3231 Vineyard Ave Spc 14 · Pleasanton, CA 94566

$180,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 4 Days on market

Est $292k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +7.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS IS IT!RETIRE IN COMFORT.LOVELY UPDATED HOME.FENCED GARDEN AREA.BACKS TO PATHWAY. TILE KITCHEN.OAK BTHS.CHERRYWD FINISH CHINA.Newer kitchen appliances.Builtin bar w. sink. Large shed could be workshop.

Key facts

• Garage
• Community pool
• Listed 3 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed upon approval; Senior community; Community clubhouse, pool, and spa

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; Carport with awning; 1 covered parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Double wide
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Crawl space foundation; Built as manufactured/mobile home
• Exterior features: Patio; Shed(s); Close to clubhouse; Level, rectangular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range / cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Tile counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Laminate; Linoleum; Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with stall shower and tile; Additional bathroom(s) with shower over tub and tile; Updated baths
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Pantry; Updated kitchen; Dining area; Kitchen/family combo; Window coverings; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer; 220-volt outlet; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 1.3% in Pleasanton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#17 in CA, #655 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Pleasanton Unified (urban): math 75% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #43 of 1,400 in CA (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 152 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask is 84% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $96k; list at $180k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.29%
• DSCR: 2.57
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $292,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3231 Vineyard Ave Spc 93	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,413 (-2%)	3mo	$287,000	$203	92
3231 Vineyard Ave #76	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,431 (-1%)	2mo	$370,000	$259	90
3231 Vineyard Ave., #94 #94	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,340 (-7%)	0mo	$230,000	$172	88
3263 Vineyard Ave #178	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	8mo	$238,000	$165	80
3263 Vineyard Ave. #35 #35	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-5%)	3mo	$295,000	$216	80
3231 Vineyard Ave #132	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,250 (-13%)	7mo	$159,000	$127	72
3263 Vineyard Ave #89	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,250 (-13%)	3mo	$280,000	$224	70
3263 Vineyard #68	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-10%)	2mo	$275,000	$212	70
3263 Vineyard Ave #174	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+11%)	4mo	$315,000	$197	70
3263 Vineyard Ave #125	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,578 (+10%)	6mo	$310,000	$196	70
3263 Vineyard #132	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	5mo	$185,000	$148	66
3263 Vineyard Ave #42	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,590 (+10%)	9mo	$402,000	$253	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $76,168
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.67×
• Total profit: $235,610
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94566

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,451 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,700/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$725
• Net cashflow: $1,482

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,575

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
749 Palomino Dr Unit C Pleasanton, CA	2.0	1.5	1130	$3,250	$2.88	44d	1	0.58mi
835 Palomino Dr Unit 2 Pleasanton, CA	2.0	1.5	1080	$2,850	$2.64	20d	1	0.60mi
3819 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	863	$2,940	$3.40	2d	14	0.70mi
3847 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,700	$3.00	17d	1	0.74mi
242 Birch Creek Dr Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.5	1221	$3,100	$2.54	44d	1	0.75mi
223 Birch Creek Dr Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.5	1848	$4,800	$2.60	3d	1	0.80mi
3955 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	829	$3,436	$4.14	2d	5	0.86mi
4059 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$3,850	$2.96	24d	1	0.93mi
1539 Trimingham Dr Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	1369	$3,600	$2.63	2d	1	1.20mi
4678 Whiting St Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.0	1538	$5,500	$3.58	24d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $180,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $180,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $180,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   remarks 523-char remark
5. 2026-05-31
   listed $180,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,411
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,700
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,313
• − Management: −$3,313
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $15,866
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,808
• After-tax cash flow: $13,980/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pleasanton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600020
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $123,770
• Composite: 73.12/100
• National rank: #351
• State rank: #43 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pleasanton

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #655

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pleasanton, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 78,550
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,222
• Household income: $191,155
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1190.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Asian 38% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Russian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 33% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Chinese 10% Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -841.68%
• Current HPI: 308.8324
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.04%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Coming Soon $180,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2004-05-13 Sold (MLS) $95,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2004-04-16 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2004-03-25 Listed $98,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-07-10 Sold (MLS) $105,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-07-10 Sold (MLS) $105,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-06-04 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-05-06 Listed $108,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-05-06 Listed $108,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR