418 E Jones Ave · Pharr, TX 78577

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,356 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1982 6,847 sqft lot $92/sqft · 24% below area Est $165k · 24% under ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this great investment opportunity or your future home. This property features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, perfect for families looking for comfort and functionality. Conveniently located in a prime area of Pharr, you’ll be just minutes from the expressway, with quick access to shopping centers, restaurants, and stores—making your everyday life easier.

Key facts

• Prime area
• Quick access
• 6,847 sq ft lot

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• PRIME AREA
• QUICK ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-116 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $104k (16.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $104k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in Pharr — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#245 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #740 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 451 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,431 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.71%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $165,406
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -24.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
412 S Athol St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-0%)	5mo	$90,000	$67	79
517 E Jones Ave	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,488 (+10%)	10mo	$155,000	$104	71
513 E Hawk Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,331 (-2%)	1mo	$190,000	$143	64
1023 S Birch St	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-15%)	4mo	$157,000	$136	58
205 S Linden St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-0%)	19mo	$195,000	$144	50
224 W Kelly Ave	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,494 (+10%)	18mo	$234,500	$157	38
700 E Juarez Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,465 (+8%)	18mo	$180,000	$123	38
114 W Leakey St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,496 (+10%)	20mo	$194,900	$130	38
1307 E Daffodil St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,430 (+6%)	22mo	$205,000	$143	34
510 E Lucas Ave	0.66mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,504 (+11%)	20mo	$115,000	$76	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-31,186
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-50,253
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78577

• Home prices YoY: -8.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 451
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,257 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$336 /mo · $4,027/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $-116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,405

Max offer price $104,431

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
518 E Kelly Ave Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	1482	$1,300	$0.88	44d	1	0.14mi
810 S Athol St Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1088	$1,250	$1.15	44d	1	0.28mi
305 W Boone Ave Pharr, TX	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,300	$1.16	23d	1	0.52mi
305 W Boone Ave Pharr, TX	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,300	$1.16	14d	1	0.52mi
808 E Evans Ave Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1093	$1,400	$1.28	44d	1	0.56mi
134 W Daffodil Ave Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1684	$1,500	$0.89	23d	1	0.64mi
1305 James Cir Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,550	$1.02	23d	1	0.98mi
909 W Carmel Ave Apt 1 Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	965	$1,225	$1.27	44d	1	1.19mi
909 W Carmel Ave Unit 3 Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	965	$1,195	$1.24	44d	1	1.19mi
1606 Kumquat Ave Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,398	$0.95	44d	1	1.22mi
904 S Palm Dr Unit 4 Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	1004	$875	$0.87	44d	1	1.25mi
909 W Smith Dr Unit 1 Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,100	$1.16	23d	1	1.26mi
311 W 8th St San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$1,390	$0.76	44d	1	1.26mi
1317 Jubilee Ave Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	930	$1,000	$1.08	44d	1	1.28mi
1803 S Horse St Unit 2 Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	972	$825	$0.85	23d	1	1.28mi
1803 S Ironwood St Unit 4 Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	925	$899	$0.97	44d	1	1.30mi
907 S Diplomat Dr Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,750	$1.30	44d	1	1.30mi
1806 S Ironwood St Apt D Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	910	$850	$0.93	44d	1	1.32mi
1806 S Ironwood St Pharr, TX	2.0	2.5	910	$850	$0.93	44d	1	1.32mi
1606 S Kumquat St Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,350	$0.91	23d	1	1.32mi
1300 E Quail St Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$995	$0.90	23d	1	1.33mi
1304 E Quail St Unit D Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1065	$825	$0.77	19d	1	1.34mi
1802 S Kumquat St Unit B Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	910	$850	$0.93	44d	1	1.34mi
1802 S Kumquat St Unit B Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	910	$850	$0.93	21d	1	1.34mi
1302 S Diplomat Dr Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$850	$0.89	14d	1	1.37mi
1504 E Quail St Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$995	$0.90	44d	1	1.39mi
1806 S Linden St Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$995	$0.90	44d	1	1.39mi
1807 S Linden St Unit A Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	960	$900	$0.94	44d	1	1.41mi
1604 E Quail St Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	956	$850	$0.89	44d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-01
   price $125,000 375-char remark

   Show marketing remark (375 chars)

   Discover this great investment opportunity or your future home. This property features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, perfect for families looking for comfort and functionality. Conveniently located in a prime area of Pharr, you’ll be just minutes from the expressway, with quick access to shopping centers, restaurants, and stores—making your everyday life easier.

2. 2026-04-08
   listed $145,000 Active 375-char remark

   Show marketing remark (375 chars)

   Discover this great investment opportunity or your future home. This property features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, perfect for families looking for comfort and functionality. Conveniently located in a prime area of Pharr, you’ll be just minutes from the expressway, with quick access to shopping centers, restaurants, and stores—making your everyday life easier.

3. 2022-12-10
   historical
4. 2022-11-04
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (478 chars)

   Come take a look at this super cute farm style home located in the center of Pharr, TX! This home has been completely remodeled! New paint, new kitchen cabinets, new fixtures throughout the home. With 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, an open concept kitchen with a ceramic farm sink, this home will make a perfect starter home. Home comes with a storage shed perfect to place for extra storage. Walking distance to PSJA stadium and close to many shopping areas. Schedule your showing today!

5. 2022-11-04
   status Pending 478-char remark

   Show marketing remark (478 chars)

   Come take a look at this super cute farm style home located in the center of Pharr, TX! This home has been completely remodeled! New paint, new kitchen cabinets, new fixtures throughout the home. With 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, an open concept kitchen with a ceramic farm sink, this home will make a perfect starter home. Home comes with a storage shed perfect to place for extra storage. Walking distance to PSJA stadium and close to many shopping areas. Schedule your showing today!

6. 2022-11-03
   soldstatus Sold 478-char remark

   Show marketing remark (478 chars)

   Come take a look at this super cute farm style home located in the center of Pharr, TX! This home has been completely remodeled! New paint, new kitchen cabinets, new fixtures throughout the home. With 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, an open concept kitchen with a ceramic farm sink, this home will make a perfect starter home. Home comes with a storage shed perfect to place for extra storage. Walking distance to PSJA stadium and close to many shopping areas. Schedule your showing today!

7. 2022-10-27
   historical Option 478-char remark

   Show marketing remark (478 chars)

   Come take a look at this super cute farm style home located in the center of Pharr, TX! This home has been completely remodeled! New paint, new kitchen cabinets, new fixtures throughout the home. With 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, an open concept kitchen with a ceramic farm sink, this home will make a perfect starter home. Home comes with a storage shed perfect to place for extra storage. Walking distance to PSJA stadium and close to many shopping areas. Schedule your showing today!

8. 2022-10-21
   status Active 478-char remark

   Show marketing remark (478 chars)

   Come take a look at this super cute farm style home located in the center of Pharr, TX! This home has been completely remodeled! New paint, new kitchen cabinets, new fixtures throughout the home. With 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, an open concept kitchen with a ceramic farm sink, this home will make a perfect starter home. Home comes with a storage shed perfect to place for extra storage. Walking distance to PSJA stadium and close to many shopping areas. Schedule your showing today!

9. 2022-10-21
   status Pending 478-char remark

   Show marketing remark (478 chars)

   Come take a look at this super cute farm style home located in the center of Pharr, TX! This home has been completely remodeled! New paint, new kitchen cabinets, new fixtures throughout the home. With 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, an open concept kitchen with a ceramic farm sink, this home will make a perfect starter home. Home comes with a storage shed perfect to place for extra storage. Walking distance to PSJA stadium and close to many shopping areas. Schedule your showing today!

10. 2022-10-18
    historical Option 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Come take a look at this super cute farm style home located in the center of Pharr, TX! This home has been completely remodeled! New paint, new kitchen cabinets, new fixtures throughout the home. With 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, an open concept kitchen with a ceramic farm sink, this home will make a perfect starter home. Home comes with a storage shed perfect to place for extra storage. Walking distance to PSJA stadium and close to many shopping areas. Schedule your showing today!

11. 2022-10-03
    listed $160,000 Active 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Come take a look at this super cute farm style home located in the center of Pharr, TX! This home has been completely remodeled! New paint, new kitchen cabinets, new fixtures throughout the home. With 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, an open concept kitchen with a ceramic farm sink, this home will make a perfect starter home. Home comes with a storage shed perfect to place for extra storage. Walking distance to PSJA stadium and close to many shopping areas. Schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,027 · $336/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,027 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,087
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$4,027
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,207
• − Management: −$1,207
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$3,415
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$820
• After-tax cash flow: $-578/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,757
• Composite: 19.63/100
• National rank: #8744
• State rank: #740 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pharr

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #245
• US rank: #5852

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pharr, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 80,540
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 80,540
• Household income: $52,770
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2161.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 95% Two or more races 45% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 92%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 81%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.00%
• Current HPI: 261.1606
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.24%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-21.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $125,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $145,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2022-12-10 Rental Removed — RENT.
• 2022-11-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-11-04 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2022-11-03 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2022-10-27 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2022-10-21 Relisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2022-10-21 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2022-10-18 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2022-10-03 Listed $160,000 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,027 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.