2617 Janes St · Saginaw, MI 48601

$35,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 169 Days on market

Built 1926 7,405 sqft lot Est $41k · 15% under ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is a great opportunity for first-time buyers or investors, offering plenty of potential. It could use a few updates, but with a roof that’s only 3 years old, it’s a solid start. Sold as-is, it’s perfect for adding value, making it your own, or turning into a rental.

Key facts

• Roof three years old
• 7,405 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• ROOF THREE YEARS OLD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential property
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-level home
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Lot roughly 0.17 acres; Subdivision: SAGINAW; Cross streets: 21st Street and 19th Street

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Floor furnace heating; Natural gas heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: 5 total rooms; Basement present

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $542 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.9% vs local median 8.3% in Saginaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 199 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $30,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.42%
• DSCR: 3.96
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $40,936
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
315 S 19th St	0.12mi	2/1.0	912 (-4%)	5mo	$34,000	$37	84
347 S 19th St	0.16mi	3/1.0 (+1)	950 (-0%)	5mo	$27,500	$29	83
2621 Wadsworth Ave	0.51mi	2/1.0	958 (+1%)	3mo	$10,000	$10	73
427 S 19th St	0.22mi	2/1.0	874 (-8%)	11mo	$19,000	$22	67
2422 Snelling Pl	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	988 (+4%)	1mo	$97,084	$98	63
427 S 24th St	0.27mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,040 (+9%)	4mo	$79,900	$77	62
455 S 24th St	0.31mi	2/1.0	840 (-12%)	9mo	$30,000	$36	58
3366 Janes Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,024 (+8%)	3mo	$9,500	$9	51
2420 Bancroft St	0.59mi	2/1.0	845 (-11%)	4mo	$60,000	$71	50
420 S 31st St	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	988 (+4%)	11mo	$42,000	$43	50
525 S 14th St	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,046 (+10%)	9mo	$48,500	$46	46
523 S 29th St	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (-9%)	10mo	$75,000	$87	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.95×
• Total profit: $28,895
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.12×
• Total profit: $69,728
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48601

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,003 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $625/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$211
• Net cashflow: $542

Break-even live

Break-even rent $317

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $35,000 Active 169 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 168 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 167 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 166 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   listing id $35,000 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $35,000 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on marketlisting id $35,000 Active 164 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $35,000 Active 159 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $35,000 Active 156 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $35,000 Active 155 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,000 Active 154 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,000 Active 153 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 152 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $35,000 Active 151 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    price $35,000 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    This property is a great opportunity for first-time buyers or investors, offering plenty of potential. It could use a few updates, but with a roof that’s only 3 years old, it’s a solid start. Sold as-is, it’s perfect for adding value, making it your own, or turning into a rental.

18. 2026-05-22
    price $35,000

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    This property is a great opportunity for first-time buyers or investors, offering plenty of potential. It could use a few updates, but with a roof that’s only 3 years old, it’s a solid start. Sold as-is, it’s perfect for adding value, making it your own, or turning into a rental.

19. 2026-05-09
    price $37,000 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    This property is a great opportunity for first-time buyers or investors, offering plenty of potential. It could use a few updates, but with a roof that’s only 3 years old, it’s a solid start. Sold as-is, it’s perfect for adding value, making it your own, or turning into a rental.

20. 2026-05-08
    price $37,000
21. 2026-02-12
    price $44,000 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    This property is a great opportunity for first-time buyers or investors, offering plenty of potential. It could use a few updates, but with a roof that’s only 3 years old, it’s a solid start. Sold as-is, it’s perfect for adding value, making it your own, or turning into a rental.

22. 2026-02-11
    price $44,000
23. 2025-12-30
    listed $50,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    This property is a great opportunity for first-time buyers or investors, offering plenty of potential. It could use a few updates, but with a roof that’s only 3 years old, it’s a solid start. Sold as-is, it’s perfect for adding value, making it your own, or turning into a rental.

24. 2025-12-30
    listed $50,000 Active 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    This property is a great opportunity for first-time buyers or investors, offering plenty of potential. It could use a few updates, but with a roof that’s only 3 years old, it’s a solid start. Sold as-is, it’s perfect for adding value, making it your own, or turning into a rental.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $625 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $625 · $52/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,040
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$625
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$963
• − Management: −$963
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $6,335
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,520
• After-tax cash flow: $4,989/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw School District
• NCES district ID: 2630390
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,940
• Composite: 19.6/100
• National rank: #8755
• State rank: #444 of 540 in MI

Livability — Saginaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #15424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saginaw, MI
• City population: 54,884
• Population (ZIP): 32,069

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.46%
• Current HPI: 197.3359
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-30.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $35,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $35,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $37,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $37,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $44,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $44,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-12-30 Listed $50,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-12-30 Listed $50,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $625 · -14.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.