170 Ashley Trace Dr · Heron Bay, GA 30248

$269,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,757 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 158 Days on market

Built 1994 $154/sqft · at area comps Est $284k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This awesome split bedroom ranch is ready for new owners. Walk thru the front door into a nice sized foyer, off the foyer is a beautiful formal dining room, from the dining room you can enter the fairly new remodeled kitchen which has beautiful solid surface countertops, farm house sink and top of the line appliances. There is a nice spacious greatroom with a fireplace and back door that leads to a nice inviting deck that is perfect for entertaining. The laundry room is spacious with a nice pantry. On one side of the house is a very spacious primary bedroom that leads into a large bath with a garden tub, seperate shower and double sink vanity. The other side of the house features 2 more large bedrooms and a hall bath in between. The home was remodeled in 2022 with new wood flooring thru-out except the kitchen and bathrooms, new architectural shingled roof, new 50 gal hot water heater, new countertops, backsplash and appliances in kitchen and the crawl space encapsulated. This home has been very well maintained. Call listing agent to view!

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Remodeled kitchen
• Farm house sink

Tags

• SPLIT BEDROOM RANCH
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• SOLID SURFACE COUNTERTOPS
• FARM HOUSE SINK
• TOP OF THE LINE APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-419/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (25.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Heron Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#159 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Henry County (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #89 of 174 in GA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 496 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,989 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (92 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,472 (25.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.55%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,920
• List price: $269,900
• Delta: -4.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
162 Ashley Trace Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,880 (+7%)	14mo	$320,000	$170	76
1004 Hamilton Dr	0.32mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,853 (+6%)	12mo	$278,000	$150	57
726 Derek Pl	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,742 (-1%)	23mo	$280,000	$161	52
1144 Pickets Ridge Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,955 (+11%)	12mo	$315,000	$161	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-47,767
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-51,756
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30248

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 496
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,025 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,279/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,069

Max offer price $263,735

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
420 Underwood Ct Locust Grove, GA	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,546	$0.99	5d	1	1.23mi
645 Everlasting Way Locust Grove, GA	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,885	$1.26	5d	1	1.41mi
613 Everlasting Way Locust Grove, GA	3.0	2.0	1493	$1,869	$1.25	3d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Under Contract 1058-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1058 chars)

   This awesome split bedroom ranch is ready for new owners. Walk thru the front door into a nice sized foyer, off the foyer is a beautiful formal dining room, from the dining room you can enter the fairly new remodeled kitchen which has beautiful solid surface countertops, farm house sink and top of the line appliances. There is a nice spacious greatroom with a fireplace and back door that leads to a nice inviting deck that is perfect for entertaining. The laundry room is spacious with a nice pantry. On one side of the house is a very spacious primary bedroom that leads into a large bath with a garden tub, seperate shower and double sink vanity. The other side of the house features 2 more large bedrooms and a hall bath in between. The home was remodeled in 2022 with new wood flooring thru-out except the kitchen and bathrooms, new architectural shingled roof, new 50 gal hot water heater, new countertops, backsplash and appliances in kitchen and the crawl space encapsulated. This home has been very well maintained. Call listing agent to view!

2. 2026-04-22
   price $269,900 1058-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1058 chars)

   This awesome split bedroom ranch is ready for new owners. Walk thru the front door into a nice sized foyer, off the foyer is a beautiful formal dining room, from the dining room you can enter the fairly new remodeled kitchen which has beautiful solid surface countertops, farm house sink and top of the line appliances. There is a nice spacious greatroom with a fireplace and back door that leads to a nice inviting deck that is perfect for entertaining. The laundry room is spacious with a nice pantry. On one side of the house is a very spacious primary bedroom that leads into a large bath with a garden tub, seperate shower and double sink vanity. The other side of the house features 2 more large bedrooms and a hall bath in between. The home was remodeled in 2022 with new wood flooring thru-out except the kitchen and bathrooms, new architectural shingled roof, new 50 gal hot water heater, new countertops, backsplash and appliances in kitchen and the crawl space encapsulated. This home has been very well maintained. Call listing agent to view!

3. 2026-03-23
   price $284,900 1058-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1058 chars)

   This awesome split bedroom ranch is ready for new owners. Walk thru the front door into a nice sized foyer, off the foyer is a beautiful formal dining room, from the dining room you can enter the fairly new remodeled kitchen which has beautiful solid surface countertops, farm house sink and top of the line appliances. There is a nice spacious greatroom with a fireplace and back door that leads to a nice inviting deck that is perfect for entertaining. The laundry room is spacious with a nice pantry. On one side of the house is a very spacious primary bedroom that leads into a large bath with a garden tub, seperate shower and double sink vanity. The other side of the house features 2 more large bedrooms and a hall bath in between. The home was remodeled in 2022 with new wood flooring thru-out except the kitchen and bathrooms, new architectural shingled roof, new 50 gal hot water heater, new countertops, backsplash and appliances in kitchen and the crawl space encapsulated. This home has been very well maintained. Call listing agent to view!

