Cayman Plan · Lakeside, FL 32068

$224,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,433 sqft · Townhouse · 181 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Cayman floor plan epitomizes contemporary living with its spacious and stylish layout, spanning 1,433 square feet. Featuring three bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms, this home strikes the perfect balance between comfort and functionality for both residents and guests. The heart of the home is its expansive open-concept living and dining areas, ideal for casual family gatherings or more formal entertaining. The well-equipped kitchen boasts modern appliances, ample storage, and plenty of counter space, catering to the needs of any culinary enthusiast. A convenient one-car garage offers both security and additional storage space. Designed with low-maintenance living in mind, the Cayman

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 181 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 3571 Athenian Way, Middleburg FL 32068; Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $253,490

Exterior

• Home design: Cayman plan; New construction plan
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,433 (plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan home (Cayman)

🏗️ New construction. The $224,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $239,311.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-991/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.7% in Lakeside — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#505 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tynes Elementary School (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 1,021 students, 43% FRL); Wilkinson Junior High School (math 54% / reading 49%, grade C, #232 of 571 statewide, top 41%, 752 students, 100% FRL); Oakleaf High School (math 47% / reading 53%, grade D+, #175 of 667 statewide, top 27%, 2,371 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 35% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $197,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.48%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $239,311
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3764 Athenian Way	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,433 (0%)	0mo	$240,990	$168	94
3817 Athenian Way	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,433 (0%)	1mo	$240,990	$168	92
3839 Athenian Way	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,433 (0%)	1mo	$240,990	$168	92
3821 Athenian Way	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,433 (0%)	1mo	$240,990	$168	91
3769 Athenian Way	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,433 (0%)	2mo	$240,000	$167	91
3761 Athenian Way	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,433 (0%)	3mo	$229,990	$160	91
3805 Athenian Way	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,433 (0%)	2mo	$239,990	$167	91
3833 Athenian Way	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,433 (0%)	2mo	$239,990	$167	91
3813 Athenian Way	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,433 (0%)	2mo	$235,000	$164	91
3843 Athenian Way	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,433 (0%)	2mo	$240,000	$167	91
3801 Athenian Way	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,433 (0%)	2mo	$240,990	$168	91
3809 Athenian Way	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,433 (0%)	2mo	$239,990	$167	90

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-43,304
• Equity at exit: $35,682

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-41,453
• Equity at exit: $20,691

Cash invested: $67,007 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,989 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,255
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$299 /mo · $3,590/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,093

Max offer price $227,364

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $83	-5% $0	+0% $-83	+5% $-165	+10% $-248
Rent	-10% $-240	-5% $-161	+0% $-83	+5% $-4	+10% $75
Rate	-1.0pp $38	-0.5pp $-22	base $-83	+0.5pp $-145	+1.0pp $-208

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,828
• Closing costs: $7,179
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3764 Athenian Way Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1433	$1,900	$1.33	5d	1	0.15mi
1250 Hillpointe Cir Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,636	$1.40	5d	5	0.25mi
1568 Backwater Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1594	$1,895	$1.19	25d	1	1.04mi
728 Sunny Stroll Dr Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1860	$2,200	$1.18	25d	1	1.15mi
1953 Longneedle Ln Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1564	$1,965	$1.26	19d	1	1.26mi
1633 Bridger Trce Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1502	$1,900	$1.26	25d	1	1.39mi
1469 Jeremiah St Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1468	$2,000	$1.36	25d	1	1.40mi
903 Rivertree Pl Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,695	$1.46	9d	1	1.42mi
1685 Bridger Trce Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1210	$1,900	$1.57	25d	1	1.44mi
1255 Tahoe Ct Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,916	$1.47	9d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $224,990 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,990 Active 178 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,990 Active 177 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,990 Active 176 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,990 Active 175 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,990 Active 173 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $224,990 Active 172 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,490 Active 169 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $254,490 Active 168 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $254,490 Active 167 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $254,490 Active 163 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $254,490 Active 162 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $254,490 Active 161 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,490 Active 160 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,867
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,405
• − Property taxes: −$3,590
• − Insurance: −$1,197
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,909
• − Management: −$1,909
• − Depreciation: −$6,962
• Taxable loss: −$5,105
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,225
• After-tax cash flow: $234/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeside

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #505
• US rank: #9341

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B