460 Moonlight Graham Blvd · Ward, AR 72176

$203,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,489 sqft · SingleFamily · 192 Days on market

Built 2026 6,098 sqft lot Est $211k · at est. $25/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Lovely Des Arc plan in Moonlight Meadows, located in Ward, AR! The Des Arc is a 2-story plan features 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths! Downstairs has the Living room, kitchen and dining with a half bath. All bedrooms are upstairs along with the utility room! These new construction homes feature modern finishes for comfortable living! Homes will have LVP flooring and carpet. In the kitchen and bathrooms, you’ll find beautiful granite countertops. Each home will feature Hardie® siding per plan. These homes come with a programmable thermostat! 10-year limited Homebuyer’s Warranty! All photos are stock photos, representative of plan only and may vary as built. Annual taxes is an est

Key facts

• Modern finishes
• Hardie siding
• Lvp flooring

Tags

• MODERN FINISHES
• LVP FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• HARDIE SIDING
• PROGRAMMABLE THERMOSTAT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing available: VA, FHA, Conventional, or Cash
• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $300

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water; Electric service available
• Home design: New construction; Builder: D.R. Horton
• Construction: Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Hardie Board siding; Paved road access; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Electric range; Dishwasher
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Washer connection; Electric dryer connection; Smoke detectors; Granite slab kitchen countertops; Sheetrock walls/ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Electric dryer connection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $203k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-239 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (17.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#66 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Cabot School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #29 of 238 in AR (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ward Central Elementary (math 57% / reading 42%, grade D, #93 of 454 statewide, top 23%, 494 students, 62% FRL); Cabot Middle School North (math 52% / reading 41%, grade D+, #49 of 201 statewide, top 26%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Cabot High School (math 29% / reading 45%, grade F, #64 of 292 statewide, top 26%, 2,198 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 185 units permitted in Lonoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Lonoke County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,497 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.04%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $211,438
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
460 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,489 (0%)	1mo	$200,000	$134	99
500 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,489 (0%)	4mo	$211,000	$142	97
391 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,586 (+6%)	1mo	$193,000	$122	81
341 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,586 (+6%)	1mo	$193,000	$122	81
10 Mill Creek Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,347 (-10%)	1mo	$205,000	$152	67
420 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,586 (+6%)	1mo	$215,000	$136	63
450 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,586 (+6%)	3mo	$200,000	$126	60
490 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,586 (+6%)	2mo	$204,000	$129	60
22 Magnolia Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-5%)	2mo	$212,000	$151	57
11 Birchwood Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,366 (-8%)	3mo	$200,000	$146	53
24 Magnolia Ln	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,414 (-5%)	2mo	$215,000	$152	51
846 Sweetwater Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,686 (+13%)	1mo	$285,000	$169	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $35,740
• Equity at exit: $119,435

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $119,462
• Equity at exit: $209,859

Cash invested: $56,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72176

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,505 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,065
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$254 /mo · $3,045/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $-239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,807

Max offer price $168,422

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-99	-5% $-169	+0% $-239	+5% $-309	+10% $-379
Rent	-10% $-358	-5% $-298	+0% $-239	+5% $-180	+10% $-120
Rate	-1.0pp $-137	-0.5pp $-187	base $-239	+0.5pp $-292	+1.0pp $-345

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,750
• Closing costs: $6,090
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Gold Meadows Loop Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,300	$0.88	25d	1	0.36mi
21 Windsor Park Dr Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,500	$1.04	25d	1	0.52mi
65 Birchwood Dr Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,650	$1.27	23d	1	0.74mi
21 Weatherwood Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,300	$1.12	25d	1	0.85mi
29 Green Apple Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	21d	1	0.85mi
23 Green Apple Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,450	$1.20	25d	1	0.86mi
21 Kasidyann Ct Ward, AR	4.0	2.0	1415	$1,795	$1.27	25d	1	1.34mi
561 Brewer St Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	46d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-21
   price $203,000
3. 2026-03-28
   price $211,000
4. 2026-03-28
   price $214,000
5. 2025-10-27
   listed $211,000 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,371
• − Property taxes: −$3,045
• − Insurance: −$1,015
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,445
• − Management: −$1,445
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$5,905
• Taxable loss: −$6,467
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,552
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,316/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cabot School District
• NCES district ID: 0503750
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,993
• Composite: 39.66/100
• National rank: #3912
• State rank: #29 of 238 in AR

Livability — Ward

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #8464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lonoke County · 46,130 people
• City population: 8,678
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 8,678
• Household income: $68,840
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 90.0

Population outlook (Lonoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,072 people
• By 2030: 80,673 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 84,977 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 87,778 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 91,398 · +17.1%
• By 2100: 87,858 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lonoke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.2% · R 75.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+52.8 2016: R+53.3 2012: R+50.9 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.35%
• Current HPI: 208.9387
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $203,000 CARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $211,000 CARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $214,000 CARMLS
• 2025-10-27 Listed $211,000 CARMLS