16657 E Forrestal · Conroe, TX 77316

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured public records · 105 Days on market

Built 2013 6,333 sqft lot $184/sqft · 60% above area $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the charm of this delightful updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home located in the peaceful community of Lake Conroe Village, situated on top of three lots, just minutes from Montgomery, TX. This inviting residence offers a comfortable and practical layout, perfect for those seeking to be near the lake. A new shed in the backyard is an excellent addition to the lot, which can turn into a storage, a tiny home, or a functional workshop.

Key facts

• Three lots
• Peaceful community
• Near the lake

Tags

• UPDATED MANUFACTURED HOME
• PEACEFUL COMMUNITY
• THREE LOTS
• NEW SHED
• NEAR THE LAKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $54 ($650/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $150,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.41%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,221
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: 59.85%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-27,197
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-34,463
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,550 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,437/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,481

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16928 Kempwood Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	43d	1	0.31mi
16967 W Ivanhoe Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,350	$1.33	12d	1	0.35mi
1406 April Villas Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$1,150	$1.53	24d	1	0.64mi
1406 April Villas Unit C Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	717	$1,150	$1.60	24d	1	0.64mi
1050 S Pine Lake Rd Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,845	$1.75	24d	1	0.83mi
298 Capetown Way Unit A Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,400	$1.27	43d	1	0.84mi
275 Pine Terrace Dr Unit 1103A Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	709	$1,210	$1.71	43d	1	1.09mi
275 Pine Terrace Dr Unit 1201A Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	923	$1,775	$1.92	43d	1	1.09mi
275 Pine Terrace Dr Unit 1101A Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	821	$1,855	$2.26	43d	1	1.09mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-03-05
    listed $165,000 Active 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    Discover the charm of this delightful updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home located in the peaceful community of Lake Conroe Village, situated on top of three lots, just minutes from Montgomery, TX. This inviting residence offers a comfortable and practical layout, perfect for those seeking to be near the lake. A new shed in the backyard is an excellent addition to the lot, which can turn into a storage, a tiny home, or a functional workshop.

16. 2025-12-31
    historical
17. 2025-10-27
    listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,437 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$582/yr (+$49/mo · 23.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,597
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,437
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,488
• − Management: −$1,488
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,079
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$499
• After-tax cash flow: $1,149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-27 Listed $175,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+35.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,437 · +12.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.