6647 Quarters Rd · Lake Land'Or, VA 22580

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,809 sqft · Manufactured public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2003 1.01 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this fantastic 3 bed 2 bath home featuring a highly desirable split-bedroom floor plan for ultimate privacy. The inviting family room serves as the heart of the home, complete with recessed lighting and a cozy propane gas log fireplace with a beautiful stone surround. In the kitchen, you will find modern conveniences and a functional kitchen island—perfect for meal prep. The adjacent breakfast nook features a seamless walk-out to the back deck, making indoor-outdoor entertaining a breeze. Light pours into the spacious living room through a dramatic, large floor-to-ceiling window and skylight. The primary suite serves as a true retreat, boasting a full private bath equipped

Key facts

• 1.01 acre lot
• Built 2003
• Listed 5 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership

Exterior

• Parking: Circular driveway; Driveway
• Utilities: Well water; On-site septic
• Home design: Detached property; Outside city limits
• Construction: Permanent foundation; Building not winterized
• Exterior features: Outbuilding(s); Deck(s) and porch(es); Shed and other outbuildings; Circular driveway; Driveway access

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Electric heating and cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Not furnished; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $437 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $285k (5.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.6% in Lake Land'Or — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Caroline County Public School District (rural): math 39% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #95 of 131 in VA (top 72%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lewis And Clark Elementary (math 53% / reading 64%, grade B-, #576 of 1,108 statewide, top 52%, 890 students, 75% FRL); Caroline Middle (math 36% / reading 67%, grade C, #222 of 342 statewide, top 65%, 973 students, 75% FRL); Caroline High (math 46% / reading 76%, grade C+, #242 of 319 statewide, top 76%, 1,251 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 44% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 318 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Caroline County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $300k implies a 436% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 20% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $285,000 (5.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.25%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $191,062
• Equity at exit: $270,174

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.44×
• Total profit: $540,520
• Equity at exit: $582,640

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22580

• Home prices YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,400/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $437

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,297

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $607	-5% $522	+0% $437	+5% $352	+10% $267
Rent	-10% $212	-5% $325	+0% $437	+5% $550	+10% $662
Rate	-1.0pp $588	-0.5pp $513	base $437	+0.5pp $359	+1.0pp $280

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13115 Arcadia Rd Woodford, VA	3.0	2.0	1512	$2,850	$1.88	45d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,900 Coming Soon 5 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $299,900 Coming Soon 4 DOM
3. 2026-05-27
   historical $299,900
4. 2003-03-17
   soldstatus $56,000
5. 2003-03-14
   soldstatus $56,000
6. 2002-11-25
   historical
7. 2002-11-08
   listed $56,200
8. 1991-09-01
   soldstatus $42,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,400 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,459 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,059/yr (+$88/mo · 75.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$1,400
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,736
• − Management: −$2,736
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable income: $305
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$73
• After-tax cash flow: $5,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caroline County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100660
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,075
• Composite: 43.88/100
• National rank: #2920
• State rank: #95 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lake Land'Or

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,956

Population outlook (Caroline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,136 people
• By 2030: 32,973 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 34,255 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 34,843 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 35,134 · +9.3%
• By 2100: 32,184 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caroline

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.8) · D 45.1% · R 53.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: -8.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.8 2020: R+4.2 2016: R+5.1 2012: D+8.2 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.02%
• Current HPI: 384.3319
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+614.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Coming Soon $299,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-03-17 Sold (MLS) $56,000 MRIS
• 2003-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 2002-11-25 Delisted — MRIS
• 2002-11-08 Listed $56,200 MRIS
• 1991-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,400 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.