153 Buckboard Trl · Western Lake, TX 76087

$170,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Land · 111 Days on market

Built 2002 0.54 ac lot $126/sqft · 22% below area Est $219k · 22% under ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on over Half an Acre and conveniently located between Lake Granbury and Downtown Weatherford-- This property offers the peacefulness of country living while still maintaining dining, shopping, entertainment as well as tons of outdoor activities close by. Surrounded by mature trees and fully fenced with a wrought iron gated entrance, this home has both privacy and security. The interior features 4 Bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with an open concept in the living area, all new windows, and fresh interior paint throughout. Secondary bedrooms include new carpet, new ceiling fans, and ample closet space. The primary suite features an oversized walk-in closet and a private en-suite bath complete with double vanities, a garden tub, and a separate stand-up shower. The exterior is where this property truly shines. Custom stonework surrounds the home, giving it the appearance and curb appeal of a traditional home. A recently added pea gravel driveway leads to the massive, all-metal carport with electricity; ideal for mechanics, hosting large gatherings, or even RV and boat storage. The expansive outdoor space delivers quiet evenings under the trees and endless potential for gardening, new projects, and still more than enough room for children and pets. With updated plumbing added to the existing septic system and well-maintained grounds, the property is ready for its next owner. Welcome home!

Key facts

• Custom stonework
• Half an acre
• Pea gravel driveway

Tags

• HALF AN ACRE
• WROUGHT IRON GATED ENTRANCE
• CUSTOM STONEWORK
• PEA GRAVEL DRIVEWAY
• MASSIVE ALL-METAL CARPORT
• UPDATED PLUMBING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $729 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 1.9% in Western Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,506 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, crime F.
• Weatherford ISD (town): math 39% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #321 of 826 in TX (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 649 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,700 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.37%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $218,923
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -22.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $13,902
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $52,427
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76087

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 649
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,183 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $401/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $729

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,260

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $170,000 Pending 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active Option Contract 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $170,000 Active Option Contract 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $170,000 Active Option Contract 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $170,000 Active Option Contract 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $170,000 Active Option Contract 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $170,000 Active Option Contract 104 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $170,000 Active Option Contract 103 DOM
9. 2026-04-20
   price $170,000 1413-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1413 chars)

   Situated on over Half an Acre and conveniently located between Lake Granbury and Downtown Weatherford-- This property offers the peacefulness of country living while still maintaining dining, shopping, entertainment as well as tons of outdoor activities close by. Surrounded by mature trees and fully fenced with a wrought iron gated entrance, this home has both privacy and security. The interior features 4 Bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with an open concept in the living area, all new windows, and fresh interior paint throughout. Secondary bedrooms include new carpet, new ceiling fans, and ample closet space. The primary suite features an oversized walk-in closet and a private en-suite bath complete with double vanities, a garden tub, and a separate stand-up shower. The exterior is where this property truly shines. Custom stonework surrounds the home, giving it the appearance and curb appeal of a traditional home. A recently added pea gravel driveway leads to the massive, all-metal carport with electricity; ideal for mechanics, hosting large gatherings, or even RV and boat storage. The expansive outdoor space delivers quiet evenings under the trees and endless potential for gardening, new projects, and still more than enough room for children and pets. With updated plumbing added to the existing septic system and well-maintained grounds, the property is ready for its next owner. Welcome home!

10. 2026-03-23
    price $200,000 1413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1413 chars)

    Situated on over Half an Acre and conveniently located between Lake Granbury and Downtown Weatherford-- This property offers the peacefulness of country living while still maintaining dining, shopping, entertainment as well as tons of outdoor activities close by. Surrounded by mature trees and fully fenced with a wrought iron gated entrance, this home has both privacy and security. The interior features 4 Bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with an open concept in the living area, all new windows, and fresh interior paint throughout. Secondary bedrooms include new carpet, new ceiling fans, and ample closet space. The primary suite features an oversized walk-in closet and a private en-suite bath complete with double vanities, a garden tub, and a separate stand-up shower. The exterior is where this property truly shines. Custom stonework surrounds the home, giving it the appearance and curb appeal of a traditional home. A recently added pea gravel driveway leads to the massive, all-metal carport with electricity; ideal for mechanics, hosting large gatherings, or even RV and boat storage. The expansive outdoor space delivers quiet evenings under the trees and endless potential for gardening, new projects, and still more than enough room for children and pets. With updated plumbing added to the existing septic system and well-maintained grounds, the property is ready for its next owner. Welcome home!

11. 2026-03-09
    soldstatus
12. 2026-02-17
    listed $220,000 Active 1413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1413 chars)

    Situated on over Half an Acre and conveniently located between Lake Granbury and Downtown Weatherford-- This property offers the peacefulness of country living while still maintaining dining, shopping, entertainment as well as tons of outdoor activities close by. Surrounded by mature trees and fully fenced with a wrought iron gated entrance, this home has both privacy and security. The interior features 4 Bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with an open concept in the living area, all new windows, and fresh interior paint throughout. Secondary bedrooms include new carpet, new ceiling fans, and ample closet space. The primary suite features an oversized walk-in closet and a private en-suite bath complete with double vanities, a garden tub, and a separate stand-up shower. The exterior is where this property truly shines. Custom stonework surrounds the home, giving it the appearance and curb appeal of a traditional home. A recently added pea gravel driveway leads to the massive, all-metal carport with electricity; ideal for mechanics, hosting large gatherings, or even RV and boat storage. The expansive outdoor space delivers quiet evenings under the trees and endless potential for gardening, new projects, and still more than enough room for children and pets. With updated plumbing added to the existing septic system and well-maintained grounds, the property is ready for its next owner. Welcome home!

13. 2023-07-18
    soldstatus
14. 2006-11-28
    soldstatus
15. 2004-05-07
    soldstatus
16. 1992-01-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $401 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,111 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,710/yr (+$226/mo · 675.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,192
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$401
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,095
• − Management: −$2,095
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $6,282
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,508
• After-tax cash flow: $7,235/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weatherford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844800
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,087
• Composite: 36.4/100
• National rank: #4679
• State rank: #321 of 826 in TX

Livability — Western Lake

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1506
• US rank: #25775

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing F Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Western Lake, TX
• County: Parker County · 144,797 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,822
• Household income: $114,306
• Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 497.0

Population outlook (Parker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 147,426 people
• By 2030: 157,863 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 177,519 · +20.4%
• By 2050: 194,786 · +32.1%
• By 2075: 238,799 · +62.0%
• By 2100: 264,126 · +79.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Parker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.4% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -55.2pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.16%
• Current HPI: 214.6694
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.73%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $170,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $200,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-02-17 Listed $220,000 NTREIS
• 2023-07-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-11-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-05-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-01-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $401 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.