200 Periwinkle Way #214 · Sanibel, FL 33957

$624,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,550 sqft · Condo public records · 204 Days on market

Built 1977 $1422/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FOR STATISTICS ONLY

Key facts

• Private beach access
• $1,422 HOA
• Parking

Tags

• VIEWS OF SAN CARLOS BAY
• IMPACT RATED WINDOWS AND DOORS
• RECENTLY REPLACED HVAC SYSTEM
• FULLY FURNISHED AND STOCKED
• PRIVATE BEACH ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed with conditions (maximum weight ~35 lbs)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee (includes cable TV); Community amenities: beach rights and access, clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, management; 69 units in the community; Condo-hotel community with elevator; near hotel/motel

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Guest parking; One assigned space
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Condo unit in a 3-story building; Entry level: 2; Resale property; Faces east (primary facing direction); Has a view
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Built-up and flat roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Open porch; Community pool; Bay front waterfront; West exposure; Public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Sliding and impact glass windows; Furnished; Breakfast bar; Dual sinks; Separate shower (no tub); Cable TV
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $624k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($100k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($18k rent vs $624k).
• Recommended offer: $549k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.2% vs local median 3.8% in Sanibel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#541 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 526 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $175k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($549k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $96k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $549,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.42%
• DSCR: 3.69
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $433,314
• Equity at exit: $93,040

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.12×
• Total profit: $1,069,137
• Equity at exit: $53,952

Cash invested: $174,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33957

• Home prices YoY: -15.7%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $18,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,272
• Tax from tax record: −$627 /mo · $7,521/yr
• Insurance: −$260
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$1,422
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,822
• Net cashflow: $8,370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,605

Max offer price $624,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $8,724	-5% $8,547	+0% $8,370	+5% $8,194	+10% $8,017
Rent	-10% $6,933	-5% $7,651	+0% $8,370	+5% $9,089	+10% $9,808
Rate	-1.0pp $8,685	-0.5pp $8,529	base $8,370	+0.5pp $8,209	+1.0pp $8,044

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $156,000
• Closing costs: $18,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
424 Lagoon Dr Sanibel, FL	3.0	2.0	1704	$18,200	$10.68	24d	1	0.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,422 · $17,064/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $624,000 Active 204 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $624,000 Active 203 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $634,000 Active 202 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $634,000 Active 200 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $634,000 Active 196 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $634,000 Active 194 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $634,000 Active 189 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $634,000 Active 188 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $634,000 Active 187 DOM
10. 2026-05-18
    price $634,000
11. 2026-04-25
    price $639,000
12. 2026-03-30
    price $649,000
13. 2026-03-21
    price $659,000
14. 2026-03-11
    price $669,000
15. 2026-03-01
    price $689,000
16. 2026-02-11
    price $699,000
17. 2025-11-25
    listed $720,000 Active
18. 2021-11-02
    historical 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    FOR STATISTICS ONLY

19. 2021-10-29
    soldstatus $786,000 Closed 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    FOR STATISTICS ONLY

20. 2021-10-29
    soldstatus $786,000

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    FOR STATISTICS ONLY

21. 2021-09-10
    listed $759,000 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    FOR STATISTICS ONLY

22. 1992-06-01
    soldstatus $275,000
23. 1985-07-01
    soldstatus $126,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,521 · $627/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,521 · $627/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $218,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,954
• − Property taxes: −$7,521
• − Insurance: −$8,238
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$17,472
• − Management: −$17,472
• − HOA: −$17,064
• − Depreciation: −$18,153
• Taxable income: $97,526
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$23,406
• After-tax cash flow: $77,038/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sanibel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #541
• US rank: #10166

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sanibel, FL
• City population: 6,402
• Population (ZIP): 6,402

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.08%
• Current HPI: 501.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+403.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $634,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $639,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $649,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $659,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $669,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $689,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $699,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-11-25 Listed $720,000 FORTMLS
• 2021-11-02 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2021-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $786,000 Public Records
• 2021-10-29 Sold (MLS) $786,000 FORTMLS
• 2021-09-10 Listed $759,000 FORTMLS
• 1992-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records
• 1985-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $126,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,521 · +724.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.