4. 2026-03-10
   price $294,900 1058-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1058 chars)

   This awesome split bedroom ranch is ready for new owners. Walk thru the front door into a nice sized foyer, off the foyer is a beautiful formal dining room, from the dining room you can enter the fairly new remodeled kitchen which has beautiful solid surface countertops, farm house sink and top of the line appliances. There is a nice spacious greatroom with a fireplace and back door that leads to a nice inviting deck that is perfect for entertaining. The laundry room is spacious with a nice pantry. On one side of the house is a very spacious primary bedroom that leads into a large bath with a garden tub, seperate shower and double sink vanity. The other side of the house features 2 more large bedrooms and a hall bath in between. The home was remodeled in 2022 with new wood flooring thru-out except the kitchen and bathrooms, new architectural shingled roof, new 50 gal hot water heater, new countertops, backsplash and appliances in kitchen and the crawl space encapsulated. This home has been very well maintained. Call listing agent to view!

5. 2026-01-17
   price $299,900 1058-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1058 chars)

   This awesome split bedroom ranch is ready for new owners. Walk thru the front door into a nice sized foyer, off the foyer is a beautiful formal dining room, from the dining room you can enter the fairly new remodeled kitchen which has beautiful solid surface countertops, farm house sink and top of the line appliances. There is a nice spacious greatroom with a fireplace and back door that leads to a nice inviting deck that is perfect for entertaining. The laundry room is spacious with a nice pantry. On one side of the house is a very spacious primary bedroom that leads into a large bath with a garden tub, seperate shower and double sink vanity. The other side of the house features 2 more large bedrooms and a hall bath in between. The home was remodeled in 2022 with new wood flooring thru-out except the kitchen and bathrooms, new architectural shingled roof, new 50 gal hot water heater, new countertops, backsplash and appliances in kitchen and the crawl space encapsulated. This home has been very well maintained. Call listing agent to view!

6. 2025-11-24
   listed $309,900 New 1058-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1058 chars)

   This awesome split bedroom ranch is ready for new owners. Walk thru the front door into a nice sized foyer, off the foyer is a beautiful formal dining room, from the dining room you can enter the fairly new remodeled kitchen which has beautiful solid surface countertops, farm house sink and top of the line appliances. There is a nice spacious greatroom with a fireplace and back door that leads to a nice inviting deck that is perfect for entertaining. The laundry room is spacious with a nice pantry. On one side of the house is a very spacious primary bedroom that leads into a large bath with a garden tub, seperate shower and double sink vanity. The other side of the house features 2 more large bedrooms and a hall bath in between. The home was remodeled in 2022 with new wood flooring thru-out except the kitchen and bathrooms, new architectural shingled roof, new 50 gal hot water heater, new countertops, backsplash and appliances in kitchen and the crawl space encapsulated. This home has been very well maintained. Call listing agent to view!

7. 2023-08-30
   historical
8. 2023-08-02
   status Back On Market
9. 2023-07-05
   status Active Under Contract
10. 2023-06-30
    historical
11. 2023-06-12
    historical Active Under Contract
12. 2023-06-01
    listed $305,000 New
13. 2023-06-01
    historical
14. 2023-05-09
    price $329,900
15. 2023-04-30
    listed $349,900 New
16. 2022-08-01
    soldstatus $295,000
17. 2022-07-28
    soldstatus $295,000 Sold
18. 2022-07-28
    soldstatus $295,000 Closed
19. 2022-07-15
    status Under Contract
20. 2022-07-15
    status Pending
21. 2022-06-25
    price $300,000
22. 2022-06-25
    price $300,000
23. 2022-06-11
    listed $312,000 Active
24. 2022-06-07
    listed $312,000 New
25. 2010-04-28
    soldstatus $76,000
26. 1996-09-25
    soldstatus $107,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,279 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,483 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,204/yr (+$100/mo · 94.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,297
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$1,279
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,944
• − Management: −$1,944
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$5,190
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,245
• After-tax cash flow: $827/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County
• NCES district ID: 1302820
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,594
• Composite: 26.13/100
• National rank: #7279
• State rank: #89 of 174 in GA

Livability — Heron Bay

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #159
• US rank: #10151

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henry County · 316,359 people
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 36,038
• Household income: $83,823
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 485.0

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 249,041 people
• By 2030: 264,369 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 294,459 · +18.2%
• By 2050: 322,249 · +29.4%
• By 2075: 392,310 · +57.5%
• By 2100: 437,836 · +75.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.7) · D 64.5% · R 34.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +37.1pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 29.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.7 2020: D+20.5 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.09%
• Current HPI: 203.5358
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.16%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+151.3% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $269,900 GAMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $284,900 GAMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $294,900 GAMLS
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $299,900 GAMLS
• 2025-11-24 Listed $309,900 GAMLS
• 2023-08-30 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2023-08-02 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2023-07-05 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2023-06-30 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2023-06-12 Contingent — GAMLS
• 2023-06-01 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2023-06-01 Listed $305,000 GAMLS
• 2023-05-09 Price Changed $329,900 GAMLS
• 2023-04-30 Listed $349,900 GAMLS
• 2022-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $295,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-28 Sold (MLS) $295,000 FMLS
• 2022-07-28 Sold (MLS) $295,000 GAMLS
• 2022-07-15 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-07-15 Pending — FMLS
• 2022-06-25 Price Changed $300,000 FMLS
• 2022-06-25 Price Changed $300,000 GAMLS
• 2022-06-11 Listed $312,000 FMLS
• 2022-06-07 Listed $312,000 GAMLS
• 2010-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
• 1996-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $107,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,279 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.