1556 Sunset Dr · Baird, TX 79504

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,713 sqft · SingleFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,229 sqft lot $166/sqft · 29% above area Est $221k · 29% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Owner-Agent. Welcome to this stunning 2026 new construction modern farmhouse nestled on a quiet cul-de-sac in Baird, just 20 minutes from Abilene with easy I-20 access. Light colored brick and a bright, airy interior set the tone from the moment you arrive. Step inside to find gorgeous LVP flooring flowing throughout the open living and dining area, where vaulted ceilings and a beautiful wood beam create a warm, inviting atmosphere. The kitchen is built to impress with quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, a generous workspace, and a walk-in pantry that keeps everything organized and within reach. The oversized primary suite is a true retreat, offering double walk-in closets, a double vanity, and a large walk-in shower. The guest bedrooms are larger than typical and each feature their own walk-in closets, giving everyone plenty of space and storage. This home is built for long term comfort and efficiency with spray foam insulation and LED lighting throughout. Sitting on a 0.143 acre cul-de-sac lot, this 1,713 sq ft home delivers thoughtful design, quality construction, and modern farmhouse charm in a peaceful country subdivision setting.

Key facts

• 6,229 sq ft lot
• Built 2026
• Listed 27 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#195 in TX, #4,977 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Baird ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #731 of 1,141 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Callahan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (7.7% local appreciation)).
• Callahan County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $235,500 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.64%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,289
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: 28.79%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1433 Sunset Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,713 (0%)	14mo	$246,900	$144	85
1409 Mesa Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,745 (+2%)	6mo	$250,000	$143	83
16 Saddle Rdg	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,690 (-1%)	20mo	$320,000	$189	62
533 Thelma Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,576 (-8%)	12mo	$169,900	$108	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.74% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $105,777
• Equity at exit: $211,509

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.91×
• Total profit: $312,037
• Equity at exit: $415,150

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79504

• Home prices YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,355 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,275/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,493

Max offer price $269,210

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending 1168-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1168 chars)

   Owner-Agent. Welcome to this stunning 2026 new construction modern farmhouse nestled on a quiet cul-de-sac in Baird, just 20 minutes from Abilene with easy I-20 access. Light colored brick and a bright, airy interior set the tone from the moment you arrive. Step inside to find gorgeous LVP flooring flowing throughout the open living and dining area, where vaulted ceilings and a beautiful wood beam create a warm, inviting atmosphere. The kitchen is built to impress with quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, a generous workspace, and a walk-in pantry that keeps everything organized and within reach. The oversized primary suite is a true retreat, offering double walk-in closets, a double vanity, and a large walk-in shower. The guest bedrooms are larger than typical and each feature their own walk-in closets, giving everyone plenty of space and storage. This home is built for long term comfort and efficiency with spray foam insulation and LED lighting throughout. Sitting on a 0.143 acre cul-de-sac lot, this 1,713 sq ft home delivers thoughtful design, quality construction, and modern farmhouse charm in a peaceful country subdivision setting.

2. 2026-03-29
   listed $285,000 Active 1168-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1168 chars)

   Owner-Agent. Welcome to this stunning 2026 new construction modern farmhouse nestled on a quiet cul-de-sac in Baird, just 20 minutes from Abilene with easy I-20 access. Light colored brick and a bright, airy interior set the tone from the moment you arrive. Step inside to find gorgeous LVP flooring flowing throughout the open living and dining area, where vaulted ceilings and a beautiful wood beam create a warm, inviting atmosphere. The kitchen is built to impress with quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, a generous workspace, and a walk-in pantry that keeps everything organized and within reach. The oversized primary suite is a true retreat, offering double walk-in closets, a double vanity, and a large walk-in shower. The guest bedrooms are larger than typical and each feature their own walk-in closets, giving everyone plenty of space and storage. This home is built for long term comfort and efficiency with spray foam insulation and LED lighting throughout. Sitting on a 0.143 acre cul-de-sac lot, this 1,713 sq ft home delivers thoughtful design, quality construction, and modern farmhouse charm in a peaceful country subdivision setting.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$4,275
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,261
• − Management: −$2,261
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$6,217
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,492
• After-tax cash flow: $183/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This modern farmhouse is in excellent condition with a well-maintained interior and exterior. It offers a spacious kitchen, a good-sized bathroom, and hardwood floors throughout. The property is located on a quiet cul-de-sac, making it an ideal location for a family or investor. The property is move-in ready and has the potential to be further enhanced with some landscaping and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhancing the landscaping and curb appeal can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Add a small shed or storage unit — A small shed or storage unit can provide additional storage and enhance the property's functionality.
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase the property's appeal and value by making it more convenient for potential buyers and renters.
• Both Add a small patio or outdoor seating area — A small patio or outdoor seating area can enhance the property's appeal and value by providing a space for relaxation and entertaining guests.
• Both Add a small garden or flower bed — A small garden or flower bed can enhance the property's curb appeal and add a touch of nature to the exterior.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhancing the landscaping and curb appeal can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Add a small shed or storage unit — A small shed or storage unit can provide additional storage and enhance the property's functionality. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase the property's appeal and value by making it more convenient for potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Add a small patio or outdoor seating area — A small patio or outdoor seating area can enhance the property's appeal and value by providing a space for relaxation and entertaining guests. ↑
• Both Add a small garden or flower bed — A small garden or flower bed can enhance the property's curb appeal and add a touch of nature to the exterior. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baird ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809280
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,351
• Composite: 36.29/100
• National rank: #9407
• State rank: #731 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Baird

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #4977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baird, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,995

Population outlook (Callahan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,664 people
• By 2030: 13,578 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 13,283 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 13,008 · -4.8%
• By 2075: 12,354 · -9.6%
• By 2100: 11,326 · -17.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 16% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Callahan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.6) · D 10.9% · R 88.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -61.7pp · 2024: -77.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.6 2020: R+77.3 2016: R+77.2 2012: R+69.8 2008: R+61.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.74%
• Current HPI: 161.9583
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-29 Listed $285,000 NTREIS