Savara Plan · Castroville, TX 78009

$717,990

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into this stunning single-story home, where a dramatic foyer with arched openings and tray ceilings welcomes you with a versatile flex room, elegant formal living and dining areas, as well as a spacious family room. The family room boasts soaring ceilings adorned with tray details and cross beams, while expansive plate glass windows and transom windows frame the double glass doors that lead to a generous covered patio. The modern, open kitchen is a chef's dream, featuring a large designer island with seating, ample cabinet storage, and an oversized walk-in pantry.

Key facts

• Formal living areas
• Soaring ceilings
• Formal dining areas

Tags

• DRAMATIC FOYER
• FLEX ROOM
• FORMAL LIVING AREAS
• FORMAL DINING AREAS
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• SOARING CEILINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 100 Grace Ave, Castroville, TX 78009; Currently active listing
• Financial info:
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces
• Security:
• Utilities:
• Home design: New construction, Savara plan
• Construction:
• Exterior features: Living area of 3,600 (plan measurement)

Interior

• Kitchen:
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring:
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling:
• Interior features: Open living areas (plan-based new construction)
• Laundry & utility:

🏗️ New construction. The $717,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $712,559.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $718k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($282/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $716k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $626k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $626k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.7% in Castroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#212 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 441 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($696k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $626,311 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.14%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $712,559
• List price: $717,990
• Delta: 0.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
210 Landon Path	0.32mi	4/3.5	3,747 (+4%)	2mo	$794,800	$212	72
534 Englewood	0.39mi	4/3.5	3,568 (-1%)	6mo	$669,990	$188	72
287 Poe Pkwy	0.54mi	4/3.5	3,568 (-1%)	7mo	$669,990	$188	64
183 Poe Pkwy	0.43mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,716 (+3%)	4mo	$639,990	$172	62
264 Storm Way	0.71mi	4/3.5	3,568 (-1%)	1mo	$695,990	$195	60
250 Matthew Path	0.48mi	4/3.5	3,325 (-8%)	1mo	$699,900	$210	60
239 Sittre Dr	0.59mi	4/3.0	3,324 (-8%)	0mo	$635,000	$191	53
222 Raven Rd	0.64mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,885 (+8%)	2mo	$912,151	$235	50
411 Poe Pkwy	0.66mi	4/3.5	3,822 (+6%)	8mo	$809,800	$212	48
235 Poe	0.48mi	4/3.5	3,101 (-14%)	5mo	$599,900	$193	46
247 Storm Way	0.69mi	5/5.5 (+1)	3,800 (+6%)	8mo	$779,800	$205	43
267 Sweet Rose	0.72mi	4/3.5	3,094 (-14%)	1mo	$549,000	$177	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-113,872
• Equity at exit: $106,245

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-96,845
• Equity at exit: $61,609

Cash invested: $199,516 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78009

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 441
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,263 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,737
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$891 /mo · $10,688/yr
• Insurance: −$297
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,315
• Net cashflow: $24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,233

Max offer price $712,559

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $178,140
• Closing costs: $21,377
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
268 Englewood Ln Castroville, TX	5.0	4.5	4022	$7,200	$1.79	4d	1	0.12mi
270 Lilly Blf Castroville, TX	4.0	3.0	2958	$3,600	$1.22	43d	1	0.88mi
252 Elisabeth Run San Antonio, TX	5.0	2.5	2614	$1,995	$0.76	44d	1	1.36mi
206 Nesting Cyn San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2492	$1,741	$0.70	4d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $717,990 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $717,990 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $717,990 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $717,990 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $717,990 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $717,990 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $717,990 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $717,990 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $717,990 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $717,990 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $717,990 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $717,990 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $717,990 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    listed $717,990 Active 575-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $75,157
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,914
• − Property taxes: −$10,688
• − Insurance: −$3,563
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,013
• − Management: −$6,013
• − Depreciation: −$20,729
• Taxable loss: −$11,762
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,823
• After-tax cash flow: $3,105/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home in Castroville, TX, is in good condition with a modern kitchen, spacious living areas, and a well-maintained exterior. It is ready for move-in and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants.
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces utility costs for tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces utility costs for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — Castroville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #5267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,494

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 37% Two or more races 29% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Albanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.81%
• Current HPI: 212.1813
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B