31018 Gayle Prairie Oak St · Waller, TX 77484

$229,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,827 sqft · Land · 13 Days on market

Built 2026 $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

As you enter the home from the extended front porch, you're welcomed into the foyer, where two bedrooms sit at the front of the home and share a full bath. Continuing down the hall, you'll find an additional bedroom and a conveniently located laundry room nearby. The heart of the home opens into the kitchen, seamlessly connected to the family room and dining area, creating an inviting space for gathering. A back patio extends off the dining area, offering a spot to enjoy the outdoors. Just off the dining area, the primary bedroom features a spacious walk-in closet and a private primary bath.

Key facts

• One story home
• Large island
• Soft close cabinets

Tags

• ONE STORY HOME
• MODERN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• SOFT CLOSE CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure provided
• HOA & community: Community managed by Sterling Association Services; Annual association fee of $750

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (under construction); Full ownership; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and cement siding construction; Builder: Starlight Homes
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Fully fenced backyard; Back yard fencing; Subdivision setting; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank flooring; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen and family room combo; Pantry; Self-closing cabinet doors and drawers; Tub with shower; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Ventilation
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer and dryer included

🏗️ New construction. The $229,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $269,365.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($246/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (5.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.0% in Waller — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,003 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1196 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $52k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $217,169 (5.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.33%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,365
• List price: $229,990
• Delta: -5.34%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-48,777
• Equity at exit: $40,163

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-65,671
• Equity at exit: $23,290

Cash invested: $75,422 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77484

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 1196
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,172 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,413
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,288/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,146

Max offer price $269,365

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $173	-5% $97	+0% $20	+5% $-56	+10% $-132
Rent	-10% $-151	-5% $-65	+0% $20	+5% $106	+10% $192
Rate	-1.0pp $156	-0.5pp $89	base $20	+0.5pp $-49	+1.0pp $-120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,341
• Closing costs: $8,081
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31406 Gayle Prairie Oaks St Waller, TX	4.0	3.0	2260	$2,450	$1.08	6d	1	0.40mi
17239 King Eider Rd Waller, TX	4.0	2.5	2260	$1,995	$0.88	14d	1	0.82mi
17227 King Eider Rd Waller, TX	5.0	3.0	2439	$2,145	$0.88	26d	1	0.83mi
17119 King Eider Rd Waller, TX	4.0	2.5	1994	$1,900	$0.95	23d	1	0.84mi
17222 King Eider Rd Waller, TX	4.0	2.5	2178	$1,935	$0.89	7d	1	0.86mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $229,990 Pending 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,990 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $229,990 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $229,990 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $229,990 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $229,990 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $229,990 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-05-08
   listed $254,990 Active 598-char remark

   Show marketing remark (598 chars)

   As you enter the home from the extended front porch, you're welcomed into the foyer, where two bedrooms sit at the front of the home and share a full bath. Continuing down the hall, you'll find an additional bedroom and a conveniently located laundry room nearby. The heart of the home opens into the kitchen, seamlessly connected to the family room and dining area, creating an inviting space for gathering. A back patio extends off the dining area, offering a spot to enjoy the outdoors. Just off the dining area, the primary bedroom features a spacious walk-in closet and a private primary bath.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,288 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,209 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,921/yr (+$243/mo · 226.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,089
• − Property taxes: −$1,288
• − Insurance: −$1,347
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,085
• − Management: −$2,085
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$7,836
• Taxable loss: −$4,425
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,062
• After-tax cash flow: $1,308/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waller

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1003
• US rank: #17792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,348
• Household income: $81,250
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 270.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
• Current HPI: 397.85
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $229,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-28 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $229,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Listed $282,290 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $254,990 Zillow