Mesquite Plan · China Grove, TX 78263

$295,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,963 sqft · SingleFamily · 333 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The uniquely-designed, two-story Mesquite floor plan holds three bedrooms and two-and a half bathrooms, the perfect home for most any lifestyle. Upon entering your new Mesquite home, you will discover your convenient entry closet, the downstairs powder room, and access to your two-car garage. Following down the foyer, you are met by your spacious family room and stairway access to the second floor. Your walk-in utility room and kitchen opens up to the family room, while the formal dining area is ideal for hosting dinners with the entire family, fully embracing the open-concept layout. Your kitchen boasts an immense amount of space complete with granite countertops paired with a ceramic tile backsplash, flat-panel birch cabinets, designer light fixtures, a large walk-in pantry, and a kitchen island! Head across your dining room to your backyard, where you are met with the optional covered patio - perfect for backyard barbecues. When it's time to rest, wander to your private master suite accompanied by cultured marble countertops, a luxurious super shower, as well as your sizable walk-in closet. You will never have to compromise your space and comfort with the Mesquite floor plan. Head upstairs where you will come across the two additional bathrooms, and the full secondary bath across the hall from the bedrooms. Your CastleRock Mesquite home is built with you and your family's well-being in mind. That's why each of our homes are Energy Star Certified, providing you with. ..

Key facts

• Mesquite floor plan
• Walk in utility room
• Entry closet

Tags

• MESQUITE FLOOR PLAN
• ENTRY CLOSET
• DOWNSTAIRS POWDER ROOM
• TWO CAR GARAGE
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• WALK IN UTILITY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $295,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $302,490.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $296k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($463/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.6% in China Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#873 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sinclair El (math 13% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 92%, 721 students, 71% FRL); East Central Heritage Middle (math 11% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 1,120 students, 44% FRL); East Central H S (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,252 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 289 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 333 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,471 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 333 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.55%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $302,490
• List price: $295,990
• Delta: -2.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8303 Ingress Ave	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,808 (-8%)	3mo	$294,990	$163	83
4730 Fireweed Ct	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,808 (-8%)	3mo	$299,990	$166	81
4703 Kinsley Way	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,808 (-8%)	7mo	$304,990	$169	80
8408 Ingress Ave	0.05mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,192 (+12%)	3mo	$304,990	$139	71
4727 Fireweed Ct	0.07mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,192 (+12%)	3mo	$304,990	$139	70
4707 Kinsley Way	0.03mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,192 (+12%)	6mo	$314,990	$144	69
8307 Ingress Ave	0.04mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,192 (+12%)	9mo	$271,100	$124	66
4947 Hawkwell Ln	0.17mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,198 (+12%)	4mo	$325,740	$148	64
4944 Hawkwell Ln	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,689 (-14%)	9mo	$290,970	$172	62
8310 Quail Covey Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	2,247 (+14%)	18mo	$525,000	$234	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-46,517
• Equity at exit: $45,102

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-37,174
• Equity at exit: $26,154

Cash invested: $84,697 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78263

• Home prices YoY: -8.1%
• Active inventory: 289
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,695 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,586
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$378 /mo · $4,537/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$566
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,646

Max offer price $302,490

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $248	-5% $143	+0% $39	+5% $-66	+10% $-170
Rent	-10% $-174	-5% $-68	+0% $39	+5% $145	+10% $252
Rate	-1.0pp $191	-0.5pp $116	base $39	+0.5pp $-40	+1.0pp $-120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,622
• Closing costs: $9,075
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5330 Kody Crk San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2251	$2,695	$1.20	26d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $295,990 Active 333 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,990 Active 330 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,990 Active 329 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,990 Active 328 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,990 Active 327 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $295,990 Active 325 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $295,990 Active 321 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $295,990 Active 320 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $295,990 Active 319 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $295,990 Active 316 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $295,990 Active 315 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $295,990 Active 314 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $295,990 Active 313 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $295,990 Active 312 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    price $295,990 1496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1496 chars)

