539 W Nelson Ave · Aransas Pass, TX 78336

$134,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily · 67 Days on market

Built 1940 Fair condition 5,000 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom, 1 bath home on a corner lot on the south side of Aransas Pass. Well cared for and ready for its next owner. Features an open kitchen and living area, dedicated indoor laundry, and plenty of room to make it your own.

Key facts

• Corner lot
• Open kitchen
• 5,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPEN KITCHEN
• DEDICATED INDOOR LAUNDRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $134k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $472 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $134k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 4.6% in Aransas Pass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#253 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Gregory-Portland ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #314 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 275 active listings in the ZIP; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $926 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,960 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.08%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $8,351
• Equity at exit: $19,980

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $46,059
• Equity at exit: $11,586

Cash invested: $37,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78336

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,769 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$703
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$168 /mo · $2,010/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $472

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,172

Max offer price $134,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $564	-5% $518	+0% $472	+5% $425	+10% $379
Rent	-10% $332	-5% $402	+0% $472	+5% $542	+10% $611
Rate	-1.0pp $539	-0.5pp $506	base $472	+0.5pp $437	+1.0pp $402

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,500
• Closing costs: $4,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $134,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $139,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $144,000 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $144,000 226-char remark

    Show marketing remark (226 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1 bath home on a corner lot on the south side of Aransas Pass. Well cared for and ready for its next owner. Features an open kitchen and living area, dedicated indoor laundry, and plenty of room to make it your own.

17. 2026-05-04
    price $149,000 226-char remark

    Show marketing remark (226 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1 bath home on a corner lot on the south side of Aransas Pass. Well cared for and ready for its next owner. Features an open kitchen and living area, dedicated indoor laundry, and plenty of room to make it your own.

18. 2026-04-12
    listed $159,000 Active 226-char remark

    Show marketing remark (226 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1 bath home on a corner lot on the south side of Aransas Pass. Well cared for and ready for its next owner. Features an open kitchen and living area, dedicated indoor laundry, and plenty of room to make it your own.

19. 2011-11-09
    listed $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 61% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,230
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,506
• − Property taxes: −$2,010
• − Insurance: −$670
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,698
• − Management: −$1,698
• − Depreciation: −$3,898
• Taxable income: $3,749
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$900
• After-tax cash flow: $4,760/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate renovations to modernize the kitchen and bathrooms, improve the exterior, and upgrade the HVAC system. These updates will significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate kitchen countertops — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate kitchen appliances — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — basic and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom flooring — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate exterior siding — weathered and in need of repainting
• Moderate exterior foundation — basic and in need of sealing

Value-add opportunities

• Both new kitchen cabinets, countertops, and appliances — modernizes the kitchen and improves functionality
• Both new bathroom fixtures and flooring — modernizes the bathroom and improves functionality
• Both new exterior siding and paint — enhances curb appeal and improves home value
• Both HVAC system upgrade — improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen countertops · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen appliances · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · basic and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom flooring · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
exterior siding · weathered and in need of repainting	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
exterior foundation · basic and in need of sealing	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$21,000–105,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both new kitchen cabinets, countertops, and appliances — modernizes the kitchen and improves functionality ↑
• Both new bathroom fixtures and flooring — modernizes the bathroom and improves functionality ↑
• Both new exterior siding and paint — enhances curb appeal and improves home value ↑
• Both HVAC system upgrade — improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gregory-Portland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821780
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $59,135
• Composite: 36.62/100
• National rank: #4622
• State rank: #314 of 826 in TX

Livability — Aransas Pass

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #253
• US rank: #5980

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,146

Population outlook (San Patricio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,538 people
• By 2030: 79,575 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 87,670 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 96,107 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 117,984 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 130,010 · +72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 21% Asian 2% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Patricio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.4% · R 67.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.6pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+16.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.56%
• Current HPI: 187.8443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+121.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $144,000 CBMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $149,000 CBMLS
• 2026-04-12 Listed $159,000 CBMLS
• 2011-11-09 Listed $65,000 CBMLS