Celeste Plan · Ocala, FL 34482

$286,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,821 sqft · SingleFamily · 283 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-story home is a modern take on a classic design. Down the foyer is a spacious and open-plan family room which has direct access to the cozy dining room, well-equipped kitchen and attached patio, perfect for everyday living. In a private corner is the owner's suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom, while on the opposite side of the home are three secondary bedrooms to offer restful retreats.

Key facts

• Adjoining bathroom
• Owner's suite
• Single-story home

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• OPEN-PLAN FAMILY ROOM
• WELL-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• ATTACHED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ADJOINING BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $286,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $294,608.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $287k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-120 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.1% in Ocala — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: College Park Elementary School (math 46% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,437 of 2,144 statewide, top 68%, 840 students, 78% FRL); Liberty Middle School (math 40% / reading 41%, grade F, #360 of 571 statewide, top 64%, 1,365 students, 54% FRL); West Port High School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,906 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.1%/yr); 670 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 283 days — a 12% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $242,529 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 283 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.75%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,608
• List price: $286,990
• Delta: -2.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1457 NW 48th Ter	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,821 (0%)	1mo	$292,990	$161	88
1321 NW 48th Ter	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,821 (0%)	8mo	$295,000	$162	84
1283 NW 44th Court Rd	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,824 (+0%)	14mo	$309,390	$170	83
1385 NW 48th Ter	0.21mi	4/2.5	1,879 (+3%)	5mo	$272,000	$145	79
4684 NW 11th St	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,697 (-7%)	2mo	$260,000	$153	77
1177 NW 48th Ter	0.39mi	4/2.5	1,875 (+3%)	12mo	$284,035	$151	65
4493 NW 14th Loop	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,755 (-4%)	8mo	$320,000	$182	64
4433 NW 14th Loop	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,950 (+7%)	21mo	$343,089	$176	53
4465 NW 14th Loop	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,950 (+7%)	22mo	$315,000	$162	48
4494 NW 14th Loop	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,714 (-6%)	24mo	$290,000	$169	44
4507 NW 14th Loop	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,950 (+7%)	24mo	$305,000	$156	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-42,528
• Equity at exit: $43,927

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $11,612
• Equity at exit: $25,472

Cash invested: $82,490 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34482

• Rents YoY: 11.1%
• Active inventory: 670
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,425 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,545
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$368 /mo · $4,419/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $-120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,577

Max offer price $277,245

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $84	-5% $-18	+0% $-120	+5% $-222	+10% $-324
Rent	-10% $-312	-5% $-216	+0% $-120	+5% $-24	+10% $72
Rate	-1.0pp $28	-0.5pp $-45	base $-120	+0.5pp $-196	+1.0pp $-274

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,652
• Closing costs: $8,838
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1632 NW 44th Court Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	2039	$2,200	$1.08	23d	1	0.32mi
4522 NW 14th Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	2028	$2,050	$1.01	15d	1	0.45mi
4530 NW 14th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.5	1966	$2,250	$1.14	15d	1	0.46mi
1527 NW 57th Ct Unit 1 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,550	$1.06	23d	1	1.02mi
311 NW 60th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,900	$1.30	23d	1	1.39mi
5353 N US Highway 27 Ocala, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1169	$2,045	$1.75	23d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $286,990 Active 283 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $286,990 Active 280 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $286,990 Active 279 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $286,990 Active 278 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $286,990 Active 277 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $286,990 Active 275 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $286,990 Active 274 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $286,990 Active 272 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $286,990 Active 271 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $286,990 Active 270 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $286,990 Active 269 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $286,990 Active 265 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $286,990 Active 264 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $286,990 Active 262 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $286,990 Active 261 DOM
16. 2025-09-11
    listed $286,990 Active 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    This new single-story home is a modern take on a classic design. Down the foyer is a spacious and open-plan family room which has direct access to the cozy dining room, well-equipped kitchen and attached patio, perfect for everyday living. In a private corner is the owner's suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom, while on the opposite side of the home are three secondary bedrooms to offer restful retreats.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,103
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,503
• − Property taxes: −$4,419
• − Insurance: −$1,473
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,328
• − Management: −$2,328
• − Depreciation: −$8,570
• Taxable loss: −$6,518
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,564
• After-tax cash flow: $125/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It has a spacious layout and is ready for potential buyers or renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers.
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading appliances can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers.
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading fixtures can make the bathrooms more appealing to potential buyers.
• Both Flooring replacement — Replacing worn-out flooring can improve the overall appearance and functionality of the home.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading appliances can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading fixtures can make the bathrooms more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Flooring replacement — Replacing worn-out flooring can improve the overall appearance and functionality of the home. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ocala

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #8461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocala, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 263,375
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,807
• Household income: $65,901
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 282.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.62%
• Current HPI: 194.3857
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.12%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-11 Listed $286,990 Zillow