14509 Bonellis Pass · Elgin, TX 78621

$275,490

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,412 sqft · Land · 82 Days on market

Built 2025 4,599 sqft lot $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

You enter through the covered porch into the foyer and travel down the hall, where a powder bath is conveniently located. As you step into the family room, the stairs leading to the second floor come into view. The open layout flows into the kitchen, which features a pantry, additional storage space, and access to the two-car garage. Upstairs, the primary bedroom includes a walk-in closet and a spacious primary bath. The laundry room is located right at the top of the stairs for easy access. Two additional bedrooms, each with its own walk-in closet, share a full bath.

Key facts

• 4,599 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-112 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 813 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $197,644 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.75%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $143,003
• Equity at exit: $248,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.54×
• Total profit: $427,019
• Equity at exit: $535,216

Cash invested: $77,137 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 813
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,976 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,445
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $952/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,119

Max offer price $255,621

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $43	-5% $-34	+0% $-112	+5% $-190	+10% $-268
Rent	-10% $-269	-5% $-191	+0% $-112	+5% $-34	+10% $44
Rate	-1.0pp $26	-0.5pp $-42	base $-112	+0.5pp $-184	+1.0pp $-256

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,872
• Closing costs: $8,265
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	12d	1	0.03mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	25d	1	0.07mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	44d	1	0.07mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	4d	1	0.08mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	44d	1	0.14mi
18316 Stellers Sea St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	20d	1	0.17mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	25d	1	0.25mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,825	$1.20	5d	1	0.27mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	5d	1	0.32mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	25d	1	0.32mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	18d	1	0.33mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,885	$1.05	5d	1	0.35mi
14421 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,650	$1.08	3d	1	0.40mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	2d	1	0.48mi
234 Heritage Mill Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,850	$1.21	3d	1	0.55mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,775	$1.15	20d	1	0.56mi
116 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	5d	1	0.69mi
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,150	$1.21	2d	1	0.73mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	44d	1	0.83mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,890	$2.02	2d	6	0.95mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	15d	1	0.99mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	44d	1	1.12mi
419 Gettysburg Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,850	$1.18	13d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-28
   status Active
3. 2026-01-28
   price $275,490
4. 2025-12-01
   listed $268,265
5. 2025-12-01
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $952 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,041 · $420/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,089/yr (+$341/mo · 429.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,717
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,432
• − Property taxes: −$952
• − Insurance: −$1,377
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,897
• − Management: −$1,897
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$8,014
• Taxable loss: −$6,273
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,506
• After-tax cash flow: $156/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-28 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $275,490 Unlock MLS
• 2025-12-01 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $268,265 Unlock MLS