Cedar Plan · Barboursville, VA 22923

$399,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,903 sqft · SingleFamily · 394 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Creekside 2-Story: resort-style, amenity-filled community of two-story single-family homes with 2-car garages, less than 10 minutes from Charlottesville. The Cedar single-family home blends function and elegance. Enter the foyer and head to the great room, which flows effortlessly into the gourmet kitchen with island, and the dining area. Beyond that, a hall leads to a powder room and flex space that can be converted into a home office, hobby room, or extra play space. Upstairs 3 of the 4 bedrooms boast walk-in closets. Your luxurious owner's suite features lots of living space, a huge walk-in closet, and a double vanity bath. The Cedar is must-see. Schedule your visit today!

Key facts

• Flex space
• Gourmet kitchen
• Walk-in closets

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• FLEX SPACE
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• DOUBLE VANITY BATH
• BASEMENT HOMESITES

🏗️ New construction. The $399,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $423,548.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $400k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-470 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $356k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $311k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $311k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Greene County Public School District (town): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #88 of 131 in VA (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ruckersville Elementary (math 54% / reading 62%, grade C+, #583 of 1,108 statewide, top 53%, 506 students, 68% FRL); William Monroe Middle (math 36% / reading 65%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 675 students, 67% FRL); William Monroe High (math 40% / reading 78%, grade C+, #256 of 319 statewide, top 81%, 957 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 32% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 239 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 204 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($118k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 394 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $311,079 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 394 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.75%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $423,548
• List price: $399,990
• Delta: -5.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
140 Gunnison Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0	1,925 (+1%)	3mo	$465,000	$242	86
27 Everglades Rd	0.28mi	4/2.5	1,903 (0%)	3mo	$416,980	$219	84
47 Everglades Rd	0.30mi	4/2.5	1,903 (0%)	3mo	$421,480	$221	83
39 Everglades Rd	0.30mi	4/2.5	1,903 (0%)	4mo	$418,980	$220	82
44 Flintstone Ct	0.19mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,993 (+5%)	2mo	$420,000	$211	77
383 White Sands Blvd	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,696 (-11%)	3mo	$443,675	$262	69
355 White Sands Blvd	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,696 (-11%)	3mo	$438,170	$258	65
48 Sequoia Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,723 (-10%)	2mo	$428,175	$249	64
40 Sequoia Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,696 (-11%)	1mo	$445,625	$263	63
6092 Flintstone Dr	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,730 (-9%)	3mo	$389,900	$225	59
75 Lumber Ln	0.25mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,692 (-11%)	4mo	$353,000	$209	58
212 Oak View Rd	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,126 (+12%)	1mo	$460,000	$216	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-98,490
• Equity at exit: $63,152

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-124,079
• Equity at exit: $36,621

Cash invested: $118,594 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 44 active · 50 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.6 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $399,990 ($232/sqft)
• Median days on market: 27 d
• This list price: 45% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -4.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 22923

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 239
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,111 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,221
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$529 /mo · $6,353/yr
• Insurance: −$176
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$653
• Net cashflow: $-470

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,705

Max offer price $355,608

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-177	-5% $-323	+0% $-470	+5% $-616	+10% $-762
Rent	-10% $-715	-5% $-592	+0% $-470	+5% $-347	+10% $-224
Rate	-1.0pp $-256	-0.5pp $-362	base $-470	+0.5pp $-579	+1.0pp $-691

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,887
• Closing costs: $12,706
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
92 Everglades RD Barboursville, VA	4.0	2.5	1903	$2,795	$1.47	62d	1	0.31mi
32 Estes Ct Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,600	$1.86	62d	1	0.37mi
95 Terrace Greene Cir Barboursville, VA	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.5	1464	$2,950	$2.01	0d	12	0.57mi
144 Lake Saponi Dr #7 Barboursville, VA	3.0	1.5	1260	$2,000	$1.59	22d	1	0.63mi
54 Mannie Ct Barboursville, VA	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,600	$1.55	62d	1	0.76mi
50 Grayson Village DR Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.5	1470	$2,095	$1.43	0d	1	0.78mi
59 Grayson Village DR Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.5	1470	$2,100	$1.43	0d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $399,990 Active 394 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $399,990 Active 393 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $399,990 Active 392 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $399,990 Active 391 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $399,990 Active 390 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $399,990 Active 389 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   pricedays on market $399,990 Active 386 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $389,990 Active 385 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $389,990 Active 384 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $389,990 Active 382 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $389,990 Active 380 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $389,990 Active 379 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $389,990 Active 378 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $389,990 Active 377 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $389,990 Active 376 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $389,990 Active 373 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $389,990 Active 371 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    pricedays on market $389,990 Active 370 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $399,990 Active 369 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $399,990 Active 368 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $399,990 Active 367 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $399,990 Active 366 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $399,990 Active 365 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $399,990 Active 364 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $399,990 Active 363 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $399,990 Active 362 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $399,990 Active 361 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $399,990 Active 360 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $399,990 Active 359 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $399,990 Active 358 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $399,990 Active 357 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $399,990 Active 356 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $399,990 Active 355 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $399,990 Active 354 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $399,990 Active 353 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $399,990 Active 352 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $399,990 Active 351 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $399,990 Active 349 DOM
39. 2026-06-23
    days on market $399,990 Active 347 DOM
40. 2026-06-22
    days on market $399,990 Active 346 DOM
41. 2026-06-19
    days on market $399,990 Active 344 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $399,990 Active 343 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $399,990 Active 342 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $399,990 Active 341 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    pricedays on market $399,990 Active 340 DOM
46. 2026-06-14
    days on market $394,990 Active 338 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    days on market $394,990 Active 337 DOM
48. 2026-06-10
    days on market $394,990 Active 335 DOM
49. 2026-06-09
    days on market $394,990 Active 334 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $394,990 Active 333 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,329
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,725
• − Property taxes: −$6,353
• − Insurance: −$2,118
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,986
• − Management: −$2,986
• − Depreciation: −$12,321
• Taxable loss: −$13,161
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,159
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,476/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in a desirable location offers a good starting point for potential buyers or renters. Minor updates to the exterior and interior can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Upgrading bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ruckersville Elementary C+ VA #583/1,108 Nat'l #8,292/41,679 Middle William Monroe Middle C VA #226/342 Nat'l #3,367/14,009 High William Monroe High C+ VA #256/319 Nat'l #3,898/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101710
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,129
• Composite: 45.22/100
• National rank: #2668
• State rank: #88 of 131 in VA

Livability — Barboursville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 20,465 people
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 6,435
• Household income: $118,125
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own

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Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,465 people
• By 2030: 20,958 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 21,619 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 21,699 · +6.0%
• By 2075: 21,656 · +5.8%
• By 2100: 20,156 · -1.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.0% · R 61.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -21.9pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.41%
• Current HPI: 303.0348
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-8.4% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $379,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $399,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $409,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $399,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $434,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $449,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-06 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-11-19 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $414,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-05 Price Changed $409,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $424,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $419,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $429,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $424,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $419,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $414,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-24 Price Changed $399,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-11 Price Changed $419,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-16 Price Changed $424,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed $419,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-06 Price Changed $424,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-30 Price Changed $419,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-25 Listed $414,990 Zillow