9775 Highway 45 · Chunchula, AL 36521

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Other · 63 Days on market

Built 2011 1.02 ac lot $79/sqft · 24% below area Est $125k · 24% under $7/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home situated on 1 acre of mostly cleared land. Home features an open floor plan, a great kitchen with updated stainless steel appliances and large pantry. Large primary bathroom includes a soaking tub and and separate shower. Property offers easy access for travel and a spacious back deck, perfect for outdoor use. China cabinet to remain with the home. Seller is currently in the process of moving out and completing cleanup.

Key facts

• Spacious back deck
• Open floor plan
• Soaking tub

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE PANTRY
• SOAKING TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER
• SPACIOUS BACK DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#403 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mcdavidjones Elementary School (math 20% / reading 45%, grade F, #329 of 627 statewide, top 53%, 836 students, 69% FRL); Lott Middle School (math 9% / reading 44%, grade F, #150 of 257 statewide, top 60%, 429 students, 82% FRL); Citronelle High School (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #261 of 305 statewide, top 87%, 719 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $71k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.96%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $124,632
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -23.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $61,534
• Equity at exit: $85,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.52×
• Total profit: $173,436
• Equity at exit: $184,564

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36521

• Home prices YoY: 13.5%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $946 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $576/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$7
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $750

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $208	-5% $181	+0% $154	+5% $127	+10% $100
Rent	-10% $79	-5% $117	+0% $154	+5% $192	+10% $229
Rate	-1.0pp $202	-0.5pp $178	base $154	+0.5pp $130	+1.0pp $105

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $7 · $84/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $95,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,900 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $99,900 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,900 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,900 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 43 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 42 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,900 Active 41 DOM
19. 2026-05-18
    price $105,000 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home situated on 1 acre of mostly cleared land. Home features an open floor plan, a great kitchen with updated stainless steel appliances and large pantry. Large primary bathroom includes a soaking tub and and separate shower. Property offers easy access for travel and a spacious back deck, perfect for outdoor use. China cabinet to remain with the home. Seller is currently in the process of moving out and completing cleanup.

20. 2026-05-04
    price $110,000 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home situated on 1 acre of mostly cleared land. Home features an open floor plan, a great kitchen with updated stainless steel appliances and large pantry. Large primary bathroom includes a soaking tub and and separate shower. Property offers easy access for travel and a spacious back deck, perfect for outdoor use. China cabinet to remain with the home. Seller is currently in the process of moving out and completing cleanup.

21. 2026-04-19
    listed $115,000 Active 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home situated on 1 acre of mostly cleared land. Home features an open floor plan, a great kitchen with updated stainless steel appliances and large pantry. Large primary bathroom includes a soaking tub and and separate shower. Property offers easy access for travel and a spacious back deck, perfect for outdoor use. China cabinet to remain with the home. Seller is currently in the process of moving out and completing cleanup.

22. 2010-03-19
    soldstatus $71,371

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $576 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $576 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,346
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$576
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$908
• − Management: −$908
• − HOA: −$84
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $311
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$75
• After-tax cash flow: $1,776/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Chunchula

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #403
• US rank: #22440

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,060

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.65%
• Current HPI: 391.2182
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+47.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $105,000 GCMLS AL
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $110,000 GCMLS AL
• 2026-04-19 Listed $115,000 GCMLS AL
• 2010-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $71,371 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $576 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.