Forsythe Plan · Royse City, TX 75189

$353,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,540 sqft · SingleFamily · 297 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Forsythe is a versatile 4- to 5-bed, 2.5-bath, 2-story home designed for both comfort and style. The open kitchen flows seamlessly into the family room, with a central island offering extra prep space and casual seating. A downstairs primary suite provides convenience and privacy, while a dedicated studio offers a quiet space for work or hobbies. Upstairs, a spacious game room is perfect for entertainment or relaxation. Step outside to enjoy the included covered patio, with the option to extend it for even more outdoor living. Personalize your space with features like a cozy fireplace, charming box windows, or a balcony for an elevated view.

Key facts

• Central island
• Dedicated studio
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• DOWNSTAIRS PRIMARY SUITE
• DEDICATED STUDIO
• SPACIOUS GAME ROOM
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $353,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $380,529.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $354k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-374 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $326k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.2% in Royse City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#158 in TX, #4,292 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Royse City ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #266 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1288 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,810 units permitted in Rockwall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockwall County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 297 days — a 12% lower offer ($312k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $285,527 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 297 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.21%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $380,529
• List price: $353,990
• Delta: -6.97%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2103 Brookside Dr	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,681 (+6%)	0mo	$333,333	$124	88
1022 Watercourse Pl	0.02mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,686 (+6%)	4mo	$359,349	$134	81
3034 Concourse Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0	2,312 (-9%)	2mo	$359,900	$156	68
1114 Falls Rush Way	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,540 (0%)	3mo	$359,990	$142	64
6324 Delacroix Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,417 (-5%)	1mo	$391,000	$162	57
1222 Falls Rush Way	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,710 (+7%)	2mo	$352,990	$130	53
1118 Falls Rush	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,376 (-6%)	3mo	$344,990	$145	51
5543 Spieth Dr	0.64mi	4/3.5	2,770 (+9%)	2mo	$399,990	$144	50
3014 Duck Heights Ave	0.50mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,838 (+12%)	2mo	$474,800	$167	44
4006 Rio Run	0.54mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,849 (+12%)	3mo	$523,400	$184	41
7120 Van Gogh Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,841 (+12%)	3mo	$399,990	$141	41
5648 Huffines Blvd	0.74mi	4/2.0	2,211 (-13%)	3mo	$399,000	$180	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-93,813
• Equity at exit: $56,738

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-144,533
• Equity at exit: $32,901

Cash invested: $106,548 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75189

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1288
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,855 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$476 /mo · $5,708/yr
• Insurance: −$159
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$600
• Net cashflow: $-374

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,329

Max offer price $326,398

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-111	-5% $-243	+0% $-374	+5% $-506	+10% $-637
Rent	-10% $-600	-5% $-487	+0% $-374	+5% $-261	+10% $-149
Rate	-1.0pp $-182	-0.5pp $-277	base $-374	+0.5pp $-473	+1.0pp $-573

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,132
• Closing costs: $11,416
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4147 Lagoon Pl Royse City, TX	4.0	3.5	3088	$3,600	$1.17	2d	1	0.32mi
4139 Down Rush Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.5	3040	$2,799	$0.92	3d	1	0.36mi
4051 Delta Dr Royse City, TX	5.0	4.0	2835	$3,200	$1.13	44d	1	0.46mi
1334 Great Sand Dune St Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2303	$2,550	$1.11	13d	1	1.02mi
1140 Enchanted Rock Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2900	$2,450	$0.84	11d	1	1.05mi
4320 Cascade Falls Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2650	$2,400	$0.91	44d	1	1.18mi
520 Welch Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	3008	$2,600	$0.86	14d	1	1.22mi
4432 Cascade Falls Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2397	$2,265	$0.94	21d	1	1.24mi
1204 Blue Ridge Pl Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,400	$1.37	3d	1	1.26mi
173 Lisa Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.5	2417	$2,400	$0.99	44d	1	1.26mi
3427 Flatiron Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2395	$2,250	$0.94	11d	1	1.26mi
1212 Blue Ridge Pl Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2245	$2,450	$1.09	19d	1	1.27mi
320 Cookston Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	2213	$2,095	$0.95	6d	1	1.29mi
2404 Rocky Mountain Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2256	$2,264	$1.00	21d	1	1.32mi
525 Janette Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2059	$2,095	$1.02	14d	1	1.35mi
1609 Brandon Dr Royse City, TX	5.0	3.0	3041	$3,555	$1.17	44d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $353,990 Active 297 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $353,990 Active 296 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $353,990 Active 295 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $353,990 Active 294 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $353,990 Active 292 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $353,990 Active 288 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $353,990 Active 287 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $353,990 Active 286 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $353,990 Active 283 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $353,990 Active 282 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $353,990 Active 281 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $353,990 Active 280 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $353,990 Active 279 DOM
14. 2025-08-26
    listed $353,990 Active 653-char remark

    Show marketing remark (653 chars)

    The Forsythe is a versatile 4- to 5-bed, 2.5-bath, 2-story home designed for both comfort and style. The open kitchen flows seamlessly into the family room, with a central island offering extra prep space and casual seating. A downstairs primary suite provides convenience and privacy, while a dedicated studio offers a quiet space for work or hobbies. Upstairs, a spacious game room is perfect for entertainment or relaxation. Step outside to enjoy the included covered patio, with the option to extend it for even more outdoor living. Personalize your space with features like a cozy fireplace, charming box windows, or a balcony for an elevated view.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,263
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,316
• − Property taxes: −$5,708
• − Insurance: −$1,903
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,741
• − Management: −$2,741
• − Depreciation: −$11,070
• Taxable loss: −$11,215
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,692
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,797/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready and has a good resale and rental value. Consider painting the exterior and landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, which can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, which can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royse City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838220
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $73,810
• Composite: 38.44/100
• National rank: #4197
• State rank: #266 of 826 in TX

Livability — Royse City

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #158
• US rank: #4292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rockwall County · 132,930 people
• City population: 48,739
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,739
• Household income: $117,125
• Rent vs Own: 11.5% rent · 88.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 569.0

Population outlook (Rockwall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 118,396 people
• By 2030: 132,209 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 159,538 · +34.7%
• By 2050: 185,299 · +56.5%
• By 2075: 243,489 · +105.7%
• By 2100: 277,814 · +134.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Philippines, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockwall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.1% · R 70.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.3pp toward D · 2008: -46.2pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+37.7 2016: R+47.5 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+46.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.10%
• Current HPI: 212.8422
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.13%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-08-26 Listed $353,990 Zillow