5497 Tucker Cir · Pace, FL 32571

$300,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,337 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 244 Days on market

Built 2007 0.43 ac lot Est $400k · 25% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Short Sale, ask for details. Huge Backyard! Solar Loan is only $218 a month! Power usage is less than $40 a month for entire house! The highest bill in over 2 years was only $45. At the end of the year FPL buys back the extra energy wholesale so you get roughly $100$ back! Walking Distance to BENNY RUSSELL PARK! Brand New Walmart just down the street. All New Flooring! Brand New Subway Tile Kitchen backsplash! Top Notch School District: Dixon Elementary, Sims Middle and Pace High. 4 bedrooms, vaulted ceilings, oversized kitchen with breakfast bar, separate dining room plus separate breakfast nook and split bedroom floorplan! Master en-suite features a garden tub with TV and walk-in show

Key facts

• No carpet whatsoever
• All new flooring
• Double gate

Tags

• HUGE BACKYARD
• ALL NEW FLOORING
• NO CARPET WHATSOEVER
• COMPLETE PRIVACY FENCE
• DOUBLE GATE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $150

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; Two total covered parking spaces; Front-entry driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Circuit breakers and copper wiring; Cable available; Underground utilities; Paved, county-maintained road access
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Not attached to another property; Homestead exempt; Shingle hip roof
• Construction: Brick and frame construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Privacy backyard fencing; Interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Updated kitchen (renovated within 1–5 years); New ceramic tile backsplash; Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 17' x 13'); Bedroom 1 on the first floor (approx. 13' x 12'); Bedroom 2 on the first floor (approx. 14' x 10'); Bedroom 3 on the first floor (approx. 13' x 11')
• Flooring: Simulated wood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Baseboards; Ceiling fans; Crown molding; High ceilings; Vaulted ceiling; Plant ledges; High-speed internet available; Double-pane windows with blinds; Simulated wood flooring
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookups; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-523/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.4% in Pace — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#475 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pea Ridge Elementary School (math 57% / reading 55%, grade C+, #832 of 2,144 statewide, top 40%, 837 students, 60% FRL); Thomas L Sims Middle School (math 77% / reading 65%, grade A, #59 of 571 statewide, top 11%, 1,098 students, 34% FRL); Pace High School (math 63% / reading 62%, grade B-, #93 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,240 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 244 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,273 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 244 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.33%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $399,627
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4249 Winners Gait Cir	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,357 (+1%)	5mo	$335,000	$142	82
5641 Gold Cup Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,357 (+1%)	12mo	$375,000	$159	69
5606 Prairie Meadows Ct	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,548 (+9%)	6mo	$455,000	$179	60
4356 Winners Gait Cir	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,553 (+9%)	9mo	$415,000	$163	58
4527 Jude Way	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,132 (-9%)	0mo	$377,500	$177	56
5552 Mill Race Cir	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,554 (+9%)	2mo	$480,000	$188	50
5685 Derby Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,154 (-8%)	11mo	$346,000	$161	50
4441 Jude Way	0.43mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,047 (-12%)	4mo	$350,000	$171	49
5568 Caden Ct	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,117 (-9%)	11mo	$390,000	$184	48
5587 Mill Race Cir	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,497 (+7%)	6mo	$510,000	$204	46
4097 Heart Pine Ln	0.54mi	4/2.0	2,047 (-12%)	9mo	$339,990	$166	46
4036 Millwright Way	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,513 (+8%)	12mo	$400,000	$159	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-52,087
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-51,778
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32571

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,503 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$243 /mo · $2,917/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $-44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,558

Max offer price $292,300

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $126	-5% $41	+0% $-44	+5% $-129	+10% $-213
Rent	-10% $-241	-5% $-142	+0% $-44	+5% $55	+10% $154
Rate	-1.0pp $107	-0.5pp $33	base $-44	+0.5pp $-121	+1.0pp $-200

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5857 Danbury Blvd Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1658	$2,145	$1.29	16d	1	0.52mi
5768 Conley Ct Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	2017	$2,100	$1.04	16d	1	0.54mi
5849 Danbury Blvd Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1736	$2,100	$1.21	25d	1	0.55mi
4283 Lancaster Gate Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	2360	$3,800	$1.61	25d	1	1.20mi
3927 Tuscany Way Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,075	$1.12	25d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $300,000 Active 244 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Active 241 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 240 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Active 239 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 238 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $300,000 Active 236 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $300,000 Active 233 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 232 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 231 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $300,000 Active 230 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $300,000 Active 227 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $300,000 Active 226 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $300,000 Active 225 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,000 Active 224 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 223 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 222 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    status Active
18. 2026-04-21
    historical Contingent
19. 2025-12-09
    status Active
20. 2025-11-26
    historical
21. 2025-11-25
    price $300,000
22. 2025-10-06
    listed $325,000 Active
23. 2024-11-13
    historical
24. 2024-10-19
    price $325,000
25. 2024-10-02
    price $335,000
26. 2024-09-19
    price $369,900
27. 2024-09-11
    price $379,900
28. 2024-06-26
    listed $385,000 Active
29. 2024-03-13
    historical
30. 2024-01-29
    price $359,000
31. 2024-01-07
    price $364,000
32. 2023-11-16
    price $365,000
33. 2023-10-16
    listed $390,000 Active
34. 2022-01-28
    status Pending
35. 2022-01-27
    soldstatus $325,000
36. 2022-01-26
    soldstatus $325,000 Sold
37. 2021-12-11
    historical Contingent
38. 2021-11-22
    listed $330,000 Active
39. 2021-09-23
    historical
40. 2021-09-15
    listed $330,000 Active
41. 2007-12-07
    soldstatus $205,246
42. 2007-06-06
    listed $205,246
43. 2007-04-30
    soldstatus $1,200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,917 · $243/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,917 · $243/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,033
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$2,917
• − Insurance: −$2,298
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,403
• − Management: −$2,403
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$5,675
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,362
• After-tax cash flow: $839/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pace

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #475
• US rank: #8593

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pace, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,171
• Household income: $87,617
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.39%
• Current HPI: 290.2953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.72%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-75.0% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2025-12-09 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2025-11-26 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $300,000 PARMLS
• 2025-10-06 Listed $325,000 PARMLS
• 2024-11-13 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2024-10-19 Price Changed $325,000 PARMLS
• 2024-10-02 Price Changed $335,000 PARMLS
• 2024-09-19 Price Changed $369,900 PARMLS
• 2024-09-11 Price Changed $379,900 PARMLS
• 2024-06-26 Listed $385,000 PARMLS
• 2024-03-13 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2024-01-29 Price Changed $359,000 PARMLS
• 2024-01-07 Price Changed $364,000 PARMLS
• 2023-11-16 Price Changed $365,000 PARMLS
• 2023-10-16 Listed $390,000 PARMLS
• 2022-01-28 Pending — PARMLS
• 2022-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $325,000 Public Records
• 2022-01-26 Sold (MLS) $325,000 PARMLS
• 2021-12-11 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2021-11-22 Listed $330,000 PARMLS
• 2021-09-23 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2021-09-15 Listed $330,000 PARMLS
• 2007-12-07 Sold (MLS) $205,246 PARMLS
• 2007-06-06 Listed $205,246 PARMLS
• 2007-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $1,200,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,917 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.