514 Mark Twain Dr · Orange Lake, NY 12586

$60,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 6 Days on market

Built 1976 Fair condition $800/mo HOA · 36% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits with this spacious fixer upper located at 514 Mark Twain Drive in Walden! Located on a private lot at the end of a quiet street within the desirable Valley Central School District, this spacious four bedroom, one and a half bath home is ready for its next owner to bring their vision and make it shine. Being sold as-is, this fixer-upper offers tremendous potential with a large, level backyard perfect for relaxing and BBQ's. The bright white kitchen features a large peninsula island, gas stove, microwave, newer refrigerator, abundant cabinetry, and plenty of counter space, along with a dining nook and sliders leading to the backyard. A formal dining room is currently being

Key facts

• Private lot
• Bright white kitchen
• Large level backyard

Tags

• PRIVATE LOT
• LARGE LEVEL BACKYARD
• BRIGHT WHITE KITCHEN
• LARGE PENINSULA ISLAND
• COZY WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• WALK IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Holiday Park association; Association fee $800 per month; Association fee covers common area maintenance and other items

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; 2 parking spaces; No carport
• Utilities: Shared sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Phone connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Double-wide manufactured home; Manufactured home property type; Single-story
• Construction: Slab foundation; Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Slab foundation; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One-level home layout (all bedrooms on same level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining room; Open kitchen; Primary bathroom; Master bedroom on main level; Walk-in closet(s); Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in hall

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $60k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $562 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 2.8% in Orange Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#972 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Valley Central School District (Montgomery) (rural): math 54% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #299 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: East Coldenham Elementary School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 295 students, 47% FRL); Valley Central Middle School (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #480 of 729 statewide, top 66%, 982 students, 41% FRL); Valley Central High School (math 95% / reading 87%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 1,346 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 25% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.

Recommended offer $60,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.18%
• DSCR: 2.79
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $26,628
• Equity at exit: $8,946

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.25×
• Total profit: $71,453
• Equity at exit: $5,188

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12586

• Home prices YoY: -15.6%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $900/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$800
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $562

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,538

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $604	-5% $583	+0% $562	+5% $542	+10% $521
Rent	-10% $385	-5% $474	+0% $562	+5% $651	+10% $740
Rate	-1.0pp $593	-0.5pp $578	base $562	+0.5pp $547	+1.0pp $531

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $800 · $9,600/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $60,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $60,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,994
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$900
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,160
• − Management: −$2,160
• − HOA: −$9,600
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $6,769
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,625
• After-tax cash flow: $5,125/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This fixer-upper offers significant potential with a spacious layout and a large backyard. It requires moderate renovations to bring it up to a good condition, focusing on kitchen and bathroom updates, exterior painting, and landscaping improvements.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen countertops — Worn appearance
• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor Bathroom walls — Discoloration
• Minor Exterior siding — Discoloration
• Minor Living room flooring — Worn appearance
• Minor Interior walls/paint — Chipped paint

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and updating kitchen cabinets — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both New flooring in living areas — Enhances interior aesthetics and value
• Both Painting interior walls — Enhances interior aesthetics and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen countertops · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Kitchen cabinets · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom walls · Discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior siding · Discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
Living room flooring · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Interior walls/paint · Chipped paint	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$3,000–18,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and updating kitchen cabinets — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both New flooring in living areas — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑
• Both Painting interior walls — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Central School District (Montgomery)
• NCES district ID: 3619680
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $69,186
• Composite: 47.53/100
• National rank: #2271
• State rank: #299 of 590 in NY

Livability — Orange Lake

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #972
• US rank: #18993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,874

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 9% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.44%
• Current HPI: 315.1034
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $60,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid