407 9th St · Lincoln, IL 62656

$19,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1872 5,328 sqft lot Est $20k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your very own tiny home! This darling efficient conveniently situated vinyl sided home would be a breeze to own complete with low taxes, low maintenance, and low utilities! The practical interior boasts a living room, equipped eat-in kitchen, cozy bedroom, rear mechanical area, and a full bath. Property also features a partial basement (exterior access only) and a newly installed architectural roof (2023). Seller to install furnace prior to settlement, too! Own for SO much less than rent with this tidy residential dwelling! ** Sold as presented -- conventional or cash only, please! **

Key facts

• Vinyl sided
• Furnace replaced
• Partial basement

Tags

• VINYL SIDED
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• REAR FACING EXTERIOR ACCESS
• PARTIAL BASEMENT
• FURNACE REPLACED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $469 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($771 rent vs $20k).
• Cap rate 34.6% vs local median 4.1% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#509 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Lincoln Chsd 404 (town): math 21% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #367 of 620 in IL (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Comm High School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #304 of 693 statewide, top 44%, 786 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $597 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Logan County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1872 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $19,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1872 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 101.01%
• DSCR: 5.49
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $19,680
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
407 9th St	0.00mi	1/1.0	480 (0%)	0mo	$19,900	$41	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.78×
• Total profit: $26,660
• Equity at exit: $2,967

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.08×
• Total profit: $61,733
• Equity at exit: $1,721

Cash invested: $5,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62656

• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $771 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$104
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $332/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$162
• Net cashflow: $469

Break-even live

Break-even rent $178

Max offer price $19,900

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,975
• Closing costs: $597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-02-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-20
   listed $19,900 Active
3. 2023-12-29
   soldstatus $26,000 Closed 591-char remark

   Show marketing remark (591 chars)

   Your very own tiny home! This darling efficient conveniently situated vinyl sided home would be a breeze to own complete with low taxes, low maintenance, and low utilities! The practical interior boasts a living room, equipped eat-in kitchen, cozy bedroom, rear mechanical area, and a full bath. Property also features a partial basement (exterior access only) and a newly installed architectural roof (2023). Seller to install furnace prior to settlement, too! Own for SO much less than rent with this tidy residential dwelling! ** Sold as presented -- conventional or cash only, please! **

4. 2023-12-13
   status Pending 591-char remark

   Show marketing remark (591 chars)

   Your very own tiny home! This darling efficient conveniently situated vinyl sided home would be a breeze to own complete with low taxes, low maintenance, and low utilities! The practical interior boasts a living room, equipped eat-in kitchen, cozy bedroom, rear mechanical area, and a full bath. Property also features a partial basement (exterior access only) and a newly installed architectural roof (2023). Seller to install furnace prior to settlement, too! Own for SO much less than rent with this tidy residential dwelling! ** Sold as presented -- conventional or cash only, please! **

5. 2023-12-10
   listed $25,000 Active 591-char remark

   Show marketing remark (591 chars)

   Your very own tiny home! This darling efficient conveniently situated vinyl sided home would be a breeze to own complete with low taxes, low maintenance, and low utilities! The practical interior boasts a living room, equipped eat-in kitchen, cozy bedroom, rear mechanical area, and a full bath. Property also features a partial basement (exterior access only) and a newly installed architectural roof (2023). Seller to install furnace prior to settlement, too! Own for SO much less than rent with this tidy residential dwelling! ** Sold as presented -- conventional or cash only, please! **

6. 2010-09-28
   soldstatus $13,000
7. 2006-07-10
   soldstatus $16,000 249-char remark

   Show marketing remark (249 chars)

   New electrical 2005, new water heater 2005, new main water line 2002. Cellar-get to from outside. Cute little home, great rental property or starter home. Freshly painted, has a murphy bed in back room. Very efficient, nice yard, quiet neighborhood.

8. 2005-11-02
   listed $18,500 249-char remark

   Show marketing remark (249 chars)

   New electrical 2005, new water heater 2005, new main water line 2002. Cellar-get to from outside. Cute little home, great rental property or starter home. Freshly painted, has a murphy bed in back room. Very efficient, nice yard, quiet neighborhood.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $332 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $392 · $33/mo
• Expected delta: +$60/yr (+$5/mo · 18.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,255
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,115
• − Property taxes: −$332
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$740
• − Management: −$740
• − Depreciation: −$579
• Taxable income: $5,649
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,356
• After-tax cash flow: $4,272/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln Chsd 404
• NCES district ID: 1723050
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $41,489
• Composite: 20.4/100
• National rank: #8590
• State rank: #367 of 620 in IL

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #509
• US rank: #10514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lincoln, IL
• City population: 18,364
• Population (ZIP): 18,364

Population outlook (Logan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,066 people
• By 2030: 27,370 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 26,078 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 24,908 · -11.3%
• By 2075: 22,504 · -19.8%
• By 2100: 19,226 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Logan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.5) · D 28.2% · R 69.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -16.9pp · 2024: -41.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.5 2020: R+39.8 2016: R+40.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+16.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.45%
• Current HPI: 133.9499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+7.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Listed $19,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-29 Sold (MLS) $26,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-13 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-10 Listed $25,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records
• 2006-07-10 Sold (MLS) $16,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-02 Listed $18,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-6.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $332 · -60.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.