Savannah Plan · Dayton, TX 77535

$369,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,657 sqft · SingleFamily · 123 Days on market

Excellent condition 3-car garage

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Cash flow +3.2/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Savannah! This two-story plan boasts an open-concept layout on the main floor, with an airy great room overlooking a dining area and a kitchen with a wraparound counter and a spacious island. You'll also find a private study and a convenient mud room on this level! The second floor features an expansive loft with ample space to customize for your lifestyle. The primary suite showcases a luxurious private bath with a walk-in shower and dual vanities. Three additional secondary bedrooms all offer walk-in closets.

Key facts

• Spacious island
• Wraparound counter
• Convenient mud room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• AIRY GREAT ROOM
• WRAPAROUND COUNTER
• SPACIOUS ISLAND
• PRIVATE STUDY
• CONVENIENT MUD ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $369,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $411,639.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $370k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (39.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (47.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (47.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.5% vs local median 3.5% in Dayton — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,066 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Dayton ISD (town): math 34% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #512 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Richter El (math 38% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 875 students, 62% FRL); Wilson J H (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 1,396 students, 74% FRL); Dayton H S (math 45% / reading 45%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 1,633 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1607 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,641 (47.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.47% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.61%
• DSCR: 0.39
• GRM: 17.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $411,639
• List price: $369,990
• Delta: -10.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1265 Road 66112	0.12mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,692 (+1%)	2mo	$525,000	$195	84
1503 Northern Dr	0.22mi	4/3.5	2,450 (-8%)	1mo	$450,000	$184	72
229 Road 662	0.50mi	4/2.0	2,535 (-5%)	2mo	$355,000	$140	65
1324 Road 6604	0.45mi	4/3.5	2,500 (-6%)	1mo	$440,000	$176	64
31 Road 6609	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,510 (-6%)	1mo	$499,900	$199	64
1006 Road 6604	0.33mi	4/3.5	2,428 (-9%)	3mo	$380,000	$157	64
1515 Northern Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,326 (-12%)	1mo	$425,000	$183	63
3039 Coast Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,525 (-5%)	3mo	$474,900	$188	58
212 Road 6613	0.45mi	4/2.0	2,367 (-11%)	3mo	$365,000	$154	57
158 Road 6609	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,451 (-8%)	2mo	$369,975	$151	56
3035 Coast Dr	0.74mi	4/4.0	2,815 (+6%)	3mo	$539,000	$191	47
4037 Road 66124	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,994 (+13%)	3mo	$448,406	$150	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -41.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-149,923
• Equity at exit: $61,377

10-year hold

• IRR: -70.7%
• Equity multiple: -1.06×
• Total profit: $-237,627
• Equity at exit: $35,591

Cash invested: $115,259 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 65 active · 36 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.7 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $447,990 ($184/sqft)
• Median days on market: 77 d
• This list price: 6% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -15.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77535

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Active inventory: 1607
• Price-to-rent: 15.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,946 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,159
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$515 /mo · $6,175/yr
• Insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-1,307

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,601

Max offer price $222,502

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,023	-5% $-1,165	+0% $-1,307	+5% $-1,449	+10% $-1,592
Rent	-10% $-1,461	-5% $-1,384	+0% $-1,307	+5% $-1,230	+10% $-1,153
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,100	-0.5pp $-1,202	base $-1,307	+0.5pp $-1,414	+1.0pp $-1,522

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,910
• Closing costs: $12,349
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Dayton, TX (1355 Coastal Dr)
• Financial info: List price $369,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage / parking spaces (total 3)
• Home design: Single-family home (Savannah plan)Listed as Active
• Construction: New construction (plan name: Savannah)Built/Offered in 2026 (listing year)
• Exterior features: New construction plan (Savannah)Living area of approximately 2,657

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes a kitchen (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living areas (plan-based new construction)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $369,990 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $369,990 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $369,990 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $369,990 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $369,990 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $369,990 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $369,990 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $369,990 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $369,990 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $369,990 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $369,990 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $369,990 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $369,990 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $369,990 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $369,990 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $369,990 Active 102 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $369,990 Active 100 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $369,990 Active 98 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $369,990 Active 97 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $369,990 Active 96 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $369,990 Active 94 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $369,990 Active 93 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $369,990 Active 92 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $369,990 Active 91 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $369,990 Active 90 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $369,990 Active 89 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $369,990 Active 88 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $369,990 Active 87 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $369,990 Active 86 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $369,990 Active 85 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $369,990 Active 84 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $369,990 Active 83 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $369,990 Active 82 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $369,990 Active 81 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $369,990 Active 80 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $369,990 Active 79 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $369,990 Active 78 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $369,990 Active 77 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $369,990 Active 75 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $369,990 Active 74 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $369,990 Active 73 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $369,990 Active 72 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $369,990 Active 69 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $369,990 Active 67 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $369,990 Active 66 DOM
46. 2026-07-26
    days on market $369,990 Active 64 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $369,990 Active 62 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $369,990 Active 61 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $369,990 Active 60 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $369,990 Active 59 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,357
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,058
• − Property taxes: −$6,175
• − Insurance: −$2,058
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,869
• − Management: −$1,869
• − Depreciation: −$11,975
• Taxable loss: −$23,646
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,675
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,010/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home in Dayton, TX, is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained features. It offers a great opportunity for an investor to purchase a move-in-ready property with potential for further value enhancement.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior stone to enhance curb appeal — Fresh paint can make the home stand out and attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Modern technology can increase the home's appeal and marketability. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive to potential buyers/renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Richter El F TX #1,921/4,322 Nat'l #22,595/41,679 Middle Kimmie M Brown El F TX #2,982/4,322 Nat'l #29,743/41,679 High Dayton H S D- TX #643/1,632 Nat'l #6,809/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816410
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,293
• Composite: 30.25/100
• National rank: #6287
• State rank: #512 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1066
• US rank: #18940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 87,956 people
• City population: 82,189
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,504
• Household income: $84,497
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

---

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.61%
• Current HPI: 229.0925
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Dayton, TX (1355 Coastal Dr)
• Financial info: List price $369,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage / parking spaces (total 3)
• Home design: Single-family home (Savannah plan)Listed as Active
• Construction: New construction (plan name: Savannah)Built/Offered in 2026 (listing year)
• Exterior features: New construction plan (Savannah)Living area of approximately 2,657

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes a kitchen (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living areas (plan-based new construction)