609 Rancheria · Chico, CA 95926

$1,285,000

15 bd · 10.0 ba · 6,800 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 202 Days on market

Built 1968 9,148 sqft lot $189/sqft · 10% above area Est $1404k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 5 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

Exceptional investment opportunity near CSUC. This well-maintained 5-unit complex features spacious 3-bed/2-bath floor plans, each with full-sized washer/dryer. Kitchens have updated cabinets, countertops, and newer appliances including stoves and refrigerators. Large upstairs bedrooms with dual closets add to tenant appeal. Major upgrades include dual-pane windows (2007), new roof (2013), upgraded blinds (2017), and newer water heaters. Fully leased through June 2026, offering stable income in a high-demand location. Seller may consider financing with acceptable terms.

Key facts

• Updated cabinets
• Dual-pane windows
• Dual closets

Tags

• 5-UNIT COMPLEX
• FULL-SIZED WASHER DRYER
• UPDATED CABINETS
• NEW APPLIANCES
• DUAL CLOSETS
• DUAL-PANE WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.28M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-740 ($-9k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-148/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.15M (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $924k (28.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $924k (28.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.6% in Chico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#195 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Chico Unified (urban): math 40% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #117 of 517 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rosedale Elementary (543 students, 53% FRL); Chico Junior High (928 students, 63% FRL); Chico High (math 39% / reading 78%, grade C, #223 of 1,170 statewide, top 19%, 1,905 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 92 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $9,239/mo this rent would consume 179% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 3912% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $39k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 202 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.13M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $660k; list at $1.28M implies a 95% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $923,900 (28.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 202 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.47%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,403,856
• List price: $1,285,000
• Delta: -8.47%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-246,543
• Equity at exit: $191,598

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-238,411
• Equity at exit: $111,103

Cash invested: $359,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95926

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 58.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,239 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,739
• Tax from tax record: −$765 /mo · $9,178/yr
• Insurance: −$535
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,940
• Net cashflow: $-740

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,176

Max offer price $1,154,254

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-13	-5% $-376	+0% $-740	+5% $-1,104	+10% $-1,468
Rent	-10% $-1,470	-5% $-1,105	+0% $-740	+5% $-375	+10% $-10
Rate	-1.0pp $-93	-0.5pp $-413	base $-740	+0.5pp $-1,073	+1.0pp $-1,412

5-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 5× units	3	2	$9,240
Total (5 units)			$9,239

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $321,250
• Closing costs: $38,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,285,000 Active 202 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $1,285,000 Active 200 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,285,000 Active 199 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,285,000 Active 198 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,285,000 Active 197 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,285,000 Active 196 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $1,285,000 Active 194 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,285,000 Active 193 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1,285,000 Active 191 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $1,285,000 Active 189 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,285,000 Active 188 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $1,285,000 Active 185 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,285,000 Active 183 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,285,000 Active 182 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,285,000 Active 181 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $1,285,000 Active 180 DOM
17. 2025-12-01
    listed $1,285,000 Active 576-char remark

    Show marketing remark (576 chars)

    Exceptional investment opportunity near CSUC. This well-maintained 5-unit complex features spacious 3-bed/2-bath floor plans, each with full-sized washer/dryer. Kitchens have updated cabinets, countertops, and newer appliances including stoves and refrigerators. Large upstairs bedrooms with dual closets add to tenant appeal. Major upgrades include dual-pane windows (2007), new roof (2013), upgraded blinds (2017), and newer water heaters. Fully leased through June 2026, offering stable income in a high-demand location. Seller may consider financing with acceptable terms.

18. 2025-11-25
    historical
19. 2025-09-23
    listed $1,285,000 Active
20. 2025-07-30
    historical
21. 2025-03-21
    listed $1,395,000 Active
22. 2024-12-06
    historical
23. 2024-08-30
    price $1,395,000
24. 2024-06-25
    price $1,495,000
25. 2024-03-15
    listed $1,595,000 Active
26. 2020-12-17
    historical
27. 2020-07-01
    listed $1,183,000 Active
28. 2018-11-15
    historical
29. 2018-11-15
    historical
30. 2018-10-23
    price $1,150,000
31. 2018-09-14
    listed $1,200,000 Active
32. 2018-09-14
    listed $1,150,000
33. 2014-11-14
    historical
34. 2014-11-14
    soldstatus $660,000 Closed Sale
35. 2014-11-14
    soldstatus $660,000
36. 2014-11-10
    status Pending Sale
37. 2014-11-03
    status Active
38. 2014-10-17
    status Pending Sale
39. 2014-08-27
    listed $730,000 Active
40. 2014-08-27
    historical
41. 2014-08-26
    listed $730,000 Active
42. 2004-05-21
    soldstatus $500,000
43. 1999-05-06
    soldstatus $43,000
44. 1995-04-26
    soldstatus $250,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,178 · $765/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,766 · $814/mo
• Expected delta: +$588/yr (+$49/mo · 6.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $110,868
• − Mortgage interest: −$71,980
• − Property taxes: −$9,178
• − Insurance: −$6,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,869
• − Management: −$8,869
• − Depreciation: −$37,382
• Taxable loss: −$31,836
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,641
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,241/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chico Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608370
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 14.00%
• Median HH income: $46,223
• Composite: 46.45/100
• National rank: #2443
• State rank: #117 of 517 in CA

Livability — Chico

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #6332

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing B Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chico, CA
• County: Butte County · 175,030 people
• City population: 117,007
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 40,567
• Household income: $61,920
• Rent vs Own: 59.5% rent · 40.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 3912.0

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 13% Asian 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -453.39%
• Current HPI: 256.0261
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.98%
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+414.0% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-01 Listed $1,285,000 CRMLS
• 2025-11-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-09-23 Listed $1,285,000 CRMLS
• 2025-07-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-03-21 Listed $1,395,000 CRMLS
• 2024-12-06 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-08-30 Price Changed $1,395,000 CRMLS
• 2024-06-25 Price Changed $1,495,000 CRMLS
• 2024-03-15 Listed $1,595,000 CRMLS
• 2020-12-17 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2020-07-01 Listed $1,183,000 CRMLS
• 2018-11-15 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2018-11-15 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2018-10-23 Price Changed $1,150,000 CRMLS
• 2018-09-14 Listed $1,150,000 SDMLS
• 2018-09-14 Listed $1,200,000 CRMLS
• 2014-11-14 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2014-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $660,000 Public Records
• 2014-11-14 Sold (MLS) $660,000 CRMLS
• 2014-11-10 Pending — CRMLS
• 2014-11-03 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2014-10-17 Pending — CRMLS
• 2014-08-27 Listed $730,000 CRMLS
• 2014-08-27 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2014-08-26 Listed $730,000 CRMLS
• 2004-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $500,000 Public Records
• 1999-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records
• 1995-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,178 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.