The Auburn Plan · Conroe, TX 77384

$272,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,094 sqft · SingleFamily · 88 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Auburn is a 2-story home with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths and a spacious 1st floor flex space that can act as a separate office space, game room, or guest suite. The primary suite and 2 additional bedrooms are located on the 2nd floor.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 88 days

🏗️ New construction. The $272,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $288,047.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $273k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-215 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 310 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $224,703 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.21%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,047
• List price: $272,990
• Delta: -5.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2542 Sturgeon Way	0.04mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,065 (-1%)	1mo	$269,900	$131	90
2510 Carp Dr	0.25mi	3/2.5	2,082 (-1%)	2mo	$240,000	$115	86
14008 Paddlefish Dr	0.19mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,100 (+0%)	9mo	$259,998	$124	78
2414 Coachlight Ln	0.39mi	3/2.5	2,195 (+5%)	2mo	$445,000	$203	72
2419 Carriage Ridge Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	2,303 (+10%)	2mo	$395,000	$172	58
13356 Burbot Dr	0.75mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,111 (+1%)	4mo	$289,990	$137	56
13368 Burbot Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,940 (-7%)	4mo	$274,990	$142	46
13613 Goldeye Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,940 (-7%)	7mo	$249,990	$129	45
2328 Mooneye Ct	0.64mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,940 (-7%)	10mo	$274,990	$142	45
2348 Mooneye Ct	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,940 (-7%)	10mo	$269,990	$139	44
12382 New River Trl	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,895 (-10%)	1mo	$310,000	$164	42
13265 Musky Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,940 (-7%)	10mo	$266,000	$137	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-66,009
• Equity at exit: $42,949

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-97,015
• Equity at exit: $24,905

Cash invested: $80,653 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77384

• Home prices YoY: -22.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 310
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,247 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,511
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$360 /mo · $4,321/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-215

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,520

Max offer price $256,868

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,012
• Closing costs: $8,641
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2547 Steelhead Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2628	$2,390	$0.91	5d	1	0.25mi
14031 Chinook Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.5	2630	$2,550	$0.97	43d	1	0.35mi
9811 Laurel Lake Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1830	$1,867	$1.02	1d	1	1.03mi
14221 Rainier Peak Xing Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2289	$2,446	$1.07	7d	1	1.12mi
9857 Laurel Lake Dr Shenandoah, TX	4.0	2.0	1717	$2,250	$1.31	22d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $272,990 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $272,990 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $272,990 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $272,990 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $272,990 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $272,990 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $272,990 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $272,990 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $272,990 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $272,990 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $272,990 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $272,990 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $272,990 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-03-22
    listed $272,990 Active 233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    The Auburn is a 2-story home with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths and a spacious 1st floor flex space that can act as a separate office space, game room, or guest suite. The primary suite and 2 additional bedrooms are located on the 2nd floor.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,135
• − Property taxes: −$4,321
• − Insurance: −$1,440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,157
• − Management: −$2,157
• − Depreciation: −$8,380
• Taxable loss: −$7,626
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,830
• After-tax cash flow: $-756/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-story home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It has potential for further value increases with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and adds value to the home
• Both Install smart home technology — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and adds value to the home ↑
• Both Install smart home technology — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,781
• Household income: $91,667
• Rent vs Own: 48.4% rent · 51.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1399.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.42%
• Current HPI: 220.403
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-22 Listed $272,990 Zillow