241 Lord St · Dunkirk, NY 14048

$125,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,700 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1922 8,000 sqft lot Est $121k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This spacious and well taken care of 2 story home has ample room inside and out thanks to the great amount of square footage inside and huge "L" shaped lot outside with shed and plenty of room to even put a pool or perhaps a pole barn/garage if so desired! There is a nice covered front porch and a attached rear mudroom/storage area which of course offers the convenience of entry points at both ends of the home. There is a full basement which contains the laundry area, utilities, hot water baseboard boiler, hot water tank, updated electric breakers, and workshop space. On the first floor there are 2 bedrooms and a full bathroom with tub as well as the kitchen/dining combo, living

Key facts

• 8,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1922
• Listed 28 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connected; High-speed internet available; Sewer connected; Public water connected
• Home design: 2-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Composite siding; Vinyl siding; Copper plumbing; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Existing construction
• Exterior features: Greenbelt; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Range hood; Exhaust fan; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen / country kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms; Bedroom 1 (first level); Bedroom 2 (first level); Bedroom 3 (second level); Bedroom 4 (second level); Guest quarters
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Baseboard heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Den; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Guest accommodations; Great room; Home office; Country kitchen; Living/dining room; Storage; Workshop; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-816/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $113k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (21.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $98k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 7.4% in Dunkirk — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#426 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dunkirk City School District (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $98,000 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.33%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $120,700
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
707 Monroe St	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,724 (+1%)	2mo	$72,000	$42	74
83 E Doughty St	0.16mi	3/1.5	1,575 (-7%)	10mo	$115,000	$73	72
91 W Doughty St	0.38mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,753 (+3%)	7mo	$174,900	$100	67
761 Deer St	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,696 (-0%)	5mo	$142,400	$84	64
3806 Franklin Ave	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,677 (-1%)	4mo	$227,500	$136	64
236 Townsend St	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,920 (+13%)	4mo	$105,000	$55	60
708 Grant Ave	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,575 (-7%)	9mo	$41,500	$26	60
14 N Beagle St	0.70mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,731 (+2%)	6mo	$37,500	$22	52
140 S Martin St	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,468 (-14%)	2mo	$135,000	$92	45
746 Park Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,505 (-12%)	8mo	$99,500	$66	40
629 Deer St	0.58mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,488 (-12%)	8mo	$105,000	$71	38
13 N Gazelle St	0.73mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,601 (-6%)	14mo	$56,000	$35	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $23,987
• Equity at exit: $70,311

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $76,520
• Equity at exit: $120,915

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14048

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $980 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,615/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $-68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,066

Max offer price $112,984

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
70 Greco Ln Dunkirk, NY	2.0	1.0	1079	$980	$0.91	44d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-21
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,615 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,864 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: +$249/yr (+$21/mo · 15.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,760
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,615
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$941
• − Management: −$941
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$3,000
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$720
• After-tax cash flow: $-96/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dunkirk City School District
• NCES district ID: 3609420
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,345
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7190
• State rank: #575 of 590 in NY

Livability — Dunkirk

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #426
• US rank: #7421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dunkirk, NY
• City population: 14,949
• Population (ZIP): 14,949

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 25% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.93%
• Current HPI: 325.9188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $125,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,615 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.