18857 Bear Canyon Dr · Montgomery, TX 77356

$139,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 2005 1.00 ac lot $109/sqft · 50% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away in a peaceful Montgomery setting, this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a spacious lot with plenty of room to spread out. Natural light fills the living areas, creating a bright and open feel throughout. The property also features a 2-car detached garage, offering added storage or workspace flexibility. With updates needed and some deferred maintenance, this is a great opportunity to refresh and make it your own.

Key facts

• Added storage
• Natural light
• Spacious lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• ADDED STORAGE
• WORKSPACE FLEXIBILITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $315 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.0% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1056 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $964 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,945 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.68%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $281,158
• List price: $139,500
• Delta: -50.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-7,507
• Equity at exit: $20,800

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $104
• Equity at exit: $12,061

Cash invested: $39,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1056
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,723 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$732
• Tax from tax record: −$256 /mo · $3,076/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,324

Max offer price $139,500

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,875
• Closing costs: $4,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $139,500 Pending 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $139,500 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $139,500 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $139,500 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $139,500 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-05-05
   price $139,500 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   Tucked away in a peaceful Montgomery setting, this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a spacious lot with plenty of room to spread out. Natural light fills the living areas, creating a bright and open feel throughout. The property also features a 2-car detached garage, offering added storage or workspace flexibility. With updates needed and some deferred maintenance, this is a great opportunity to refresh and make it your own.

7. 2026-04-01
   price $154,900 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   Tucked away in a peaceful Montgomery setting, this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a spacious lot with plenty of room to spread out. Natural light fills the living areas, creating a bright and open feel throughout. The property also features a 2-car detached garage, offering added storage or workspace flexibility. With updates needed and some deferred maintenance, this is a great opportunity to refresh and make it your own.

8. 2026-03-16
   price $180,500 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   Tucked away in a peaceful Montgomery setting, this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a spacious lot with plenty of room to spread out. Natural light fills the living areas, creating a bright and open feel throughout. The property also features a 2-car detached garage, offering added storage or workspace flexibility. With updates needed and some deferred maintenance, this is a great opportunity to refresh and make it your own.

9. 2026-02-15
   listed $200,000 Active 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   Tucked away in a peaceful Montgomery setting, this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a spacious lot with plenty of room to spread out. Natural light fills the living areas, creating a bright and open feel throughout. The property also features a 2-car detached garage, offering added storage or workspace flexibility. With updates needed and some deferred maintenance, this is a great opportunity to refresh and make it your own.

10. 2025-09-05
    historical
11. 2025-08-20
    price $189,000
12. 2025-07-25
    listed $194,700 Active
13. 2014-10-10
    soldstatus
14. 2013-01-24
    soldstatus
15. 2009-10-01
    historical
16. 2009-04-15
    listed $86,900
17. 2009-03-16
    soldstatus
18. 1994-09-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,076 · $256/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,076 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,675
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,814
• − Property taxes: −$3,076
• − Insurance: −$698
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,654
• − Management: −$1,654
• − Depreciation: −$4,058
• Taxable income: $1,722
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$413
• After-tax cash flow: $3,368/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+60.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $139,500 HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $154,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $180,500 HARMLS
• 2026-02-15 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $189,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-25 Listed $194,700 HARMLS
• 2014-10-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-01-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-10-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-04-15 Listed $86,900 HARMLS
• 2009-03-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+28.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,076 · +9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.