1318 Capecastle Ln · Forney, TX 75126

$329,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,318 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,880 sqft lot Est $401k · 18% under $65/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21303900 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Jul 2026 completion! ~ The strength of the Oak II lies in its majestic design. It's simplicity itself to rustle up dinner in the gourmet kitchen featuring quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances and a center island. The dining room is steps away but separate from the wide living room. After dinner, throw down a video game challenge. You turned one of the upstairs bedrooms into the ultimate gaming room. Don't let it go to waste. The game room has become a comfortable flex room that easily transitions from home office to media room. Tuck into bed then retreat downstairs to your luxurious primary suite. Enjoy the peace and quiet.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Gaming room
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CENTER ISLAND
• GAMING ROOM
• FLEX ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 2,318 square feet
• Financial info: List price recorded (see listing for current price)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $65

Exterior

• Parking: Two parking spaces
• Security:
• Utilities: Central air conditioning; Heating (listed as Other)
• Home design: Single-family spec home built on the Oak II plan
• Construction:
• Exterior features:

Interior

• Kitchen:
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms
• Flooring:
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms and one half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating system (type listed as Other); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open interior living space
• Laundry & utility:

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $330k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-699/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $322k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $290k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby El (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 682 students, 59% FRL); Brown Middle (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 673 students, 56% FRL); North Forney H S (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,502 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 26% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $289,522 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.76%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $401,014
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1181 Nora Ln	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,318 (0%)	0mo	$329,990	$142	90
2935 Soaring Hills Dr	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,426 (+5%)	1mo	$424,900	$175	77
2929 Soaring Hills Dr	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,188 (-6%)	1mo	$374,900	$171	75
1165 Nora Ln	0.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,171 (-6%)	0mo	$399,900	$184	73
1889 Balfour Bnd	0.16mi	4/3.5	2,537 (+9%)	1mo	$347,990	$137	72
1185 Nora Ln	0.22mi	4/3.5	2,536 (+9%)	1mo	$349,990	$138	69
1017 Knoxbridge Rd	0.58mi	4/2.0	2,296 (-1%)	1mo	$350,000	$152	68
1603 Granton Way	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,593 (+12%)	1mo	$449,000	$173	65
2162 Charming Forge Rd	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,285 (-1%)	1mo	$484,480	$212	63
2235 Willowbank Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,986 (-14%)	0mo	$317,990	$160	61
2019 Brewers Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,984 (-14%)	1mo	$352,900	$178	52
1107 Barnmeadow Ln	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,545 (+10%)	1mo	$449,900	$177	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-61,631
• Equity at exit: $49,203

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-76,119
• Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,895 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$412 /mo · $4,950/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$608
• Net cashflow: $-58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,969

Max offer price $321,559

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $170	-5% $56	+0% $-58	+5% $-172	+10% $-286
Rent	-10% $-287	-5% $-173	+0% $-58	+5% $56	+10% $170
Rate	-1.0pp $108	-0.5pp $26	base $-58	+0.5pp $-144	+1.0pp $-231

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,498
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2029 Dovedale Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2426	$3,200	$1.32	45d	1	0.17mi
2452 Brightling Bnd Forney, TX	5.0	4.0	3200	$3,495	$1.09	21d	1	0.20mi
1806 Balfour Bnd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1981	$2,600	$1.31	26d	1	0.21mi
635 Brockwell Bnd Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2506	$3,300	$1.32	21d	1	0.32mi
2023 Avondown Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,191	$1.34	1d	1	0.47mi
1448 Kingswell Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2208	$2,950	$1.34	26d	1	0.48mi
1128 Queensdown Way Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2097	$2,999	$1.43	45d	1	0.52mi
2116 Sunnymede Dr Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2854	$3,300	$1.16	23d	1	0.57mi
1410 Crossford Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2707	$2,650	$0.98	4d	1	0.62mi
2136 Sunnymede Dr Forney, TX	4.0	4.0	2805	$3,200	$1.14	3d	1	0.63mi
1421 Kirkhill Ln Unit 1421 Heath, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$3,500	$1.38	23d	1	0.68mi
1421 Kirkhill Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$3,600	$1.41	26d	1	0.68mi
1120 Canterbury Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2450	$2,950	$1.20	15d	1	0.68mi
2239 Heaton Forney, TX	5.0	2.5	2780	$3,299	$1.19	19d	1	0.69mi
2225 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1909	$2,150	$1.13	45d	1	0.73mi
2213 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2146	$2,395	$1.12	19d	1	0.76mi
2213 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2146	$2,395	$1.12	9d	1	0.76mi
1729 High Perch Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,350	$1.37	45d	1	0.86mi
1017 Somerset Cir Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2185	$2,375	$1.09	9d	1	0.86mi
1025 Dunhill Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2273	$2,450	$1.08	4d	1	0.87mi
2287 Cliff Springs Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,195	$1.10	45d	1	0.87mi
1158 Barbary Fields St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1780	$2,200	$1.24	1d	1	0.87mi
2016 Croftbank St Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1920	$2,600	$1.35	1d	1	0.91mi
1633 Briar Hunt Dr Forney, TX	5.0	2.5	2470	$2,500	$1.01	23d	1	0.95mi
1636 Briar Hunt Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$2,250	$1.12	45d	1	0.98mi
1036 Edgefield Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2800	$6,700	$2.39	45d	1	0.99mi
1425 Rolling Fox Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2886	$3,300	$1.14	0d	1	1.01mi
1631 Rosy Finch Dr Heath, TX	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,600	$1.56	19d	1	1.02mi
1718 Cecil Crest Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2147	$2,395	$1.12	45d	1	1.03mi
1625 Rosy Finch Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$2,095	$1.26	45d	1	1.04mi
1622 Rosy Finch Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,195	$1.32	45d	1	1.06mi
1012 Barkers Pond Ave Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1710	$2,295	$1.34	5d	1	1.08mi
1708 Crossbill St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$1,840	$1.05	17d	1	1.10mi
2422 Arbutus Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2111	$2,045	$0.97	26d	1	1.11mi
1535 Calcot Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2036	$2,600	$1.28	17d	1	1.12mi
2421 Eldor Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,195	$1.31	26d	1	1.14mi
1539 Wheatley Way Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2396	$2,995	$1.25	19d	1	1.16mi
1539 Wheatley Way Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2396	$2,800	$1.17	12d	1	1.16mi
1462 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,195	$1.18	26d	1	1.17mi
1462 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,195	$1.18	4d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $329,990 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $334,990 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 691-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listing id $334,990 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   remarks 618-char remark
6. 2026-06-16
   listed $334,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,743
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$4,950
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,779
• − Management: −$2,779
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$6,280
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,507
• After-tax cash flow: $808/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is move-in ready with excellent condition and no visible repairs needed. It offers a high ROI with potential for landscaping and smart home upgrades.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B