    The uniquely-designed, two-story Mesquite floor plan holds three bedrooms and two-and a half bathrooms, the perfect home for most any lifestyle. Upon entering your new Mesquite home, you will discover your convenient entry closet, the downstairs powder room, and access to your two-car garage. Following down the foyer, you are met by your spacious family room and stairway access to the second floor. Your walk-in utility room and kitchen opens up to the family room, while the formal dining area is ideal for hosting dinners with the entire family, fully embracing the open-concept layout. Your kitchen boasts an immense amount of space complete with granite countertops paired with a ceramic tile backsplash, flat-panel birch cabinets, designer light fixtures, a large walk-in pantry, and a kitchen island! Head across your dining room to your backyard, where you are met with the optional covered patio - perfect for backyard barbecues. When it's time to rest, wander to your private master suite accompanied by cultured marble countertops, a luxurious super shower, as well as your sizable walk-in closet. You will never have to compromise your space and comfort with the Mesquite floor plan. Head upstairs where you will come across the two additional bathrooms, and the full secondary bath across the hall from the bedrooms. Your CastleRock Mesquite home is built with you and your family's well-being in mind. That's why each of our homes are Energy Star Certified, providing you with. ..

16. 2025-09-03
    price $292,990 1496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1496 chars)

    The uniquely-designed, two-story Mesquite floor plan holds three bedrooms and two-and a half bathrooms, the perfect home for most any lifestyle. Upon entering your new Mesquite home, you will discover your convenient entry closet, the downstairs powder room, and access to your two-car garage. Following down the foyer, you are met by your spacious family room and stairway access to the second floor. Your walk-in utility room and kitchen opens up to the family room, while the formal dining area is ideal for hosting dinners with the entire family, fully embracing the open-concept layout. Your kitchen boasts an immense amount of space complete with granite countertops paired with a ceramic tile backsplash, flat-panel birch cabinets, designer light fixtures, a large walk-in pantry, and a kitchen island! Head across your dining room to your backyard, where you are met with the optional covered patio - perfect for backyard barbecues. When it's time to rest, wander to your private master suite accompanied by cultured marble countertops, a luxurious super shower, as well as your sizable walk-in closet. You will never have to compromise your space and comfort with the Mesquite floor plan. Head upstairs where you will come across the two additional bathrooms, and the full secondary bath across the hall from the bedrooms. Your CastleRock Mesquite home is built with you and your family's well-being in mind. That's why each of our homes are Energy Star Certified, providing you with. ..

17. 2025-07-24
    listed $285,990 Active 1496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1496 chars)

    The uniquely-designed, two-story Mesquite floor plan holds three bedrooms and two-and a half bathrooms, the perfect home for most any lifestyle. Upon entering your new Mesquite home, you will discover your convenient entry closet, the downstairs powder room, and access to your two-car garage. Following down the foyer, you are met by your spacious family room and stairway access to the second floor. Your walk-in utility room and kitchen opens up to the family room, while the formal dining area is ideal for hosting dinners with the entire family, fully embracing the open-concept layout. Your kitchen boasts an immense amount of space complete with granite countertops paired with a ceramic tile backsplash, flat-panel birch cabinets, designer light fixtures, a large walk-in pantry, and a kitchen island! Head across your dining room to your backyard, where you are met with the optional covered patio - perfect for backyard barbecues. When it's time to rest, wander to your private master suite accompanied by cultured marble countertops, a luxurious super shower, as well as your sizable walk-in closet. You will never have to compromise your space and comfort with the Mesquite floor plan. Head upstairs where you will come across the two additional bathrooms, and the full secondary bath across the hall from the bedrooms. Your CastleRock Mesquite home is built with you and your family's well-being in mind. That's why each of our homes are Energy Star Certified, providing you with. ..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,944
• − Property taxes: −$4,537
• − Insurance: −$1,512
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,587
• − Management: −$2,587
• − Depreciation: −$8,800
• Taxable loss: −$4,628
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,111
• After-tax cash flow: $1,574/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This Mesquite floor plan is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can enhance both resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace landscaping with more drought-tolerant plants — Reduces maintenance and enhances curb appeal
• Both Install smart home security system — Improves safety and adds modern amenities

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace landscaping with more drought-tolerant plants — Reduces maintenance and enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Install smart home security system — Improves safety and adds modern amenities ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

Livability — China Grove

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #873
• US rank: #15748

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,514

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 43% Two or more races 24% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Iranian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.29%
• Current HPI: 322.4738
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $295,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $292,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-24 Listed $285,990 Zillow