3954 Ken Tenn Hwy · Union City, TN 38261

$120,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,773 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 336 Days on market

Built 1970 1.44 ac lot $68/sqft · 35% below area Est $201k · 40% under ↓ 8% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 3BR with more possibilities, 3Bath, attached 2-car garage, big eat-in kitchen. Great for an investment. House has lots of potential. Updated electrical, new cookstove and new water heater. Buyer is responsible for checking square footage and acreage. Listing agency is not responsible for inaccuracies.

Key facts

• 1.44 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1970

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $308 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#90 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities D-.
• Obion County (rural): math 40% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #17 of 139 in TN (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Obion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Obion County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 336 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 336 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.99%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $201,413
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -40.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5021 Mcclard Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,844 (+4%)	5mo	$163,800	$89	62
4985 Mcclard Rd	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,560 (-12%)	5mo	$190,000	$122	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $100
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $25,093
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38261

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,280 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $285/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $308

Break-even live

Break-even rent $890

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $376	-5% $342	+0% $308	+5% $274	+10% $240
Rent	-10% $207	-5% $257	+0% $308	+5% $358	+10% $409
Rate	-1.0pp $368	-0.5pp $338	base $308	+0.5pp $277	+1.0pp $245

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 336 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 335 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 334 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 333 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 332 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 330 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 329 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 326 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 325 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 324 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 323 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 320 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 319 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 318 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 317 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 316 DOM
17. 2025-10-13
    price $120,000 311-char remark

    Show marketing remark (311 chars)

    Spacious 3BR with more possibilities, 3Bath, attached 2-car garage, big eat-in kitchen. Great for an investment. House has lots of potential. Updated electrical, new cookstove and new water heater. Buyer is responsible for checking square footage and acreage. Listing agency is not responsible for inaccuracies.

18. 2025-07-18
    listed $130,000 Active 311-char remark

    Show marketing remark (311 chars)

    Spacious 3BR with more possibilities, 3Bath, attached 2-car garage, big eat-in kitchen. Great for an investment. House has lots of potential. Updated electrical, new cookstove and new water heater. Buyer is responsible for checking square footage and acreage. Listing agency is not responsible for inaccuracies.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $285 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $852 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$567/yr (+$47/mo · 198.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,354
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$285
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,228
• − Management: −$1,228
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $1,800
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$432
• After-tax cash flow: $3,262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Obion County
• NCES district ID: 4703270
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,678
• Composite: 32.48/100
• National rank: #5710
• State rank: #17 of 139 in TN

Livability — Union City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #9648

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,338

Population outlook (Obion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,434 people
• By 2030: 27,100 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 24,381 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 22,043 · -22.5%
• By 2075: 18,236 · -35.9%
• By 2100: 16,435 · -42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Obion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.9) · D 17.2% · R 82.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.8pp toward R · 2008: -34.1pp · 2024: -64.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.9 2020: R+60.6 2016: R+58.1 2012: R+44.7 2008: R+34.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.55%
• Current HPI: 191.8825
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $120,000 RRAR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-07-18 Listed $130,000 RRAR as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $285 · +163.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.