14427 Hillard Green Ln · Houston, TX 77047

$234,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,333 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 2006 5,362 sqft lot $176/sqft · at area comps Est $241k · at est. $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 14427 Hillard Green Lane! This charming property hass 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and stainless steel appliances. Situated on a corner lot, this single-family home offers a spacious interior with great natural lighting. The relaxing backyard features a covered patio and is fully fenced. Don't miss out on this wonderful opportunity to own a piece of paradise. Call today for a private showing!

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• Covered patio
• Corner lot

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CORNER LOT
• COVERED PATIO
• FULLY FENCED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-286/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (4.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Law El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 514 students, 91% FRL); Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 19% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 284 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,806 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.43%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,772
• List price: $234,900
• Delta: -2.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14239 Brunswick Point Ln	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,333 (0%)	4mo	$220,000	$165	90
14215 Brunswick Point Ln	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,333 (0%)	5mo	$239,000	$179	90
13512 Heritage Meadow Lane Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,288 (-3%)	10mo	$281,990	$219	79
13516 Heritage Meadow Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,288 (-3%)	13mo	$279,990	$217	77
14443 Benningcrest Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,264 (-5%)	0mo	$255,000	$202	75
14235 Stone Cottage Ln	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,335 (+0%)	2mo	$225,000	$169	67
14422 Hamilton Grv	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,180 (-12%)	14mo	$245,000	$208	58
3318 Field Manor Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,315 (-1%)	10mo	$229,000	$174	58
2715 Trinity Glen Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,513 (+14%)	10mo	$267,000	$176	52
14039 Embrystone Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,466 (+10%)	6mo	$270,000	$184	42
3439 Princeton Point Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,170 (-12%)	1mo	$224,500	$192	41
3415 Green Aspen Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,170 (-12%)	4mo	$229,900	$196	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-46,029
• Equity at exit: $35,024

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-66,927
• Equity at exit: $20,310

Cash invested: $65,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77047

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 284
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,249 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$438 /mo · $5,255/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,279

Max offer price $230,692

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $109	-5% $43	+0% $-24	+5% $-90	+10% $-157
Rent	-10% $-201	-5% $-113	+0% $-24	+5% $65	+10% $154
Rate	-1.0pp $94	-0.5pp $36	base $-24	+0.5pp $-85	+1.0pp $-147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,725
• Closing costs: $7,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3403 Orchid Trace Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1602	$1,920	$1.20	5d	1	0.55mi
3110 Kainer Meadows Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,900	$1.29	9d	1	0.61mi
2920 Stamford Hill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,200	$1.30	45d	1	1.27mi
1409 Woods Lake Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1719	$2,191	$1.27	45d	1	1.28mi
3020 Gunnersbury Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,499	$0.90	17d	1	1.35mi
4023 Almond Lake Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,980	$1.40	45d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $234,900 Pending 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $234,900 Pending 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $234,900 Pending 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $234,900 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $234,900 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $234,900 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $234,900 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $234,900 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $234,900 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $234,900 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $234,900 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $234,900 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-04-14
    listed $239,900 Active 398-char remark

    Show marketing remark (398 chars)

    Welcome to 14427 Hillard Green Lane! This charming property hass 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and stainless steel appliances. Situated on a corner lot, this single-family home offers a spacious interior with great natural lighting. The relaxing backyard features a covered patio and is fully fenced. Don't miss out on this wonderful opportunity to own a piece of paradise. Call today for a private showing!

14. 2022-07-21
    price $1,870
15. 2022-03-29
    soldstatus $240,000
16. 2022-03-25
    soldstatus Sold 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    Welcome Home! This beautiful 1 story corner lot has a lot to offer! 4 Bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, 2 car garage. Spacious interior with great natural lighting throughout home. Relaxing backyard with covered patio and fully fenced.

17. 2022-03-21
    status Pending 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    Welcome Home! This beautiful 1 story corner lot has a lot to offer! 4 Bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, 2 car garage. Spacious interior with great natural lighting throughout home. Relaxing backyard with covered patio and fully fenced.

18. 2022-03-11
    status Option Pending 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    Welcome Home! This beautiful 1 story corner lot has a lot to offer! 4 Bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, 2 car garage. Spacious interior with great natural lighting throughout home. Relaxing backyard with covered patio and fully fenced.

19. 2022-03-11
    status Pending 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    Welcome Home! This beautiful 1 story corner lot has a lot to offer! 4 Bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, 2 car garage. Spacious interior with great natural lighting throughout home. Relaxing backyard with covered patio and fully fenced.

20. 2022-02-03
    listed $240,000 Active 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    Welcome Home! This beautiful 1 story corner lot has a lot to offer! 4 Bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, 2 car garage. Spacious interior with great natural lighting throughout home. Relaxing backyard with covered patio and fully fenced.

21. 2018-03-22
    soldstatus
22. 2018-03-20
    soldstatus Sold
23. 2018-03-01
    status Pending
24. 2018-02-21
    status Option Pending
25. 2018-02-02
    listed $163,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,255 · $438/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,255 · $438/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,989
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,158
• − Property taxes: −$5,255
• − Insurance: −$1,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,159
• − Management: −$2,159
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$6,833
• Taxable loss: −$4,146
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$995
• After-tax cash flow: $709/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,987
• Household income: $78,538
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1109.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 15% White 6% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 23% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.76%
• Current HPI: 239.2287
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+47.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2022-07-21 Price Changed $1,870 RENT.
• 2022-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2022-03-25 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-03-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-03-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-03-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-02-03 Listed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2018-03-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-03-20 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-03-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-02-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-02-02 Listed $163,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,255 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.