107 N Pinecrest Rd · Payson, AZ 85541

$140,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1989 6,098 sqft lot Est $261k · 46% under $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits in Woodland Meadows! This 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home is full of potential and ready for your personal touch. Situated in a desirable Payson neighborhood, this fixer-upper offers a functional floor plan, covered carport, and low-maintenance landscaping with mature trees for added shade and privacy. Inside, you'll find spacious living and dining areas with plenty of room to reimagine and make your own. Being sold AS-IS, this property is ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build sweat equity in a great location close to shopping, dining, and all the amenities Payson has to offer. Bring your vision and unlock the possibilities! CASH BUYERS ONLY!

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Great location
• Mature trees

Tags

• COVERED CARPORT
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING
• MATURE TREES
• GREAT LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association with $175 annual fee (includes other items — see remarks); Community access to a lake

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: Propane; Public sewer; City water
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Fee simple ownership; Fixer condition; Asphalt road access
• Construction: Wood siding and wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Storage; Wood fencing; Natural desert front and back; City-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Vaulted ceilings; Primary bedroom with 3/4 bath; Dual-pane windows; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $554 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 3.3% in Payson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#44 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, crime B, cost of living B; Watch: amenities D-, commute F, health & safety F.
• Payson Unified District (4209) (town): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #138 of 249 in AZ (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Julia Randall Elementary School (math 20% / reading 36%, grade F, #586 of 1,109 statewide, top 53%, 576 students, 58% FRL); Rim Country Middle School (math 21% / reading 31%, grade F, #100 of 218 statewide, top 47%, 493 students, 53% FRL); Payson High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #141 of 381 statewide, top 38%, 790 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 706 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.95%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $260,832
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
107 N Pinecrest Rd	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,144 (0%)	0mo	$140,000	$122	100
1106 W Crestview Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+1%)	2mo	$275,000	$239	89
105 S Lakeshore Rd	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+1%)	21mo	$250,000	$217	77
100 N Foothill Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,154 (+1%)	19mo	$295,000	$256	77
1215 W Birchwood Rd	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+9%)	1mo	$259,000	$208	72
1109 W Birchwood Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+5%)	8mo	$288,000	$240	69
116 S Pinecrest Rd	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+9%)	14mo	$285,000	$228	67
107 Spring Rd	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+5%)	21mo	$302,440	$252	66
701 E Wade Ln	0.73mi	2/1.0	1,160 (+1%)	13mo	$95,000	$82	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $12,572
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $56,325
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85541

• Home prices YoY: -6.6%
• Active inventory: 706
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,851 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,214/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $554

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,150

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $633	-5% $593	+0% $554	+5% $514	+10% $474
Rent	-10% $407	-5% $481	+0% $554	+5% $627	+10% $700
Rate	-1.0pp $624	-0.5pp $589	base $554	+0.5pp $517	+1.0pp $481

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
333 N McLane Rd Payson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1205	$2,080	$1.73	14d	2	0.69mi
512 W Longhorn Rd Unit 4 Payson, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	45d	1	0.72mi
1015 S Goodfellow Rd Payson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1092	$2,000	$1.83	22d	1	1.23mi
905 N Beeline Hwy Payson, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1350	$1,500	$1.11	45d	2	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-27
   listed $140,000 Active 693-char remark

   Show marketing remark (693 chars)

   Opportunity awaits in Woodland Meadows! This 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home is full of potential and ready for your personal touch. Situated in a desirable Payson neighborhood, this fixer-upper offers a functional floor plan, covered carport, and low-maintenance landscaping with mature trees for added shade and privacy. Inside, you'll find spacious living and dining areas with plenty of room to reimagine and make your own. Being sold AS-IS, this property is ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build sweat equity in a great location close to shopping, dining, and all the amenities Payson has to offer. Bring your vision and unlock the possibilities! CASH BUYERS ONLY!

2. 2026-05-27
   listed $140,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (693 chars)

   Opportunity awaits in Woodland Meadows! This 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home is full of potential and ready for your personal touch. Situated in a desirable Payson neighborhood, this fixer-upper offers a functional floor plan, covered carport, and low-maintenance landscaping with mature trees for added shade and privacy. Inside, you'll find spacious living and dining areas with plenty of room to reimagine and make your own. Being sold AS-IS, this property is ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build sweat equity in a great location close to shopping, dining, and all the amenities Payson has to offer. Bring your vision and unlock the possibilities! CASH BUYERS ONLY!

3. 2016-02-17
   soldstatus $125,000
4. 2016-02-10
   soldstatus $125,000 319-char remark

   Show marketing remark (319 chars)

   New Metal roof, new carpet in living room, window coverings, laminate flooring in most of the home. Large walk-in closet in master bedroom. Includes washer, dryer, refrigerator, dishwasher. Fenced Backyard has raised garden area and fruit trees , Covered patio. Carport with work shop. Great neighborhood. Easy to show,

5. 2016-01-31
   listed $129,900 319-char remark

   Show marketing remark (319 chars)

   New Metal roof, new carpet in living room, window coverings, laminate flooring in most of the home. Large walk-in closet in master bedroom. Includes washer, dryer, refrigerator, dishwasher. Fenced Backyard has raised garden area and fruit trees , Covered patio. Carport with work shop. Great neighborhood. Easy to show,

6. 2004-09-30
   soldstatus $100,000
7. 1994-09-19
   soldstatus $48,000
8. 1992-11-06
   soldstatus $48,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,214 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,214 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,214
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,777
• − Management: −$1,777
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $4,650
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,116
• After-tax cash flow: $5,528/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Payson Unified District (4209)
• NCES district ID: 0406070
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,440
• Composite: 22.03/100
• National rank: #8200
• State rank: #138 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Payson

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #8740

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment B- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Payson, AZ
• County: Gila County · 23,382 people
• City population: 23,382
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,382
• Household income: $66,383
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 523.0

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.4005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+191.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $140,000 CAAR
• 2026-05-27 Listed $140,000 ARMLS
• 2016-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2016-02-10 Sold (MLS) $125,000 CAAR
• 2016-01-31 Listed $129,900 CAAR
• 2004-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 1994-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 1992-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,214 · -3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.