10610 Ashville Dr · Houston, TX 77051

$325,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 65 Days on market

Built 2026 $181/sqft · 56% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into a home that instantly feels right. This modern 3-bed, 2.5-bath beauty blends style and comfort with white oak SPC floors, a striking brick accent wall, and a cozy electric fireplace that sets the mood. The kitchen brings the wow factor with soft-close cabinets and waterfall quartz counters. Need space to focus? The private study is ready. Outside, unwind on the Trex patio or enjoy the fully sodded yard with gated entry. The oversized garage comes EV-ready with a full generator setup. Every detail is intentional—7' windows with hinged shutters, a freestanding soaking tub, walk-in closets in every room, an oversized primary closet, and even a conditioned Costco closet. Minutes from the upcoming Hill at Sims Park, you’ll soon have miles of trails, a hilltop pavilion, nature paths, and more right at your doorstep. Move-in ready and easy to love.

Key facts

• Soft-close cabinets
• Brick accent wall
• White oak spc floors

Tags

• WHITE OAK SPC FLOORS
• BRICK ACCENT WALL
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• SOFT-CLOSE CABINETS
• WATERFALL QUARTZ COUNTERS
• PRIVATE STUDY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-488 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (31.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Woodson School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 572 students, 99% FRL); Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 321 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,225/mo this rent would consume 71% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,500 (31.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.44%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,239
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: 56.07%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3623 Jipsie Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,617 (-10%)	2mo	$205,000	$127	68
11405 Galway Grove Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,836 (+2%)	0mo	$299,900	$163	68
11404 Lucky Falls Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,775 (-1%)	2mo	$329,760	$186	67
11408 Lucky Falls Dr	0.63mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,775 (-1%)	1mo	$367,999	$207	62
3327 Young Clover Way	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,731 (-4%)	1mo	$299,900	$173	60
11410 Waterford Spring Trl	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,731 (-4%)	1mo	$304,900	$176	59
10307 Sylvan Woods Trl	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,719 (-4%)	2mo	$319,990	$186	57
3609 Dawson Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,648 (-8%)	2mo	$200,000	$121	52
10307 Penryn Forest Trl	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,586 (-12%)	3mo	$304,990	$192	46
10309 Sylvan Woods Trl	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,017 (+12%)	3mo	$329,990	$164	44
11408 Waterford Spring Trl	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,556 (-14%)	1mo	$277,900	$179	43
10313 Lancaster Forest Ln	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,017 (+12%)	2mo	$329,990	$164	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $149,972
• Equity at exit: $292,786

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.22×
• Total profit: $474,958
• Equity at exit: $631,404

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,225 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$406 /mo · $4,875/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,843

Max offer price $254,349

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-264	-5% $-376	+0% $-488	+5% $-601	+10% $-713
Rent	-10% $-664	-5% $-576	+0% $-488	+5% $-400	+10% $-312
Rate	-1.0pp $-325	-0.5pp $-406	base $-488	+0.5pp $-572	+1.0pp $-658

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9606 Ashville Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,570	$0.98	45d	1	0.48mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Unit NA Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,400	$1.32	6d	1	0.58mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,450	$1.35	23d	1	0.58mi
3710 Rockingham St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1890	$1,700	$0.90	45d	1	0.68mi
10514 Wellesley Terrace Trl Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1843	$2,300	$1.25	19d	1	0.68mi
9610 Buffum St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1605	$1,799	$1.12	45d	1	0.80mi
10415 Lancaster Ln Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1937	$2,525	$1.30	22d	1	0.81mi
11819 Leitrim Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1476	$1,150	$0.78	7d	1	1.04mi
12320 Chesney Downs Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$3,500	$1.75	4d	1	1.09mi
3002 Crown Gate Dr Unit 1568481P Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2195	$3,345	$1.52	1d	1	1.12mi
2889 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,648	$1.65	4d	2	1.23mi
4510 Bungalow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$1,995	$0.95	45d	1	1.28mi
4538 Clover St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1768	$1,595	$0.90	45d	1	1.32mi
3013 Maughan Heights Trl Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2386	$5,000	$2.10	0d	1	1.39mi
4921a Pederson St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,150	$1.22	14d	1	1.47mi
12207 Duane Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,646	$1.06	1d	1	1.47mi
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	7d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $325,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $325,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $325,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $325,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-04-17
    listed $325,000 Active 875-char remark

    Show marketing remark (875 chars)

    Step into a home that instantly feels right. This modern 3-bed, 2.5-bath beauty blends style and comfort with white oak SPC floors, a striking brick accent wall, and a cozy electric fireplace that sets the mood. The kitchen brings the wow factor with soft-close cabinets and waterfall quartz counters. Need space to focus? The private study is ready. Outside, unwind on the Trex patio or enjoy the fully sodded yard with gated entry. The oversized garage comes EV-ready with a full generator setup. Every detail is intentional—7' windows with hinged shutters, a freestanding soaking tub, walk-in closets in every room, an oversized primary closet, and even a conditioned Costco closet. Minutes from the upcoming Hill at Sims Park, you’ll soon have miles of trails, a hilltop pavilion, nature paths, and more right at your doorstep. Move-in ready and easy to love.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,875
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,136
• − Management: −$2,136
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$11,732
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,816
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,043/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $325,000 HARMLS