    historical
18. 2020-12-01
    historical
19. 2020-04-20
    listed $45,000 Active
20. 2020-04-20
    listed $45,000
21. 2020-04-20
    historical
22. 2020-03-16
    listed $45,000
23. 2016-09-22
    soldstatus $12,500
24. 2016-08-15
    listed $11,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $206 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $570 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: +$364/yr (+$30/mo · 176.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 1 d/yr ≥100°F today · 4 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,139
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$206
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,931
• − Management: −$1,931
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $13,312
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,195
• After-tax cash flow: $10,574/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,180
• Household income: $77,106
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1069.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 22% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.21%
• Current HPI: 347.8498
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.48%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+552.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $75,000 CRMLS
• 2022-02-05 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2020-12-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2020-04-20 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2020-04-20 Listed $45,000 CRMLS
• 2020-04-20 Listed $45,000 CRMLS
• 2020-03-16 Listed $45,000 CRMLS
• 2016-09-22 Sold (MLS) $12,500 CRMLS
• 2016-08-15 Listed $11,500 CRMLS

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $206 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.