178 Ash Cir · Centre Hall, PA 16828

$49,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1998

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this nicely maintained 1998 16’ x 80’ mobile home located in the desirable Black Hawk Park community in Centre Hall, PA. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, this move-in-ready home combines comfort and functionality. Recent improvements include a durable newer metal roof, newer water heater, and tasteful interior updates including central air that enhance the home’s appeal. The spacious layout provides comfortable living areas, while the covered front porch and covered rear porch create inviting spaces to relax and enjoy the outdoors. Situated on a level lot shaded by mature trees, the property also features three large storage sheds, providing ample room

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Metal roof
• Water heater

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• WATER HEATER
• CENTRAL AIR
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• COVERED REAR PORCH
• LEVEL LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Not in a federal flood zone
• HOA & community: Land lease amount $520 monthly; Park: Black Hawk Village; Pets allowed with no restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Driveway accommodates 4 vehicles; Total of 4 garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; Shared well water; Electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Manufactured home (Modular/Manufactured); Single wide (16' x 80'); Land lease community (monthly land lease)
• Construction: Metal roof; Manufactured structure; Built by Commodore
• Exterior features: Deck(s) with enclosed and roofed area; Roof deck; Shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level (Bedroom 1, Bedroom 2, Bedroom 3)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Living Room; Full Bath
• Laundry & utility: Main floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#684 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Penns Valley Area SD (rural): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #144 of 539 in PA (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 399 units permitted in Centre County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Centre County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $35k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $49,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 98.80%
• DSCR: 5.40
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 99.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.67×
• Total profit: $65,186
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.82×
• Total profit: $151,122
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16828

• Home prices YoY: -9.7%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,842 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $271/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $1,150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $386

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,179	-5% $1,165	+0% $1,150	+5% $1,136	+10% $1,122
Rent	-10% $1,005	-5% $1,078	+0% $1,150	+5% $1,223	+10% $1,296
Rate	-1.0pp $1,176	-0.5pp $1,163	base $1,150	+0.5pp $1,137	+1.0pp $1,124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 681-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $49,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $271 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $530 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$259/yr (+$22/mo · 95.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,108
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$271
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,769
• − Management: −$1,769
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $13,803
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,313
• After-tax cash flow: $10,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Penns Valley Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4218810
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $51,830
• Composite: 45.0/100
• National rank: #2700
• State rank: #144 of 539 in PA

Livability — Centre Hall

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #684
• US rank: #6705

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,774

Population outlook (Centre County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 177,113 people
• By 2030: 185,138 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 196,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 205,070 · +15.8%
• By 2075: 217,575 · +22.8%
• By 2100: 230,649 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Centre

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 48.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.0pp toward R · 2008: 11.8pp · 2024: 2.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.8 2020: D+4.8 2016: D+1.9 2012: R+0.0 2008: D+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.12%
• Current HPI: 204.9075
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+42.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $49,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1998-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $271 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.