48300 Hwy 51 Hwy · Natalbany, LA 70466

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1978 1.00 ac lot $92/sqft · 35% below area Est $200k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 48300 Highway 51 in Tickfaw — a well-kept 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering comfort, practicality, and a peaceful setting to enjoy every day. Inside, you’ll find vinyl flooring throughout with no carpet, making for easy maintenance and a clean, cohesive look from room to room. The layout offers a comfortable flow for everyday living, while the spacious back porch creates the perfect spot to relax, entertain, or simply enjoy the quiet backyard setting. With a generous outdoor feel and convenient access to shopping, dining, and daily necessities, this property offers the balance of privacy and convenience so many buyers are looking for.

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• Spacious back porch
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• VINYL FLOORING
• SPACIOUS BACK PORCH
• QUIET BACKYARD SETTING
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $105 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.5% in Natalbany — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#208 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Tangipahoa Parish (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #63 of 98 in LA (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,085 units permitted in Tangipahoa Parish in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Tangipahoa County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,000 (9.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.73%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,476
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -22.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $30,631
• Equity at exit: $75,340

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $93,289
• Equity at exit: $120,702

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70466

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $688/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,267

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $193	-5% $149	+0% $105	+5% $61	+10% $17
Rent	-10% $-6	-5% $49	+0% $105	+5% $160	+10% $215
Rate	-1.0pp $183	-0.5pp $144	base $105	+0.5pp $65	+1.0pp $24

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
112 Mallard Dr Hammond, LA	3.0	1.0	1133	$1,400	$1.24	44d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $155,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 65 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 64 DOM
18. 2026-03-27
    listed $155,000 Active 663-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Welcome to 48300 Highway 51 in Tickfaw -- a well-kept 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering comfort, practicality, and a peaceful setting to enjoy every day. Inside, you'll find vinyl flooring throughout with no carpet, making for easy maintenance and a clean, cohesive look from room to room. The layout offers a comfortable flow for everyday living, while the spacious back porch creates the perfect spot to relax, entertain, or simply enjoy the quiet backyard setting. With a generous outdoor feel and convenient access to shopping, dining, and daily necessities, this property offers the balance of privacy and convenience so many buyers are looking for.

19. 2026-03-27
    listed $155,000 Active 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Welcome to 48300 Highway 51 in Tickfaw -- a well-kept 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering comfort, practicality, and a peaceful setting to enjoy every day. Inside, you'll find vinyl flooring throughout with no carpet, making for easy maintenance and a clean, cohesive look from room to room. The layout offers a comfortable flow for everyday living, while the spacious back porch creates the perfect spot to relax, entertain, or simply enjoy the quiet backyard setting. With a generous outdoor feel and convenient access to shopping, dining, and daily necessities, this property offers the balance of privacy and convenience so many buyers are looking for.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $688 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $852 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$165/yr (+$14/mo · 23.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$688
• − Insurance: −$1,572
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$1,340
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$322
• After-tax cash flow: $1,579/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tangipahoa Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201680
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $41,283
• Composite: 19.94/100
• National rank: #8676
• State rank: #63 of 98 in LA

Livability — Natalbany

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #16184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Natalbany, LA
• City population: 73
• Population (ZIP): 9,815

Population outlook (Tangipahoa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,204 people
• By 2030: 151,413 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 164,374 · +14.0%
• By 2050: 175,427 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 195,165 · +35.3%
• By 2100: 201,641 · +39.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Serbian 2% Scandinavian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Tangipahoa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.6% · R 68.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -30.9pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+32.6 2012: R+27.7 2008: R+30.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.64%
• Current HPI: 126.0016
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $155,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $155,000 GSREIN

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $688 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.