564 Main St · Cairo, NY 12413

$225,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,936 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1910 0.28 ac lot Est $347k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming property in a prime location right on Main Street in Cairo! This beautiful home offers a spacious lot, private driveway, and plenty of parking, perfect for a full-time residence, weekend getaway, or an investor's next project. With just a few minor repairs needed, the potential is endless. Nestled in the heart of the Catskills, you're only minutes from the town of Catskill, top-rated coffee shops, Hunter and Windham ski resorts, and fantastic restaurants in Tannersville. Motivated seller, don't miss this opportunity to own in one of the area's most desirable locations!

Key facts

• Minutes from town
• Private driveway
• Ski resorts

Tags

• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• SPACIOUS LOT
• MINUTES FROM TOWN
• TOP RATED COFFEE SHOPS
• SKI RESORTS
• FANTASTIC RESTAURANTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-159 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.9% in Cairo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#755 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Cairo-Durham Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #470 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cairo-Durham Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 439 students, 60% FRL); Cairo-Durham Middle School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #448 of 729 statewide, top 63%, 256 students, 62% FRL); Cairo-Durham High School (math 92% / reading 90%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 325 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 40% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $176,642 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.04%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $346,544
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33 Jerome Ave	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,895 (-2%)	17mo	$185,000	$98	77
20 John Peter Dr	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,180 (+13%)	13mo	$445,000	$204	37
6 Williams St	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,670 (-14%)	19mo	$299,730	$179	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $112,412
• Equity at exit: $202,698

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.38×
• Total profit: $339,074
• Equity at exit: $437,126

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12413

• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,766 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $-159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,968

Max offer price $201,927

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4	-5% $-82	+0% $-159	+5% $-237	+10% $-315
Rent	-10% $-299	-5% $-229	+0% $-159	+5% $-90	+10% $-20
Rate	-1.0pp $-46	-0.5pp $-102	base $-159	+0.5pp $-218	+1.0pp $-277

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-18
   listed $225,000 Active
2. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
3. 2026-02-18
   historical Active Under Contract
4. 2025-11-18
   price $220,000
5. 2025-09-30
   listed $240,000 Active
6. 2025-07-24
   price $239,900
7. 2025-04-12
   listed $249,900 Active
8. 2024-11-07
   listed $249,900
9. 2022-02-18
   soldstatus $160,000
10. 2021-07-26
    listed $199,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,197
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,696
• − Management: −$1,696
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$5,843
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,402
• After-tax cash flow: $-511/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cairo-Durham Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606160
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,192
• Composite: 37.84/100
• National rank: #4330
• State rank: #470 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cairo

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #755
• US rank: #14433

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cairo, NY
• City population: 3,406
• Population (ZIP): 3,406

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,963 people
• By 2030: 43,126 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 38,756 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 34,913 · -22.4%
• By 2075: 28,156 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 22,296 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 41.5% · R 58.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 140.58%
• Current HPI: 406.4299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+12.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $225,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-18 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2026-02-18 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $220,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listed $240,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $239,900 HVCRMLS
• 2025-04-12 Listed $249,900 HVCRMLS
• 2024-11-07 Listed $249,900 HVCRMLS
• 2022-02-18 Sold (MLS) $160,000 HVCRMLS
• 2021-07-26 Listed $199,900 HVCRMLS