2502 Ciderwood Dr · Spring, TX 77373

$194,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,966 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1975 7,400 sqft lot Est $258k · 24% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE REDUCED $15,000!TWO STORY HOUSE. CORNER LOT WITH DOUBLE DETACHED GARAGE. HAS BEEN UPDATED. FOUR BED ROOMS, TWO & 1/2 BATHS WITH GRANITE. FIREPLACE IN FAMILY AREA. FORMAL DINNING, BREAKFAST ROOM. ALL BEDROOMS UP STAIRS. BEAUTIFUL NEW TITLE IN SHOWER IN MASTER BATH AND ALSO SAME TITLE IN DOWNSTAIRS SHOWER. GRANITE ON COUNTER TOPS IN MASTER BATH. NEW PAINT, NEW CARPET. NEW CENTRAL AIR AND CENTRAL HEAT NEW. GRANITE ON KITCHEN COUNTER TOPS, LOTS OF CABINETS, NEW APPLIANCES.

Key facts

• 7,400 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1975

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Timber Lane HOA with $350 annual fee covering recreation facilities; Curbs in community

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1975; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and cement siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Second level); Bedroom (Second level); Bedroom (Second level); Bedroom (Second level); Den (First level); Dining room (First level); Total rooms: 7
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Gas); Central air conditioning (Electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Granite counters; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $44 ($534/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pearl M Hirsch El (math 15% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,470 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 647 students, 86% FRL); Twin Creeks Middle (math 23% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 973 students, 83% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 599 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $195k implies a 225% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.98%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $257,546
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22811 Briarcreek Blvd	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,960 (-0%)	21mo	$285,000	$145	62
22807 Canyon Lake Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,749 (-11%)	10mo	$229,900	$131	57
2526 Anzalone Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,748 (-11%)	22mo	$255,000	$146	56
23029 Apple Arbor Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,776 (-10%)	14mo	$229,000	$129	51
22830 Earlmist Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,708 (-13%)	15mo	$239,990	$141	50
3023 Cypress Island Dr Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5	1,854 (-6%)	16mo	$215,000	$116	43
2819 Cypress Island Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5	1,794 (-9%)	18mo	$225,000	$125	39
22815 Tree House Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,764 (-10%)	10mo	$180,000	$102	37
21927 Siberian Elm Ln	0.72mi	4/2.5	1,794 (-9%)	22mo	$235,000	$131	34
1906 Naplechase Crest Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,739 (-12%)	19mo	$255,000	$147	32
2807 Cypress Island Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,240 (+14%)	17mo	$245,000	$109	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-34,760
• Equity at exit: $29,060

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-49,812
• Equity at exit: $16,851

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 599
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,122 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax from tax record: −$500 /mo · $5,995/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,066

Max offer price $194,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $155	-5% $100	+0% $44	+5% $-11	+10% $-66
Rent	-10% $-123	-5% $-39	+0% $44	+5% $128	+10% $212
Rate	-1.0pp $143	-0.5pp $94	base $44	+0.5pp $-6	+1.0pp $-57

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2911 Cypress Island Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2240	$1,961	$0.88	0d	1	0.70mi
2802 Mesquite Ridge Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1902	$2,045	$1.08	14d	1	0.87mi
21631 S Werrington Way Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1645	$1,900	$1.16	45d	1	1.09mi
2427 Gianna Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1777	$1,826	$1.03	8d	1	1.20mi
21602 Skyla Cir Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2291	$2,006	$0.88	0d	1	1.30mi
21407 Palma Grove Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,000	$0.71	14d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $194,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 383-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $194,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,995 · $500/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,995 · $500/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,464
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$5,995
• − Insurance: −$974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,037
• − Management: −$2,037
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable loss: −$2,515
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$604
• After-tax cash flow: $1,137/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+225.4% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $194,900 HARMLS
• 2014-09-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-08-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-07-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-07-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-06-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-06-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2014-06-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-05-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2014-05-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-05-12 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2014-05-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-04-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-04-25 Listed $124,900 HARMLS
• 2014-04-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-04-18 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2014-04-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-04-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2014-03-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-03-08 Price Changed $124,900 HARMLS
• 2014-01-30 Price Changed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2013-09-16 Listed $140,000 HARMLS
• 1994-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,995 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.